Welcome to the Monday edition of the daily fantasy hockey morning coffee. We start the week with a small three-game slate to work with for our daily fantasy hockey needs.
Tonight’s Slate
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Toronto Maple Leafs (Toronto, -115, 6 over/under)
Florida Panthers @ Edmonton Oilers (Edmonton, -140, 6 over/under)
Chicago Blackhawks @ Arizona Coyotes (Chicago, -130, 5.5 over/under)
The Chicago Blackhawks are in a free fall with five straight losses and 18 goals allowed over the current five-game losing streak. At the start of the year I never would have thought I would be wavering on if I should stack up against the Coyotes with the Blackhawks … tonight I am. But we do still have to consider this is a Coyotes team that has also lost five of their past six games and has allowed 23 goals over that time — with five power play goals allowed over that time.
Even though Chicago has lost five straight they have been generating plenty of scoring chances and their SCF/60 over their past 10 games of 32.88 is the second best in the NHL – though Jonathan Toews recently pointed to Chicago’s lack of quality chances as a big problem right now. Mark Lazerus of The Chicago Sun-Times pointed out after Chicago’s 3-0 loss to Minnesota, “The Hawks dominated the shots (Devan Dubnyk made 44 saves, Glass finished with 16), but precious few of them were dangerous. The Hawks merely fired unscreened shots from afar, or flung pucks harmlessly on net with no follow-up.” This makes the Arizona goaltender (either Raanta or Wedgewood) a very intriguing tournament option tonight. While Chicago’s SCF/60 is the second-best in the NHL over the past 10 games, their HDCF/60 is only for 13th in the league. It’s a risky move as Arizona’s team save percentage of .870 percent is the second worst in the league this month (Chicago’s is the worst at .864 percent). If Chicago peppers Arizona with a lot of low quality scoring chances and Arizona can get the win on home ice we have the perfect recipe for a tournament goaltender.
This month, over five games, Arizona has allowed an NHL second-worst 4.00 goals against er game. Per Corsica, Arizona has an xGA/60 of 2.83 at home — 11th-worst in the league. Chicago, on the road, has an xGF/60 of 3.00 — fifth-best in the league. So their are cases for both sides of this game — and Patrick Kane has 21 shots on goal over Chicago’s five-game losing streak. For the sake of tournaments I want Arizona on home ice tonight — and to be clear — steer away from this for cash games. Arizona has the lowest implied goal total of the night and there is a lot of risk going this route.
Our Arizona Snapshot
| Scor | Scor | Scor | Goal | Goal | Goal | Assi | Assi | Assi | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Pos | G | A | PTS | EV | PP | SH | EV | PP | SH | S | BLK |
| Clayton Keller | LW | 15 | 23 | 38 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 144 | 23 |
| Derek Stepan | C | 10 | 25 | 35 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 0 | 147 | 29 |
| Christian Dvorak | C | 8 | 18 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 94 | 40 |
| Alex Goligoski | D | 6 | 20 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 80 | 89 |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson | D | 8 | 17 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 138 | 55 |
| Christian Fischer | RW | 13 | 11 | 24 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 110 | 15 |
| Max Domi | LW | 3 | 20 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 108 | 22 |
| Brendan Perlini | LW | 14 | 7 | 21 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 97 | 21 |
| Jason Demers | D | 4 | 13 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 75 | 60 |
| Tobias Rieder | RW | 6 | 8 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 72 | 31 |
| Nick Cousins | C | 9 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 67 | 22 |
| Jordan Martinook | LW | 4 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 67 | 25 |
| Kevin Connauton | D | 4 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 58 | 35 |
| Brad Richardson | C | 3 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 61 | 36 |
| Jakob Chychrun | D | 1 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 54 | 34 |
| Zac Rinaldo | LW | 4 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 47 | 15 |
| Niklas Hjalmarsson | D | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 67 |
| Luke Schenn | D | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 79 |
| Richard Panik | RW | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 6 |
| Team Total | 128 | 221 | 349 | 99 | 27 | 2 | 169 | 50 | 2 | 1652 | 763 |
Our Arizona Stacks
Line One
BRENDAN PERLINI $3.6K
DEREK STEPAN $5.6K
CLAYTON KELLER $4.6K
Line Two
ZAC RINALDO $3.0K
MAX DOMI $4.4K
TOBIAS RIEDER $3.6K
Line Three
RICHARD PANIK $3.9K
CHRISTIAN DVORAK $4.5K
CHRISTIAN FISCHER $5.0K
Power Play Stack
BRENDAN PERLINI
CHRISTIAN DVORAK
RICHARD PANIK
DEREK STEPAN
(D) OLIVER EKMAN-LARSSON $5.1K
Power Play Two Stack
CLAYTON KELLER
MAX DOMI
CHRISTIAN FISCHER
(D) JAKOB CHYCHRUN $3.6K
(D) ALEX GOLIGOSKI $4.2K
Clayton Keller has one goal and one assist over his past two games. Derek Stepan has one goal and four assists over his past three games. Alex Goligoski has one goal and three assists over his past three games. Oliver Ekman-Larsson has two assists over his past three games.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have won seven of their past eight games and have been explosive on offense over that stretch. Over their past 10 games Toronto’s SCF/60 of 31.91 is good for fifth-best in the NHL — and Toronto’s HDCF/60 of 12.67 is good for fourth-best in the NHL over the past 10 games. Toronto has scored 20 goals over their past four games and have averaged 33.8 shots per game over that four-game stretch.
