Now we’re getting somewhere.
All season, I’ve continued to write about varying our approaches to games based on their situations. Last week, we saw this come to fruition beautifully.
In the past, I’ve written about ‘sets of games.’ We don’t plan to win every single matchup — as nice as it would be, it’s obviously unrealistic — and we generally aim for groups of wins. Underdogs? We love them. We want them to win. ‘Easy picks?’ Not so much.
For this season, I’ve stepped outside of those groups where applicable, and we saw how this is now working in 2020. The Seahawks shouldn’t have been able to cover their spread with ease, but the game was never really in doubt. On the other hand, the Bears and Broncos were perfect ‘traps.’ Both hit.
If we’ve learned anything from the first half of this season, it’s that we have to accept all outcomes as possibilities. Certainly, it’s extremely unlikely that the Jets could have beaten the Chiefs, but it was possible. And the game between the two actually stayed competitive longer than many would think. The least likely outcome at that point was that Kansas City would pull away and win by 26 points. Which it did. And that is why we’ll continue to shift between trends and approaches in this wild year.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2020 Season: 23-23-1 (Last Week: 4-2)
(2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (6-Year Total: 356-297-18)
All Picks Against Spread – 2020 Season: 58-59-2 (Last Week: 9-5)
(2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (6-Year Total: 831-722-49)
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
I’m a writer. I love narratives. I love storylines in games. And I love the spotlight shining on said stories.
The problem is that Thursday Night Football’s matchup between the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers no longer holds the weight of the stories that it should tell.
It should be about the possible revenge sought by the Packers or the continued success that the 49ers find against them. Instead, the story will be about injuries. It will be about those not playing in the game more than those who are.
And of course, these stories will play a tremendous role in the number on which the game ultimately settles.
As of right now, the spread continues to grow. It has to. The 49ers are not only without their starting quarterback, but also without arguably their best player in tight end George Kittle. We’re now asking backup quarterback Nick Mullens to both manage a game against the Packers and avert disaster on national television. And we’re also asking the Packers to not only win, but cover an ever-growing number.
The good news is that the storyline is powerful enough to let it happen.
While I have been selling quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo since the day he was traded to San Francisco, I acknowledge that he is still in a much better class than Mullens — or any other quarterback on the roster. He is a big loss for the team, and he’s a loss that has longstanding repercussions. In the short term, the team can survive without Garoppolo, but only in select matchups. A game against the Packers, who are coming off a tough loss and undeniably seeking revenge, is not the right matchup.
Ideally for the 49ers, they run the ball mercilessly and follow the blueprint set forth by the Vikings in last week’s game. The problem is that this approach is not practical without the threat of the passing game. That’s where the loss of Garoppolo plays the largest role. Even though he only threw the ball a total of 32 times in his team’s two wins against Green Bay in 2019 — including the playoffs — the attention the Packers had to pay to the passing game helped make the rushing attack so effective. Certainly, Mullens can throw — he has a quarterback rating of at least 95.0 in exactly half of his ten career starts — but he is also 0-6 as a starting quarterback when his quarterback rating is less than 100.0. Basically, Mullens has to be great in order to translate to wins.
Green Bay has had this game circled on its calendar since the schedule was released, and the road to a victory just got that-much-easier. The Packers will not miss this opportunity. Green Bay wins by twenty points and covers the spread.
Confidence Pick: Green Bay Packers (-6)
Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons
I should have known better.
Following Week 7’s wild loss to the Lions, I argued that