Now, it gets tricky.
Despite our best statistical week against the spread of the season – based on differing websites, this ranged anywhere from 10-5-1 to 12-4 – Week 12 surprisingly did little to establish a trend or direction. Indeed, the Patriots and Cowboys – two of the ‘easiest’ teams to pick, generally – finally failed to cover spreads – conveniently, on the same week – but nearly every other trend was balanced.
What did end up working in Week 12 is more of what has been the norm for 2016 – a relatively high amount of randomness. Both favorites and underdogs enjoyed success at different times – all five underdogs the played in the late afternoon on Sunday, Sunday night, or Monday night beat the spread while favorites owned Thanksgiving and the early afternoon games on Sunday. Without trends, we are forced to pick on a game-by-game basis which, contrary to what common sense would suggest, is not the best way to approach a full weekend worth of NFL action.
Thankfully, Week 13 appears to be an even mix of the aforementioned random, sporadic ‘toss-up’ matchups with some excellent ‘traps’ laid out. In fact, a thorough review of the entire slate as a whole suggests that we might have our best group of ‘traps’ in a long time, even though there still appears to be no pending shift in the momentum.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2016 Season: 38-41-2 (Last Week: 3-4)
(2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2)
All Picks Against Spread – 2016 Season: 81-90-6 (Last Week: 11-5)
(2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4)
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings
In any other season, under any other circumstance, if the trends held as they used to, we would have made this pick immediately. We would have even made it a confidence pick. But we must acknowledge that 2016 has been an outlier. A year in which the ‘easy’ picks have won and ‘traps’ have been side-stepped.
Yet still, one is set.
In essence, this is it. The season is approaching the final quarter of play and, if a move were to be made, it would have to happen now. If the ‘easy picks’ were ever to suffer, it would be on national television with the team that has handed out the most ‘free money.’
Prior to the release of this week’s spreads, any games including the Cowboys and Patriots – two of the teams that had unsustainable stretches against the spread finally snapped – were key to follow. New England’s game against a far inferior opponent plays into the large spread, but Dallas is about to travel to Minnesota to face one of the most ferocious defenses in the league. Before the numbers were released, we had to make a general assessment of what was to come.
As always, the number at which the point spread is set will speak volumes. Anything near a touchdown worth of points is likely an indication that the Cowboys are not only that much better than Minnesota in general, but – and this is the key to trying to find the hidden meaning in spreads – that much better than Minnesota on Thursday. Anything in the range of a field goal worth of points would simply be a ‘trap.’ An instant ‘buy’ on for Dallas’ supporters that would certainly lead to a loss. At least, in any other season.
To borrow a common theme from many of our other picks’ columns and articles following losing weeks, picking games against the spread is not easy. Despite the standings of most pools currently being led by those who have watched fewer minutes of football than you have spent reading these articles, it is still a mirage. Albeit, one that has lasted longer than we would like. But one that isn’t real.
We are running out of time. So are those who make the spreads. The same people that are crushed by Dallas continuing to cover the spread week-after-week. But, if the spread is willing to remain small despite how rarely this trend has worked in 2016, we must be willing to remain steadfast in our methods.
Thankfully, the avenue for how the Vikings beat the spread on Thursday is extremely clear-cut. Minnesota’s defense has allowed the third-fewest yards and second-fewest points in the league, while also ranking in the top-five of all categories against the pass. The Vikings still have not allowed more than 26 points in a single game and, after famously squandering a 5-0 record with five losses in their next six games, Minnesota still has a chance to recover in the thickening NFC North race. In addition, being the underdog on a Thursday night game has not been kind, in general, but usually because the teams are playing on short rest. This is not the case for the Cowboys and Vikings, as they will be exactly seven games removed from the last time they took the field.
Of course, the major issue with Minnesota’s potential ‘upset’ is its nonexistent offense. Ranked last in the league in yards gained, the Vikings have not scored more than 20 points in a game – without the help of defense and special teams directly contributing via touchdowns – since Week 5. Then again, Minnesota’s offense struggles mightily because of its complete lack of a running game. Against Dallas, taking to the air is still the preferred method-of-attack, as the Cowboys have allowed the second-most passing yards in the league.
Last week, we finally saw the end of the Cowboys’ improbable run against the spread. This week, we finally see the end of the Cowboys’ improbable winning streak. Minnesota wins by a field goal and beats the tantalizingly small spread.
Prediction: Minnesota Vikings +3
Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons
Despite the relative lack of success for some trends that we hold in high regard year-after-year, we are always on the lookout for new patterns. Often times, these are presented in rule changes and take some time to develop. Thankfully, a quiet pair of games earlier in the season have been the direct result of relatively recent league decision regarding a highly-debated rule, and we can apply it to Sunday’s non-conference matchup between the Chiefs and Falcons.