We have quite the offset week ahead of us, where the Primetime games are outstanding, but some of the main slate matchups are underwhelming. This is a constant theme throughout the week, but it’s enhanced because some of the better matchups are lacking direct paths to fantasy stardom.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 11 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If there were ever a team that was actively trying to throw away a season, it is the Eagles. Coming off an ugly loss to the Giants, they once again find themselves in a heated battle in the NFC East with seemingly every other team in the division. A win this week won’t be easy, because the Browns defense should get enough pressure on Wentz to create some turnovers, and the Browns continue to prove they can run the ball at will with their elite running back duo.
Targets: Miles Sanders, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt and Browns defense
Fades: Carson Wentz and Baker Mayfield
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The gameplan for the Cleveland Browns has been clear over recent weeks, but this is partly due to circumstance. They have only played two games, and both were heavily affected by weather. Still, as I have written in the past, the Browns want to run the ball, and they have no problem splitting carries in their backfield. This is actually a good thing, as I would not normally focus on a team with more than one viable option; the Browns run so often that both players get their volume. The Philadelphia Eagles are a disaster on offense, and they just hit their season-low for points scored — which came right after a bye week, too. Overall, I’m not looking for much offense in this game from either side.
Targets: Nick Chubb, Miles Sanders, and both defenses
Fades: Both teams’ passing attacks
Must-Owns: None
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While it is technically not official yet, it seems like that Jameis Winston will be the Saints starting quarterback this week. Call me crazy, but the gunslinging, carefree, Winston makes for an appealing target this week against one of the league’s worst pass defenses. It helps that the Atlanta offense should continue to be productive as they usually are, and that Winston is familiar with the opponent after spending his entire career playing within the same division. This game has definite shootout potential.
Targets: Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley (if active), Hayden Hurst, Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, and Jared Cook
Fades: Todd Gurley II
Must-Owns: Jameis Winston (assuming he is the starter)
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There are a lot of comparisons being drawn from this year’s quarterback situation with the New Orleans Saints to last year’s, but I’m hesitant to trust any of it, let alone actually make a decisions based on the reports. Originally, Jameis Winston was slated to start for New Orleans, but the reports are now that Taysom Hill will be under center. Again, on the topic of “trust,” I don’t trust anything. The exception is Alvin Kamara and probably one player from the Atlanta Falcons — they are fifth in the league in yards and averaging 30.25 points-per-game under interim head coach Raheem Morris — but I’d be careful as a whole.
Targets: Calvin Ridley (if active) and Hayden Hurst
Fades: Too much exposure to this game, and I am fading Taysom Hill everywhere except if he can be used in a non-quarterback roster slot
Must-Owns: Alvin Kamara
Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Football Team
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It is hard to see myself having much interest in this game whatsoever. The Bengals once again showed that they cannot compete against good teams, and their offense is not ready to go against elite defenses, which the Football Team possesses. Washington’s offense looked pretty good with Alex Smith under center, and was able to churn out yards against a mediocre Lions defense. Facing another poor defense, there are viable options for Washington in a game that I think they manage to win for just their third victory of the season.
Targets: Antonio Gibson, J.D. McKissic, Terry McLaurin and Football Team defense
Fades: Bengals offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: When I’m writing my against-the-spread picks column, I will point out horrible matchups that might have some value to us — even if they don’t, I still have to write about them. Said value doesn’t always translate to fantasy value. The good news is that each team actually has some talent, and the ugliness of the matchup might turn people away from it. Still, I wouldn’t be too aggressive trying to find the right players from the Washington Football Team and Cincinnati Bengals.
Targets: Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, and Giovanni Bernard
Fades: Mostly everyone else
Must-Owns: None
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It is nearly impossible to have a read on this game due to the injury concerns to both Matthew Stafford and Teddy Bridgewater. If both quarterbacks are fully healthy and able to play, this game has some definite appeal as both offenses have been good at times this year, and more importantly, they have pretty predictable usage. With that said, if one, or both, of these quarterbacks is unable to play, it is going to be hard to trust either one of these offenses with unreliable backups set to fill in.
