Well… that was disappointing.
It happens every year. Usually, the key is in limiting it to only one time, but the reality is that we will never have a season without a bad week.
This one just hurts more because of when it happened.
We were climbing steadily. Then, in one fell swoop, we were knocked back down.
We also know what to do next.
We change nothing. Absolutely nothing.
There are underlying reasons as to how we ended up with such a losing week but, as always, I prefer not to highlight them as they sound more like excuses than supporting arguments. Regardless, the important thing is to remember that a handful of games can often swing a week in one direction or another, and we just had them swing against us.
So let’s put ourselves in the best position to have the next set swing in our favor.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2020 Season: 43-37-3 (Last Week: 2-3)
(2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (6-Year Total: 356-297-18)
All Picks Against Spread – 2020 Season: 110-109-5 (Last Week: 5-10-1)
(2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (6-Year Total: 831-722-49)
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
The Minnesota Vikings did all they could to get back into the playoff race, and then they promptly fell out of it. Technically, they aren’t dead yet — and the fact that Minnesota plays before any other team means they won’t be eliminated prior to taking the field — but the situation is bleak.
The good news — for us, anyway — is that Friday’s game appears to be a throwaway in many people’s minds. It’s Christmas, and we aren’t used to seeing football being played on that holiday. Thanksgiving? Of course. It’s part of the tradition. But Christmas? Not so much.
Which also means that people may not pay as close attention as they should.
As always, place yourself in the shoes of those who make the odds. You have the New Orleans Saints playing a nationally-televised home game against a team that couldn’t beat the Bears and is now on the verge of elimination. To put it plainly, why would you make the spread anything small enough to be exposed?
The quick read when someone looks at this matchup is that New Orleans will dominate, so almost any spread is going to “look small” in the eyes of the football-watching world. That is aided by the fact that the Saints can clinch their division with a win. These same people will probably not look back to the Vikings’ performances since a Week 7 bye. Minnesota is 5-3 with only one loss by more than a touchdown.
As I have written often in recent weeks, the Vikings’ offense is far better than many people realize. It’s both efficient and effective. Minnesota ranks fifth in yards-per-game, fourth in yards-per-carry, and seventh in net-yards-per-pass-attempt. Indeed, New Orleans’ defense is outstanding and ranks in the top-four for each of those three categories, but the key is that the Vikings won’t be overmatched. Will it be difficult for Minnesota to win the game? Most likely. But is the spread ignoring how close the game should be? Definitely.
The Saints win by a field goal and clinch the NFC South, but the Vikings beat the spread.
Prediction: Minnesota Vikings (+7)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions
I always pay attention to line movement. Sometimes, it happens too late — way after my article has been published — but other times, the reaction is immediate. That matters to us.
If we pay even closer attention, we can probably predict the direction of movement after certain events. Obviously, injuries play a role in how people view a team, but we also know — especially at this point of the season — each franchise’s perception.
In this particular case, we know the Detroit Lions are an easy ‘sell.’ We know the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a ‘buy.’ Maybe not an easy one, but certainly easy compared to Detroit. And the spread has now ballooned.
As always, we look for the potential of ‘traps’ by a spread looking more enticing than it actually is. When the spread’s increase aligns with the perception of either team, there’s usually a reason.
Said reason is that Tampa Bay will cruise to victory against Detroit.
The path for this outcome is straightforward. The Lions’ defense is easily one of the worst in the league, and Tampa Bay is averaging the seventh-most points-per-game. The opposite side of the matchup is arguably less hopeful for Detroit, as the Buccaneers are allowing the sixth-fewest yards in the league, while the Lions rank 19th in yards gained.
The reality is that the Lions should score. Even in big losses, they put points on the scoreboard. Still, they can’t stop opponents from pulling away, and Tampa Bay has yet to do this in a Primetime game.
That’s where we have a potential oddity in the trend.
The Buccaneers have struggled in nationally-televised games, but they continue to thrive offensively in the early window. With this game on a Saturday, but the usual timeslot, we should see Tampa Bay break out of its rut. It may not actually matter, and it may also not carry through to a potential playoff game, but it’s worth noting that this game doesn’t exactly follows the trend that has led to struggles.