But, in a complete opposite scenario of the Chicago vs. Arizona game, Toronto faces a Tampa Bay team that has won four of their last five games and lead the NHL in goals per game this month with an average of 4.40 goals. Additionally, Tampa Bay has scored six power play goals over their past five games. Toronto’s advanced stats are better as Tampa Bay only has a SCF/60 of 25.53 and a HDCF/60 of 9.56 — but they have been putting their chances away with a shooting percentage of 11.26 percent over their past 10 games. Adjusted for venue Toronto has an xGF/60 of 2.83 in five on five situations, when adjusted for all scoring situations Toronto has an xGF/60 of 3.73. While I believe both teams are nice plays tonight I’ll lean heavier on Toronto tonight.
Our Toronto Snapshot
| Scor | Scor | Scor | Goal | Goal | Goal | Assi | Assi | Assi | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Pos | G | A | PTS | EV | PP | SH | EV | PP | SH | S | BLK |
| Auston Matthews | C | 26 | 18 | 44 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 144 | 49 |
| Mitch Marner | C | 12 | 30 | 42 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 20 | 10 | 0 | 130 | 17 |
| William Nylander | C | 12 | 30 | 42 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 129 | 9 |
| Nazem Kadri | C | 18 | 17 | 35 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 141 | 17 |
| James van Riemsdyk | LW | 22 | 12 | 34 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 166 | 18 |
| Morgan Rielly | D | 5 | 28 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 13 | 0 | 124 | 57 |
| Jake Gardiner | D | 3 | 30 | 33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 8 | 0 | 89 | 74 |
| Zach Hyman | C | 11 | 19 | 30 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 97 | 40 |
| Patrick Marleau | LW | 18 | 11 | 29 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 145 | 17 |
| Tyler Bozak | C | 8 | 19 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 103 | 15 |
| Connor Brown | RW | 12 | 9 | 21 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 80 | 23 |
| Ron Hainsey | D | 3 | 16 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 49 | 116 |
| Leo Komarov | C | 5 | 9 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 89 | 42 |
| Matt Martin | LW | 3 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 44 | 9 |
| Dominic Moore | C | 4 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 16 |
| Nikita Zaitsev | D | 4 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 41 | 105 |
| Connor Carrick | D | 3 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 42 |
| Roman Polak | D | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 54 |
| Kasperi Kapanen | RW | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 4 |
| Travis Dermott | D | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 17 |
| Team Total | 183 | 293 | 476 | 146 | 33 | 4 | 227 | 62 | 4 | 1817 | 796 |
Our Toronto Stacks
Line One
ZACH HYMAN $5.4K
AUSTON MATTHEWS $8.0K
WILLIAM NYLANDER
Line Two
PATRICK MARLEAU $5.3K
NAZEM KADRI $5.6K
MITCH MARNER $5.9K
Line Three
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK $6.5K
TYLER BOZAK $4.5K
CONNOR BROWN $3.7K
Power Play Stack
PATRICK MARLEAU
AUSTON MATTHEWS
CONNOR BROWN
WILLIAM NYLANDER
(D) JAKE GARDINER $4.7K
Power Play Two Stack
NAZEM KADRI
TYLER BOZAK
JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK
MITCH MARNER
(D) MORGAN RIELLY $4.5K
Notes
-The Edmonton Oilers are on home ice tonight against a Florida Panthers team that allowed a league second-worst 3.70 goals against per game in January — and Edmonton has the highest implied goal total of the night. Florida has actually won four of their past five games while Edmonton has lost four of their past fives games. Still, Edmonton is the biggest Vegas favorite on the night with the highest implied goal total. McDavid could be in (as always) for a big night. He has seven goals, four assists and 27 shots on goal over his past six games and is worth his $9.1K price tage.
Talbot will likely get the nod in net for the Oilers and his .902 save percentage and his 3.10 goals against average are the worst of his career. JONATHAN HUBERDEAU/ALEKSANDER BARKOV/KEITH YANDLE make a nice mini power play stack against Edmonton tonight.
-Stats in this article are courtesy of Corsica, ESPN, NaturalStatTrick and Hockey-Reference and are up to date as of Feb 11.
-As always, please double check all line combos, injuries, and starting goalies prior to puck drop.