Finally. Finally, a move was made. And finally, we have a week set up for excitement.
We began last week’s column with the notion that a relatively random set of outcomes had been featured recently and mentioned that this lack of a developing trend placed the state of picks on proverbial thin ice. In Week 13, the ice cracked, and one side of the scale crashed through: underdogs.
Favorites went 10-5 in Week 13 but, as much as we love to lean on underdogs, we managed a winning week, regardless. Remaining afloat when such moves occur is critical to success – especially with the struggles we have endured, this season – as it gives us an edge when another shift occurs. But, the anticipation for Week 14 is not built solely on the one-sided nature of last week. It is enhanced by the magnitude of can’t-miss, excellent matchups that just-so-happen to be littered throughout this upcoming schedule of NFL action.
The 10-2 Raiders begin the week with a divisional matchup. The Giants and Cowboys will be in the spotlight on Sunday night. And the New England Patriots will host the Baltimore Ravens to close out the weekend. With that, Week 14 might be the most exciting slate of games we have seen in the last month.
With excitement comes more attention from random eyes. With more attention from the non-dedicated fan, more ‘traps’ can be set.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2016 Season: 40-45-2 (Last Week: 2-4)
(2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2)
All Picks Against Spread – 2016 Season: 89-97-6 (Last Week: 8-7)
(2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4)
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
There is improbable, and then there is downright incredible. In the case of the Oakland Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs, both teams fit the mold of ‘mind-boggling, impossible outcomes.’
The Raiders were set up perfectly to fall into a ‘trap’ in Week 13. They did. Oakland trailed by 15 points midway through the third quarter of its home game against Buffalo, only to outscore the Bills 29-0 in the latter third of the game. It is one thing to sidestep a ‘trap,’ but it’s a completely different discussion when one falls in and then erupts out.
The Kansas City Chiefs were also poised to regress after winning an insane, 75-minute contest against their division rivals – in Denver – only to beat the Falcons by a few ridiculous plays – obviously, including the interception returned for a two-point conversion. The weight of the Chiefs’ recent games continues to grow, yet they continue to prevail.
The insanity of the AFC West does not end with just the last few games. It stretches back to 2013, where the Kansas City Chiefs were an eleven-win Wild Card team. The Chiefs, again, won eleven games without winning the division in 2015. Now, we are only two Kansas City wins – or one Oakland win – away from seeing an eleven-win Wild Card team emerge from the AFC West for the third time in four years. Consistency as its finest.
In past weeks, we have argued against both the Raiders and Chiefs for different reasons. Oakland’s incredibly poor defense – allowing the third-most yards in the league – constantly puts its now-.833 winning percentage at risk, while Kansas City tends to rely on streaks of unparalleled great play to propel itself forward in a given season. We sell basically every other winning streak from every other franchise. Except Kansas City. This is what the Chiefs do – as stated in past weeks, Kansas City has now achieved a winning streak of at least five games in each of Andy Reid’s four seasons as the team’s head coach.
The threat of a ‘revenge’ game is at play for Oakland, but it is overshadowed by a trip to Kansas City in front of an excellent home crowd on national television. With the Raiders now escaping with three wins in their last five games, despite low late-game odds – they won all five games, but three were specifically via late-game heroics – they fall into the pattern of the Dolphins prior to last week. Taking to the road – to actually play in another team’s home – for the first time since before Halloween, Oakland is finally ready to regress, aided by cold temperatures and a Chiefs secondary with the second-most interceptions in the league.
Kansas City wins by four points and narrowly covers the spread.
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs -3
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills
They may not have played nationally-televised, standalone games, but the Steelers and Bills were certainly in the spotlight in Week 13. Pittsburgh held serve at home against an over-extended Giants team, while the Bills carried a 15-point lead midway through the third quarter of their game in Oakland, only to watch the Raiders score 29 unanswered points. Neither game flew under-the-radar.