Targets: Most offensive players if the quarterbacks are healthy, otherwise either defense is a fine option
Fades: Depends on quarterback situation
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The amount of injuries to the Carolina Panthers is undoubtedly concerning, but there are some sneaky fantasy opportunities everywhere. For starters, the Detroit Lions might get back wide receiver Kenny Golladay. They also might lose quarterback Matthew Stafford. Based on the availability of those two, the Lions clearly have enough talent to target. The real beauty comes from Carolina, where I personally think quarterback P.J. Walker is better than many people realize. If he is announced as the team’s starter, I will probably roll the dice with him in one lineup and not shy away from at least one pass-catcher.
Targets: P.J Walker (if starting), Curtis Samuel, and Adrian Peterson
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Mike Davis
Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While I may sound like a hater, the reality is that I am still not overly impressed with the Steelers undefeated season. Their defense is doing a majority of the heavy lifting, and they are about to face their seventh team of the season that has three or fewer wins this year. The Jaguars have managed to stay competitive the past two games, but I can’t imagine they do so against this Steelers defense. This should be another easy victory for the Steelers.
Targets: Entire Steelers offense
Fades: Entire Jaguars offense
Must-Owns: Steelers defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m fully aware that the Jacksonville Jaguars offense has not spiraled out-of-control with the loss of quarterback Gardner Minshew, but I’m not sure how we can trust anyone besides running back James Robinson on a given week. Even if we do trust Robinson, do we expect him to have success against the ferocious Pittsburgh Steelers defense? Maybe. But, carefully. Otherwise, I would lean on the usual suspects from Pittsburgh as we are seeing the offense round into form and, quite frankly, take advantage of favorable matchups. Sunday’s game is a favorable matchup.
Targets: Ben Roethlisberger, James Conner, Chase Claypool, James Robinson, and Pittsburgh’s defense
Fades: None in particular, but I would be careful with too much exposure to Jacksonville’s offense
Must-Owns: None
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Despite being one of the more important games of the week, it is hard to have a ton of fantasy excitement around this game. Both teams want nothing more than to run the ball endlessly, and then occasionally, the Titans will mix in some play action passing. The Titans offense has struggled this season against the few good defenses they have played as they have totaled less than 300 total yards of offense against the Steelers, Bears and Colts. Given that the Ravens boast a very good defense as well, it is hard to see them having a great showing this week.
Targets: Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Teams keep proving that the blueprint to beat the Baltimore Ravens is to force quarterback Lamar Jackson to throw much more than he and the coaching staff intends. Conversely, the blueprint to lose to the Ravens is to allow Baltimore to run. The Tennessee Titans cannot stop the Ravens’ run game, but the usual problem of “which player thrives” presents itself. The Titans will also have their success on offense, although the output has sputtered in recent weeks — four consecutive games of scoring 24 points or fewer compared to four consecutive games of scoring at least 31 points before that. I will definitely own at least one player from this matchup, and I’m probably leaning most on Tennessee’s passing game.
Targets: J.K Dobbins, Mark Andrews, Ryan Tannehill, and Derrick Henry
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
New England Patriots at Houston Texans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There is no team worse at defending the run than the Houston Texans. They have faced the most rush attempts, allowed the most rushing yards, and they are allowing the most yards per attempt as well. That could not be a bigger issue against a team like the Patriots who run the ball more than any team in the league, and do so quite well. This should be a game in which the Patriots hardly ever ask Cam Newton to throw the ball, and let their run game control the game from the first whistle. The Texans offense should bounce back after an ugly showing last week, but I don’t think it will be enough to overcome their defense’s inability to slow the Patriots run game down.
