It was such a beautiful week. There’s no other way to put it.
I always include the caveat that, just because a trend has worked in the past, it does not mean it will happen every single time. Still, even if the results don’t consistently point in our direction, the overreaction we want to read will always be present in Week 2.
Alas, it is now Week 3.
The good news is that we do have the continuation of overreaction, and it is usually found in the form of overcorrecting from last week’s overreaction. It’s a never-ending cycle.
As always, our focus is to try to find the disconnect between perception and reality, and we can do that best by applying the same approach to this week as we just did previously. The only difference is that our sample size has doubled from 60 minutes to 120.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or Fanatics Sportsbook (formerly PointsBet). All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2026 Season: 9-5 (Last Week: 6-1)
(2024 Season: 65-57) (2023 Season: 63-61-4) (2022 Season: 54-54-5) (2021 Season: 55-50) (2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (2025 Season: 63-53-1) (12-Year Total: 709-614-31)
All Picks Against Spread – 2026 Season: 21-11 (Last Week: 10-6)
(2024 Season: 148-136-1) (2023 Season: 142-135-8) (2022 Season: 143-132-9) (2021 Season: 158-126-2) (2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (2025 Season: 151-133-1) (12-Year Total: 1705-1512-77)
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers
For as much as I wrote one of my favorite words last week, there is about to be plenty of “overreaction” to start our next set of games.
It begins with Thursday Night Football. The Green Bay Packers barely escaped disaster — and an 0-2 start — with a road victory, while the Atlanta Falcons will turn to a quarterback who missed the first two games of the season with an injury. It’s worth noting that, when healthy, it didn’t seem like Atlanta was too eager to get Michael Penix, Jr. on the field anyway.
This is where we will immediately find overreaction. And we have the news about the starting quarterback to highlight when — if at all — said overreaction took place.
Think about the narrative behind