NFL Picks Success Rate
AGAINST THE SPREAD – 2014-2024
%
Best Confidence Picks (2015)
%
Best Overall Picks (2014)
%
11-Year Confidence Picks
%
11-Year Cumulative
52.4% = AVERAGE BREAKEVEN PERCENTAGE REQUIRED
Standings of Experts’ Picks
AGAINST THE SPREAD – COURTESY OF NFLPickwatch
2019 ATS Accuracy
- 1. Kevin Sherrington - DallasMorningNews - 55.9%
- 2. Ryan Fowler - Pickwatch - 55.6%
- 3. Howie Kussoy - NewYorkPost - 54.7%
- 4. Mario Mergola - Sporfolio - 54.6%
- 5. Tara Sullivan - Boston Globe - 54.4%
- Breakeven Point at -110 Odds - 52.4%
- Average Expert (Min. 240 Picks) - 50.4%
2019 Correct Picks ATS
- 1. Kevin Sherrington - DallasMorningNews - 146
- 2. Ryan Fowler - Pickwatch - 144
- 3. Case Keefer - LasVegasSun - 143
- 4. Mario Mergola - Sporfolio - 142
- 4. Nate Davis - USA Today - 142
- Average Expert (Min. 240 Picks) - 130
2018 ATS Accuracy
- 1. Jamey Eisenberg – CBS – 53.9%
- 2. Mario Mergola – Sporfolio – 53.7%
- 3. Ben Volin – Boston Globe – 53.6%
- 4. Mike Clay – ESPN – 53.2%
- Breakeven Point at -110 Odds – 52.4%
- 5. Chris Simms – Bleacher Report – 50.9%
- Average Expert (Min. 240 Picks) – 49.5%
2017 ATS Accuracy
- 1. Case Keefer – LasVegasSun – 54.9%
- 2. Frank Schwab – Yahoo! – 54.2%
- 3. Mario Mergola – Sporfolio – 53.5%
- 4. Kevin Sherrington – DallasMorningNews – 53.1%
- Breakeven Point at -110 Odds – 52.4%
- 5. Jacob Feldman – MMQB – 52.3%
- Average Expert (Min. 240 Picks) – 51.4%
2015 Correct Picks ATS
- 1. Mario Mergola (now Sporfolio) – 141
- 1. Jason La Canfora – 141
- 3. Pickwatch – Best Defense – 139
- 3. Josh Katzowitz – 139
- Average Expert (Min. 250 Picks) – 127
2014 Correct Picks ATS
- 1. Mario Mergola (now Sporfolio) – 145
- 1. Tim Cowlishaw – 145
- 3. Jason La Canfora – 141
- 4. Neil Greenberg – 138
- Average Expert (Min. 250 Picks) – 130
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We get it…
You have responsibilities. A relationship. A job. You want to be more involved in the world of sports, but the time isn’t always there. So you play fantasy sports. Maybe build a daily lineup. Even pick some games or join an office pool. But without putting in the time to research, you are left guessing.
Our responsibility is to you. Our relationship is with the sport. Our job is to do the legwork so you don’t have to.
Sporfolio is your ‘sports portfolio.’ We predict. They play. You profit.
AS SEEN ON:
See How Much Our Members Earned in 2020
Set the amount you would have risked on each game to see what our 2020 NFL picks against-the-spread would have earned for you. The calculation assumes using a 3:1 ratio of risk for confidence picks to standard picks and even considers fees from standard -110 odds!
NFL Picks
After months of waiting, we go back to our origins with our best-in-class football analysis. From a 53.5% success rate in our confidence picks and 51.9% success rate in all games against-the-spread over the last eleven seasons combined to back-to-back “championships” for most correct against-the-spread picks among experts tracked by NFLPickwatch, we have a unique outlook on the sport of football that is unparalleled throughout the industry.
Returning member? Interested in joining? Either way, read our “Welcome Back, NFL” post and get acquainted with Sporfolio.