Targets: Cam Newton, Rex Burkhead, Deshaun Watson, Will Fuller V, and Brandin Cooks
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Damien Harris
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: At the risk of leaning on history and small sample sizes — it’s unavoidable in the National Football League — Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson has done quite well against the New England Patriots in his young career. In three games, Watson has six passing touchdowns, one rushing touchdown, 711 passing yards and 80 rushing yards. It’s not enough to pick Watson as the potential top scorer of the week, but it certainly shouldn’t scare us away from using him. We also saw how dependent the Texans’ offense is on Watson in last week’s dud against the Browns. On the other side of the game, there may not be a way in which Houston’s defense can stop New England’s rushing attack, and it could lead to a laughably-low number of pass attempts for New England.
Targets: Both quarterbacks, Damien Harris (if healthy), Duke Johnson, Will Fuller, and Brandin Cooks
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Against all conventional wisdom, The Dolphins’ defense and Special Teams continue to find ways to win games for the team. While I want to believe that is hard to sustain, they are proving otherwise, and a matchup with the Broncos should allow that trend to continue. That would normally be the case, but if Drew Lock is out this week, which is seeming pretty likely, then it is all but a certainty. Lock has been far from great this year, but the drop off from him to the Broncos other quarterback options is substantial.
Targets: Salvon Ahmed and Matt Brieda
Fades: Broncos offense
Must-Owns: Dolphins defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The spread has given us a clear indication of what we should expect in the game between the Miami Dolphins and Denver Broncos, but the fantasy element is much less reliable. As of this writing, we’re unsure of the starting quarterback for Denver, which poses a major issue as Miami’s defense has been on a ridiculous hot streak. Ultimately, defense should lead the way for both teams, so I’m looking elsewhere for fantasy targets.
Targets: Salvon Ahmed, DeVante Parker, Jerry Jeudy, and Tim Patrick
Fades: Everyone else
Must-Owns: None
New York Jets at Los Angeles Chargers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Joe Flacco and the New York Jets offense appeared to have some things figured out the last time we saw them, but I’m not willing to bet on that happening a second game in a row. This has been a team with a putrid offense all season long that has only exceeded 300 yards of total offense twice with a high mark of 322 total yards. The Chargers offense was just on a streak of three straight games of at least 440 yards of total offense. In the eight games that Justin Herbert has started, the Chargers have exceeded the 400 yard mark five times, and they are coming off their only game of less than 300 yards of offense all season. This should be an ideal bounce back spot for the Chargers who should win comfortably.
Targets: Jamison Crowder, Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry and Chargers defense
Fades: The rest of the Jets offense
Must-Owns: Kalen Ballage
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Los Angeles Chargers have suffered some unbelievable, borderline impossible losses, this year. They catch a break on Sunday. The New York Jets come to town, and the Chargers must metaphorically smell blood in the water. Start anyone from Los Angeles. The Jets will also have some offensive momentum after finally finding the endzone in their last game, but it was an extreme outlier compared to their season-long performances.
Targets: Kalen Ballage, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Jamison Crowder, and Breshad Perriman
Fades: Everyone else from New York
Must-Owns: Justin Herbert
Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We have talked all season long about how effective the Colts defense has been, but there is no defense that I fully expect to shut down the deadly Packers trio of Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones and Davante Adams. The three of them should all be effective enough to produce points for the Packers even in this tough matchup. The Colts aren’t likely to go down without a fight, but it is all but impossible to try to figure out how they are going to move the ball any given week. Between their trio of running backs, trio of tight ends and their trio of wide receivers, it seems like they are loaded with equal parts. I expect the Colts offense to have some success, but outside of Philip Rivers, it is a total guess which player may show up this week and how their usage will shake out.
Targets: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Davante Adams and Philip Rivers
Fades: Most likely the entire Colts offense solely due to the unpredictable nature of their offensive workload
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Between the Indianapolis Colts’ defense and the decent matchup of the Green Bay Packers’ defense and the Colts’ offense, I’m not so sure we should be looking at this head-to-head battle for any offense. Of course, the Packers are always a threat to explode, but wide receiver Davante Adams is dealing with an injury, and Indianapolis’ pass defense is allowing the second-fewest yards-per-game. The Colts also spread the ball around a little too much for my liking, so I’m probably staying away from this game.
