I often question if I should start my Week 1 picks article before my season-long predictions columns. That’s because so much of what I write for one translates to the other. In the end, I never take that thought too seriously because so many conflicts are instantly created.
As I look down the list of games for this first week of the season, I’m drawn to lean on what I just wrote as an overall expectation. That’s where we need to approach with some level of caution. Because there are advantages to be had, but it is also risky to determine that one game to open a season is truly going to define how the rest of the year unfolds.
I lead with this because I know I am going to mention the season-long predictions repeatedly in this article. It happens every year.
But, at the same time, we also find tremendous value in these first few weeks every year.
And, with that, we begin another season of NFL picks against the spread!
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or Fanatics Sportsbook (formerly PointsBet). All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2025 Season: — (Last Week: —)
(2024 Season: 65-57) (2023 Season: 63-61-4) (2022 Season: 54-54-5) (2021 Season: 55-50) (2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (11-Year Total: 646-561-30)
All Picks Against Spread – 2025 Season: — (Last Week: —)
(2024 Season: 148-136-1) (2023 Season: 142-135-8) (2022 Season: 143-132-9) (2021 Season: 158-126-2) (2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (11-Year Total: 1554-1379-76)
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
I totally get it. I completely see the vision as to why the Philadelphia Eagles are favored by a such a significant margin to open the season. Part of it comes from the fact that it won the Super Bowl last year, but we also know that this season’s main storyline for the Dallas Cowboys moved from a new head coach — and one who I do not trust to lead the franchise to victory in Brian Schottenheimer — to the trade of a key player in Micah Parsons.
Put another way, there is nothing but negativity surrounding the Cowboys. And now they will be placed in the national spotlight to start the season where everyone will be watching.
Give me the underdogs here. There’s no way around it. The Eagles can absolutely come out of the gate firing on all cylinders and put together a perfect gameplan, but picks against-the-spread are about value and trying to find the edge, and Dallas embodies that nicely on Thursday. The Cowboys also take another hit in perception when we see that they lost both games against Philadelphia last year by a combined score of 75-13. And still, despite the spread being large, it isn’t disrespectful to Dallas.
We should follow suit and respect what the Cowboys can do in this matchup, even if they fall short in the end.
The Eagles win by four points, but Dallas beats the spread.
Prediction: Dallas Cowboys (+8.5, -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers – in Brazil
I don’t like it. I understand why these two division rivals are playing a nationally-televised, international game, but I don’t like the matchup.
Because