NFL Picks Success Rate
AGAINST THE SPREAD – 2014-2024
%
Best Confidence Picks (2015)
%
Best Overall Picks (2014)
%
11-Year Confidence Picks
%
11-Year Cumulative
52.4% = AVERAGE BREAKEVEN PERCENTAGE REQUIRED
Standings of Experts’ Picks
AGAINST THE SPREAD – COURTESY OF NFLPickwatch
2019 ATS Accuracy
- 1. Kevin Sherrington - DallasMorningNews - 55.9%
- 2. Ryan Fowler - Pickwatch - 55.6%
- 3. Howie Kussoy - NewYorkPost - 54.7%
- 4. Mario Mergola - Sporfolio - 54.6%
- 5. Tara Sullivan - Boston Globe - 54.4%
- Breakeven Point at -110 Odds - 52.4%
- Average Expert (Min. 240 Picks) - 50.4%
2019 Correct Picks ATS
- 1. Kevin Sherrington - DallasMorningNews - 146
- 2. Ryan Fowler - Pickwatch - 144
- 3. Case Keefer - LasVegasSun - 143
- 4. Mario Mergola - Sporfolio - 142
- 4. Nate Davis - USA Today - 142
- Average Expert (Min. 240 Picks) - 130
2018 ATS Accuracy
- 1. Jamey Eisenberg – CBS – 53.9%
- 2. Mario Mergola – Sporfolio – 53.7%
- 3. Ben Volin – Boston Globe – 53.6%
- 4. Mike Clay – ESPN – 53.2%
- Breakeven Point at -110 Odds – 52.4%
- 5. Chris Simms – Bleacher Report – 50.9%
- Average Expert (Min. 240 Picks) – 49.5%
2017 ATS Accuracy
- 1. Case Keefer – LasVegasSun – 54.9%
- 2. Frank Schwab – Yahoo! – 54.2%
- 3. Mario Mergola – Sporfolio – 53.5%
- 4. Kevin Sherrington – DallasMorningNews – 53.1%
- Breakeven Point at -110 Odds – 52.4%
- 5. Jacob Feldman – MMQB – 52.3%
- Average Expert (Min. 240 Picks) – 51.4%
2015 Correct Picks ATS
- 1. Mario Mergola (now Sporfolio) – 141
- 1. Jason La Canfora – 141
- 3. Pickwatch – Best Defense – 139
- 3. Josh Katzowitz – 139
- Average Expert (Min. 250 Picks) – 127
2014 Correct Picks ATS
- 1. Mario Mergola (now Sporfolio) – 145
- 1. Tim Cowlishaw – 145
- 3. Jason La Canfora – 141
- 4. Neil Greenberg – 138
- Average Expert (Min. 250 Picks) – 130
Success Stories from Our Picks
“As a long-time follower of Mario’s picks and a subscriber to this site, I’m more than happy to recommend it. More than the picks themselves, however, I am a big fan of the writing, as Mario really lets you into his rationale and betting strategy. This has helped make me a much better bettor, and I am very thankful for that.”
-David (from Montreal)
@MarioMergola Hey Mario - I followed your picks ats all year and you assisted me a bunch! Just want to say thanks.
— David Wighton (@dwighton) February 6, 2016
WINNERS overall!!! It’s a long season and all Mario does year after year, is WIN against the spread.
— Chris Gutierrez (@socalseniors) September 9, 2021
@MarioMergola Mario, wanted to thank you for all the picks v spread all yr! Im in the money thx to you! Cant wait til next yr.
— 3commastequilla (@PaulyPavillain) January 6, 2016
@MarioMergola Thanx for the outstanding season Mario! Excellent analysis as always! Can't wait to read your write up for the WC Games
— Mark K (@StandupRealtor) January 4, 2016
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Recent Posts
2025 NFC Full Season Predictions
Sporfolio’s full season predictions for the National Football Conference in 2025 include a breakdown of every NFC team, a projected record, the expected conference champion, and seven over/under win total picks. Over the last eight seasons, the over/under win total picks have gone 60-40-2!
NFL 2025: Weekly Picks Against the Spread
Mario Mergola breaks down this week’s action and gives an against-the-spread pick for every game.
2025 AFC Full Season Predictions
Sporfolio’s full season predictions for the American Football Conference in 2025 include a breakdown of every AFC team, a projected record, the expected conference champion, and seven over/under win total picks. Over the last eight seasons, the over/under win total picks have gone 60-40-2!
Sporfolio Origins
Created by Mario Mergola – one of the industry leaders in NFL picks against the spread – Sporfolio aims to continue the trend of creative analysis Mergola championed over the past years while writing for XN Sports. During this time, Mergola ranked first among experts’ NFL picks against the spread in back-to-back seasons, as tracked by NFLPickwatch.com. His first two seasons’ of NFL picks against the spread can be found in the archives, while much of his work can still be read on XN Sports. Now, he also contributes to FantasyPros and OwnersBox.
Mario Mergola is also the author of Diamond Dividends: Creative Strategies to Profit Through Fantasy Baseball, and his fantasy baseball rankings are also included in FantasyPros’ expert analysis challenge.
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