NFL Picks: 2026 AFC Full Season Predictions

Turnover. It’s the name of the game in the National Football League. And I even wrote about it in last year’s introduction.

Why am I leading with it again?

Because, in addition to the changes in the standings that are so inherent to how the sport is built, we enter 2026 with ten head new head coaches — some are returning veterans, but new to their respective teams. That’s basically one-third of the league, and it is tied for the most in an offseason — it happened four other times, and most recently in 2022.

What’s most interesting about this massive shift is that, in a league where stability is rewarded, the metaphorical door is wide open for plenty of teams to take advantage simply based on their own continuity.

If they actually will take advantage of that is a completely different story.

Below are the full season predictions for the 2026 American Football Conference, with top over/under win-total plays highlighted where applicable. Over/under win-totals were taken as advertised from DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and Caesers Sportsbook. In the event that different win totals were shown across the Sportsbook by a half-game, the win total up to -160 was used. In the past, -140 was the limit, but Sportsbooks have since adjusted their numbers.

AFC East

Miami Dolphins – 3-14 – 4th in AFC East

I will admit that I was not sure how the football-watching world would view the Miami Dolphins team entering this season. After all, they moved on from both their head coach and quarterback, but that could have been seen as a positive. It wasn’t. The over-under win total is eye-popping, and it is clear that a Dolphins franchise that has almost certainly played for a high draft pick in the past will be doing so again this season. The irony is that I’m not so sure the AFC East would have been as lopsided as it now appears if Miami were to have tried to compete, but a rookie head coach trying to take a quarterback with six career starts — none of which have been with the Dolphins — in Malik Willis is not inspiring.

New York Jets – 4-13 – 3rd in AFC East

There are catastrophes, and then there are the possibilities that could happen with the New York Jets. I am always upfront about being a fan and, thus, paying close attention to them, but that is exactly why I am focusing on this season not as a standalone year but as a continuation from 2025. Simply put, every single move the Jets have made — and, in some cases, not made, like choosing not to let go of head coach Aaron Glenn — appears to be in service of having a bad season so they can secure another top pick in next year’s draft. The problem? Many of the third-party reports and the over-under win total is just a little more positive than it should be. This disconnect is frightening because, if New York were to win more than a handful of games, it would continue its never-ending chase for mediocrity at best. Given the history of the franchise, that’s probably what will happen, although I still expect the two-season arc to complete with a horrible — consequently, better in the long run — record. I just don’t like the number attached to it enough to move forward with confidence.

New England Patriots – 9-8 – 2nd in AFC East – UNDER 10.5 Wins (-140 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

There are just so many directions in which the New England Patriots could go. For starters, New England has the mathematical weight pulling against it where it reached a mark — 14 wins — that simply isn’t likely to be repeated. But outside of the numbers, we have the genuinely newsworthy situation involving head coach  Mike Vrabel — I have often argued that Vrabel is among the best in the league, and he was the reason why I picked the New England to go from a 3-win team to a playoff squad last year. This puts the Patriots — and, by extension, us — in a strange position. I have seen plenty of examples where a franchise is in the middle of some sort of turmoil or scandal and actually rallies around it instead of crumbles because of it. The problem is that those rallying cries have a shelf-life, and negativity often wins out in the end. Finally, we have to factor in the same comment that was made countless times last year during New England’s incredible run. to a Super Bowl appearance. That is, the competition it faced was embarrassingly bad. In fact, it was one of the worst in recent history. That does not bode well for a New England that made such a dramatic turnaround — winning a whopping ten more games last season than in 2024 — and already has regression looming in the aforementioned points. With all this, I probably started this blurb incorrectly. The direction in which the Patriots will go is almost certainly “down.” It’s just a matter of how far down in the win column they will fall. The combination of these powerful factors all compounding likely means New England is looking at a comparatively disappointing season, outright missing the playoffs.

Buffalo Bills – 12-5 – AFC East Winner

If you’ve read my work over the years, then you know I not only hate leaning on the seemingly obvious route, but I hate feeling like I am about to lean on the seemingly obvious route because there are so few alternatives. Such is the case with the Buffalo Bills and my positioning of them as division champions. The reality is that I absolutely expect a regression for a Bills team that is replacing long-time head coach Sean McDermott and continues to rely on quarterback Josh Allen who the football-watching world loves to follow but regularly turns the ball over too often for the praise he receives. On top of that, Allen has won double-digit regular season games for seven consecutive seasons and only appeared in two Conference Championships, losing both. But this is why I started this particular blurb as I did. If I am projecting the Jets and Dolphins to fight for the top pick in the draft and pushing the former division winner in the Patriots outside of the playoff picture, then even an expected regression won’t be enough to knock the Bills out of the postseason. If anything, this sets up for a possible regression next season, and I’m sure I will return to this writeup at that time.

AFC South