Targets: Jonathan Taylor, Davante Adams, and Aaron Jones
Fades: Too much exposure to this game
Must-Owns: None
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I am willing to admit when I have a crazy opinion, and this is one of those times. I find myself believing that the Cowboys are going to beat the Vikings this week. Their defense has shown some signs of improvement over their past couple of games, so I am starting to believe they are past the days of giving up endless yards and points every single game. More so than that, the Vikings are incredibly vulnerable at the cornerback position, and with the immense talent the Cowboys have at wide receiver, and a healthy Andy Dalton expected back under center, I think the Cowboys offense has a good game ahead of them.
Targets: Andy Dalton, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup and Dalvin Cook
Fades: Kirk Cousins
Must-Owns: None, but Cowboys wide receivers in general feel like must-owns for me this week.
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: A few weeks ago, I made a note to myself that I will be targeting every single offense against the Dallas Cowboys’ defense for the foreseeable future. Unfortunately, that commitment appears to have run its course, as Dallas’ defense has finally stopped bleeding points. Does this mean that the Minnesota Vikings are not worth playing? Of course not. I just won’t target a full stack. I also won’t force running back Dalvin Cook into a lineup, where I’d only use him if I have excess funds. Otherwise, I’m intrigued by the Cowboys’ offense returning from a bye week and with quarterback Andy Dalton under center. He hasn’t been great in his short time as the team’s starting quarterback, but he does have a history that should lead to some life on offense.
Targets: Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, Andy Dalton, CeeDee Lamb, and Amari Cooper
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Between the fact that the Raiders upset the Chiefs for their only loss of the season, and the fact that Andy Reid has a history of being incredibly well prepared after a bye week, I am all aboard the idea of Chiefs blowout this week. That decision becomes even easier to buy into when you look at just how bad the Raiders defense has been in a lot of games. I am expecting the Chiefs to score early and often, and while that puts the Raiders passing game in position to rack up yards and points as well, I don’t think they have a ton of success this week as the entire Chiefs team looks for revenge.
Targets: Entire Chiefs offense, Chiefs defense and Darren Waller
Fades: The rest of the Raiders offense
Must-Owns: None, but the Chiefs offense is my favorite of the week
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m never one to take a matchup lightly, but the game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders goes deeper than the numbers. The Raiders handed the Chiefs their only loss of the season, and they celebrated by taking a ‘victory lap’ around the stadium. Kansas City noticed. Even if Las Vegas competes and finds offense again, it will not stop the Chiefs from scoring. I generally like to find a ‘contrarian’ path for a Primetime lineup, but I can’t turn away from the Chiefs’ offense. I have no problem including players from Las Vegas in there, but Kansas City is the main target.
Targets: Everyone from Kansas City (with a preference for Clyde Edwards-Helaire) and Darren Waller
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Buccaneers were exactly what we expected last week coming off their terrible loss to the Saints, but my expectations are much lower this week. Part of that is due to the matchup against a skilled and well coached rams offense to go along with their elite defense. And while all of that is worth noting, the way the Buccaneers have played their previous two Primetime games is my biggest fear. They have looked terrible both times they played in primetime spots, and I am starting to think there is something to that. The Rams are a very difficult team to play against on both sides of the ball, and I think that will show this week as the Rams win a fairly low scoring game.
Targets: Darrell Henderson Jr., Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and Chris Godwin
Fades: The rest of the Buccaneers offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As excited as I am for the Week 11 finale between the Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, I’m hesitant to make a lineup that heavily features this game. The Buccaneers could absolutely shut down the Rams, but the opposite is also true. The other issue is that both teams have more-than-enough playmakers who could get involved, and that limits the touches for any one particular player. In the end, I will always lean on the proven talents of the likes of a Cooper Kupp or Mike Evans, but I’m being careful otherwise.
Targets: Ronald Jones, Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and both defenses (where necessary in a Primetime slate)
Fades: None, but I want most of my offensive players in a Primetime contest to come from the Sunday night game
Must-Owns: None