I now find myself, on a weekly basis, shaking my head with muted surprise. Nothing we have seen is shocking in the sense that we cannot accept it. But nothing is defined, either. We are six full weeks into the year already and it feels like nothing has actually begun.
We can also see this reflected in some parts of the standings. There are a few divisions with runaway winners — or losers — as of now, but mediocrity is everywhere. Across-the-board, only two teams have records of 5-1, but ten enter this week at 4-2. Another seven teams have three wins.
As I continue to write, we shouldn’t hate this setup. It just means that we need to be ready for a few teams to take off and soar up the standings. If anything, we’ve already seen a handful crumble — we could probably name at least five teams immediately for which we can no longer consider the playoffs.
Still, there is room to grow. For some of the teams in the league. And for our picks.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or Fanatics Sportsbook (formerly PointsBet). All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2025 Season: 21-16 (Last Week: 4-3)
(2024 Season: 65-57) (2023 Season: 63-61-4) (2022 Season: 54-54-5) (2021 Season: 55-50) (2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (11-Year Total: 646-561-30)
All Picks Against Spread – 2025 Season: 46-47 (Last Week: 8-7)
(2024 Season: 148-136-1) (2023 Season: 142-135-8) (2022 Season: 143-132-9) (2021 Season: 158-126-2) (2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (11-Year Total: 1554-1379-76)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
I wrote about it last week, but the Pittsburgh Steelers are actually one of the worst in the league. Of course, their record does not indicate that, but this is why I constantly praise head coach Mike Tomlin for his impossible track record of success. Still, if we look under-the-hood, we see that the Steelers have gained the fourth-fewest yards-per-game and allowed the eighth-most yards-per-game. They also only have a point differential of plus-12 despite only one loss on the year.
The problem is that the Cincinnati Bengals are considerably worse in every way. Not only have they tallied the second-fewest yards-per-game and allowed the second-most yards-per-game, but they have a hefty minus-80 point differential. The average score of a given game is approximately a 30-17 loss.
That’s not a pretty picture for either team, and it puts us in a position to start the week with one of its worst matchups.