We have to be thoroughly pleased with what we’ve seen from the National Football League, this year. There have been excellent matchups that have not disappointed – think New England and Kansas City in Primetime a few weeks ago and the Packers and Rams, last week – and drama in the storylines – such as Green Bay trading away Ty Montgomery following his costly fumble or the Browns firing Hue Jackson. Most importantly, the spreads have been incredibly kind to us, and we should be grateful that this season has not disappointed.
One week after the popular teams of the Rams, Chiefs, and Patriots all won and covered their games, two-of-the-three failed to do so in the encore. Even the third was at risk for missing its mark, only to be bailed out by a late defensive touchdown. ‘Traps’ continue to hit on a frequent basis, and most stories that the numbers have told were relatively true.
Look at last week as an example. Compared to some of our better weeks, the 8-6 record and 3-3 mark in confidence picks appears to be mediocre. But it isn’t. In fact, it’s the goal. I always explain that a slightly better-than-average winning percentage is all we need to be at or near the top of any standings and, when we have that average, we simply need to avoid a massive fallout.
After a 22-9-2 stretch in confidence picks, it is statistically more likely that we would have losing weeks to creep toward a more reasonable average. We didn’t. Our natural regression was a mere pullback, and we should be pleased that it was so slight, at that. After all, the entire week produced a positive record.
The point is that it was extremely difficult to accept the losing when we were in the middle of a ‘down year,’ but this is what it looks like when the numbers act as they should. So, enjoy it. Because we have been treated to quite a year, so far. And we’re only halfway there.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2018 Season: 32-18-3 (Last Week: 3-3)
(2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (4-Year Total: 236-206-11)
All Picks Against Spread – 2018 Season: 66-47-8 (Last Week: 8-6)
(2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (4-Year Total: 552-486-30)
Listen to Episode 5 of our free podcast here:
Oakland Raiders at San Francisco 49ers
The days of exciting Thursday Night Football games were short-lived. Basically, we had one or two appealing games in a sea of misery. The bloodbath continues, this week.
The Oakland Raiders and San Francisco 49ers – geographical rivals, but two teams that don’t share the same conference – enter Week 9 with a combined record of 2-13. Because of the number of games played, the 49ers actually have the worst record in the National Football League. But, are they the worst team in the league?
In last week’s writeup about the New York Giants, I began to question if winning was going to be become less of a priority with the prospect of a high draft pick looming. The same question could be asked of either team playing on Thursday night, and each might provide a vastly different answer.
The 49ers expected to be competitive, this year. Forget the fact that the team lost its starting quarterback a few weeks into the season – it was already approaching a 1-2 record by the time that happened – it had set a high bar when it gave said quarterback an incredibly large contract, and the market followed suit by setting the over-under win total projection at an aggressive eight-and-a-half. One more loss over the next eight games will cause San Francisco to miss this mark.
Oakland has, however, made decisions that oppose those pushing for competitiveness. As we have noted in the past, the trades the Raiders have made are clearly with the intention of winning in a few years. And it comes at the expense of winning now.
The good news