Isn’t it amazing? This entire season has been an uphill battle in which we get small bursts of consistency, only to be shuffled around with bouts of randomness. Indeed, that’s part of the game normally, but it’s the lack of trends that’s most concerning.
And still, we got some nice breaks.
The Cardinals’ “Hail Mary” was a ‘push’ in this column and anywhere else that had the spreads locked as of Wednesday or Thursday of last week. Nick Chubb of the Browns stepping out-of-bounds at the one-yard line directly led to a win in a confidence pick. Sure, we almost had another where San Francisco’s Nick Mullens threw an interception in the end zone with a few minutes left, but we can’t win them all.
The good news is that we have recognized these unreliable trends from the start of the year and put ourselves in position to not be burned by them. When it comes to picking games against the spread, that’s half the battle.
The other half is finding ways to get ahead. That’s our goal for the rest of the season.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2020 Season: 29-26-2 (Last Week: 3-1-1)
(2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (6-Year Total: 356-297-18)
All Picks Against Spread – 2020 Season: 72-72-3 (Last Week: 8-5-1)
(2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (6-Year Total: 831-722-49)
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
We haven’t consistently been gifted a set of entertaining Primetime games, but Week 11 contains what-might-be the best three-game set of the season. It starts with the rematch of an earlier night game that did not disappoint.
The Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks meet again after a thrilling, overtime game in Week 7, although the manner in which each team enters the matchup is completely different than it was just a month ago. In Week 7, the undefeated Seahawks were looking to stay ahead in the NFC West race, while the Cardinals were looking to stay alive in it. Fast-forwarding to today, Arizona actually leads the division, as the teams share 6-3 records — also shared with the Rams.
In fairness to both teams, the 6-3 records are both telling and understandable, even if a game-or-two could have gone in the opposite direction. Seattle was always due for a regression because of a truly horrific defense and at least two victories that were decided in the final seconds. Arizona has played relatively decisive games in either direction, but its most recent victory was as fortunate as it gets. The Cardinals won via a ‘Hail Mary’ touchdown pass caught by DeAndre Hopkins with one second remaining in the game. It was, by all other accounts, a loss.
The reality is that both teams need to have their records wiped prior to Thursday’s game. As I just established, each has had its moments in which luck played a role, and the two enter the contest with the winner temporarily claiming the division. With that, we have to gauge how each team will handle the situation.
Simply put, Arizona hasn’t been in this position in years. And it has never been in this position with quarterback Kyler Murray and head coach Kliff Kingsbury. Seattle has. Many times. And Seattle has delivered. Many times. This makes the hurdle Arizona needs to climb that-much-higher.
The good news for the Cardinals is that it should have no problem finding success against the Seahawks’ defense. After all, this is how Arizona mounted a last-minute comeback in the first meeting between the two. But, the Cardinals’ defense has been equally as ineffective, as the team has allowed at least 30 points in three consecutive games. If we can examine the ending of all three contests, we would see that Arizona won the first in overtime after a big comeback, lost the second, and then won the third via the aforementioned “Hail Mary.” Had it not been for heroics, Arizona would be 0-3 in those games. It would also be 0-4 on the season when allowing at least 30 points.
Seattle’s offense has cooled off after the torrid start, but the team still leads the league in scoring and is third in yards-per-game. Last week was the first time, all season, in which it scored fewer than 27 points, but it should easily be viewed as an outlier. Otherwise, Seattle has scored at least 31 points in seven-of-its-nine games.
The best part about the matchup is that the Seahawks’ recent struggles and Arizona’s surge has kept the number small between the two teams. Now, we get the chance to buy into quarterback Russell Wilson and the Seahawks playing at home in Primetime at a discount. Seattle wins by a touchdown and covers the spread.
Prediction: Seattle Seahawks (-3)
Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns
Do I need to say it? I think i need to say it.
Even though the Philadelphia Eagles lost to the Giants in Week 10, we should not be fazed. Why? Because we expected this to happen.
There’s more.