The Buccaneers win by seventeen points and cover the spread.
Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
The San Francisco 49ers losing to the Cowboys, last week, was downright unacceptable. Indeed, the 49ers were extremely unlikely to make the playoffs, but the game setup was perfect, and they failed. While this is annoying for our picks, it also presents us with another opportunity to buy back into the team. Because San Francisco carries tremendous value against the Arizona Cardinals.
The Cardinals moved closer to a playoff berth with a win against the Eagles, but we are continually seeing that nothing will come easy to Arizona. Prior to the season, people tried to make a comparison between this year’s Cardinals and last year’s Ravens, but these are two completely different teams. The records, as of today, are an indication of that. Still, the expectation is that Arizona will make it to the playoffs. It might happen, as it doesn’t need a tremendous amount of help, but again, we aren’t looking at a team that is doing things “easily.”
Think back to Opening Day of this season. The 49ers were favored against the Cardinals. Arizona won outright. It sparked a direction for both teams that would be followed to this day. Now, as they meet, we can’t forget their first showdown. Because the 49ers certainly haven’t forgotten.
In three career games against San Francisco, the Cardinals’ Kyler Murray has done quite well, but not outstanding. He has combined for at least two touchdowns in each outing, but the overall results are more noteworthy than the personal production. Murray has a quarterback rating of at least 100 in both losses, but fell under 80 in his lone win. This isn’t indicative of what will happen on Sunday, but it does show that Murray is not directly responsible for what the Cardinals do. Instead, the overall rush offense is the key.
The Cardinals are an impressive 6-1 in games in which they have rushed for at least 150 yards as a team, and 2-5 elsewhere. This isn’t surprising. Many teams run the ball with a lead. Still, it’s more important for Arizona, as they rank fifth in the league in rush attempts. They want to run.
And the 49ers rank fifth-best in yards-allowed-per-carry.
The Cardinals are certainly not a bad team, but they have to make strides in order to avoid a surprise loss to the 49ers.
San Francisco gets its revenge, winning by a single point and beating the spread.
Confidence Pick: San Francisco 49ers (+5)
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders
On paper, Saturday night’s game between the Miami Dolphins and Las Vegas Raiders appears to be the most competitive of the four games before Sunday’s main schedule hits. At least, that’s what the spread says.
The reality is that, by the time three other games have been played, there’s a high probability that at least one of them was exciting. This is the National Football League, and entertainment is everywhere. Still, I lead with this because those who make picks will likely pause at this matchup and do a quick recap of where each team has been prior to the head-to-head showdown.
For the Raiders, these people will note that the team was dismantled by the Falcons, almost lost to the Jets, got crushed by the Colts, and then lost to the Chargers. Looking at that stretch, it’s easy to throw away the Raiders.
The people will then look at the Dolphins. They will see three-wins-in-four-games, where the only loss was to the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs. And by only six points, at that.
This just became an “easy” pick.
And we know there is nothing “easy” in picking games against-the-spread.
Miami is also leading the league in against-the-spread wins, and that makes them a target for people looking to continually “trust” the same franchise. Conversely, the Raider are not only losing games, but doing so as favorites. In this particular matchup, Miami is giving points, but it will appear like a small price to pay for the team that has continually delivered. Whereas we will view this as a “premium added that does not convey value.”
The Dolphins’ scoring defense is tremendous, as the team ranks best in the league in points-allowed-per-game. What often gets overlooked is the run defense, which ranks fifth-worst in yards-per-carry.
Conveniently, the Raiders prefer to run the football, and they often have success when doing so. Las Vegas is 1-5 when failing to rush for 100 yards and 6-2 when reaching that mark.
We also get a nice boost from the Raiders playing their third consecutive home game while the Dolphins travel for the first time in four weeks.
All told, the spread is on the wrong side of the game.
Las Vegas wins by a field goal and beats the spread.
Prediction: Las Vegas Raiders (+3)
Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs
I always start by asking the same question,