We are reaching the point of no return. It is make-or-break time.
Entering Week 9, the Falcons, Cowboys, Saints, and Chargers were arguably the easiest teams to target for potential wins – given their matchups and recent history. All four teams won and covered their spreads. There were no ‘letdowns.’ Not one. Easy picks. Easy wins. In fact, two weeks ago, we specifically targeted Week 9 as a potential shift for the tide in the absence of New England. Wrong again.
Now beyond the midpoint of the 2016 NFL season, it is apparent that this year has deviated from a ‘typical’ path. Whether it is decreased ratings, split attention with the presidential election and a World Series filled with history, or a subtle change in how people are consuming the sport, the football is bouncing a bit differently. It is now time to ask the same question that always arises when trends, patterns, or any traceable numbers begin to outperform at an outrageous pace. “Will it continue?”
Not everything. It can’t.
Removing all opinion and subjective reasoning from the conversation, we can hone in on at least one fact. Both the election and a World Series that included the Cubs and Indians are now over. Perhaps it has no impact on the state of the National Football League, but it is an undeniable truth that Week 10 is a post-election set of games and, by definition, different from the last nine.
We might have actually already seen the attention slowly creep back towards football, as many people are arguing that Week 9’s conclusion – Monday Night Football between the Seahawks and Bills – was one of the “best games of the season.” Was it? Or were people just more inclined to watch?
It is also interesting that such claims are being made after a week that featured not only the four aforementioned ‘easy’ teams winning, but one in which favorites had their best showing of the season – by our spreads, 8-3-2. As favorites tend to gain more attention when covering spreads, this could draw more eyeballs back to the television in the coming weeks.
The debates and other televised events that have likely chipped away at viewers’ attention have been replaced with your regular scheduled programming. By our estimation, this is the increase in ‘upsets’ and tight games that we have grown accustomed to seeing over the years.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2016 Season: 28-32-1 (Last Week: 1-5)
(2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2)
All Picks Against Spread – 2016 Season: 61-68-4 (Last Week: 4-7-2)
(2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4)
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
It just had to be the Cleveland Browns playing on Thursday night, didn’t it? After the trends aggressively point in the direction of home teams and favorites on Thursday night games – both are 6-3 against the spread in 2016 – the road underdog in a divisional matchup just had to be the only winless team in the league. Making matters worse, said winless team will be facing an opponent that just beat its bitter rival and moved into first place – via a tiebreaker in the AFC North.
When we pull apart the pieces of the matchup between the Browns and Ravens, we can begin randomly assigning points from Baltimore to Cleveland. The Ravens are, of course, better than the Browns on nearly all fronts and have little concern of losing the game outright, but can they afford to throw points in Cleveland’s direction without regard?