And there it is.
As soon as it looked like we were getting some momentum, it hit a speedbump. Not an all-out collapse, but break in the upward move. The real shame — and the part that actually annoys me — is that it happened on a week in which we trusted favorites, only to see underdogs dominate again.
The issue is that we’re seeing information held back more often than in the past. Perhaps due to the coronavirus protocols and perhaps just from coaches using that as an excuse to hide news. Garrett Gilbert and Joe Flacco were announced as starting quarterbacks for their respective teams later in the week than usual and, while I never change a pick after it’s released, it would have been nice to see the entire picture before proceeding.
Regardless, we’ve understood the nature of this season from the start, and we’re only halfway through it. There is still plenty of time to recover. After all, we’re gaining a better read on each team with every passing week.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2020 Season: 26-25-1 (Last Week: 3-2)
(2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (6-Year Total: 356-297-18)
All Picks Against Spread – 2020 Season: 64-67-2 (Last Week: 6-8)
(2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (6-Year Total: 831-722-49)
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
While I often hear criticisms about the quality of football played on a given Thursday night, I never mind watching the games. It’s another opportunity for me to enjoy the sport I love so dearly, and it gives the sports world a three-hour window of excitement. That’s the hope, anyway.
On the surface, it looks like we’ll get the chance for entertainment on Thursday. Last week, the matchup had initially carried promise, but was quickly derailed with the bevy of injuries to the 49ers. Now, we have relatively healthy meeting between two teams fighting for a division lead. Great game, right?
Not so fast.
As a football fan, I hope we see a competitive matchup. As an analyst, “hope” is not a word I can even consider.
There’s good news behind that. An exciting game between a defensive-minded Indianapolis Colts team and a top-ten offensive Tennessee Titans team would mean that something deviated too far from the mean. It would probably lead to breakdown of sorts, and it would lead to an unpredictable outcome. We don’t want that. We want the Titans to run the ball — like they always do — and we want the Colts to lean on their defense — like they always do. Because that is predictable.
The other reason we want this is because it leads to Tennessee trying to follow the same game script used by the Ravens in Week 9. Baltimore amassed 110 rushing yards, so why won’t the Titans? Maybe they will, but the Colts don’t lose games when other teams run well. They lose games when they can’t score — Indianapolis is 1-3 when scoring 23 points or fewer and 4-0 when scoring at least 24 points.
According to Pro-Football-Reference, Tennessee has had exactly one game in which its defense provided positive expected points: last Sunday’s win against the Bears and their nonexistent offense.
The Colts can’t be asked to win a back-and-forth slugfest, and that’s why they will control the game as they have for the majority of the season — they rank fourth-best in average time-of-drive. They also regressed hard after scoring progressively more for four consecutive games. Conversely, the Titans are still regressing after a 5-0 start that included an overtime victory and three wins by a combined six points.
Indianapolis rebounds after last week’s home loss with a four-point victory, beating the spread.
Prediction: Indianapolis Colts (+2)
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns
Keeping in the back of our minds how I always write about perception and its impact on a spread, it shouldn’t be overly difficult to consider the perception of the Houston Texans and Cleveland Browns leading up to Sunday’s head-to-head contest. Starting with