We may have a small slate of games in Week 10, but an abnormally large amount of fantasy-relevant contests. In fact, many of the head-to-head matchups are more appealing for fantasy purposes than actual on-field gameday excitement.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 10 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: For weeks now, any game that had the Lions in it was one we’ve targeted heavily – that will not be the case this week. The Bears’ defense is still an opposing force, and with Matthew Stafford dealing with a back injury, I’m not expecting his best this week. The Bears’ offense blew the last shot I was willing to give them in a perfect matchup, and even with another soft defense on tap, I’m going to choose to expect nothing from them until further notice.
Targets: Bears Defense and David Montgomery
Fades: Lions offense and Bears passing game
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Last week, I wrote about the Chicago Bears having a favorable matchup against a terrible Eagles defense that would lead to points. It didn’t happen. Not enough, anyway. Granted, the second-half of Chicago’s game in Philadelphia was much better than the first, but it should lead to some pause before trusting the Bears without hesitation. Still, Detroit’s defense is, overall, even worse than Philadelphia’s, and Chicago is certainly in-play, again. I wouldn’t take a chance with Detroit’s offense, despite how well it has played, at times. The Bears rank in the top-ten for basically every important defensive statistic.
Targets: Bears defense, Mitchell Trubisky, and Allen Robinson
Fades: Detroit’s offense
Must-Owns: None
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: With how this season has gone, it seems all too obvious that the Ravens completely obliterated the Bengals this week. For some reason that feels funny to me, and I simply can’t buy in. Between the Bengals bye week, and the potential let down for the Ravens after last week’s statement victory, this feels like an ugly divisional game in the making.
Targets: Lamar Jackson
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Call me “crazy,” but I think the Cincinnati Bengals can put together some offense on Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore’s reputation as recently as last year has been ‘defense-first,’ but the team ranks in the middle of the league for yards and points allowed-per-game. Conversely, its offense has tallied the second-most yards-per-game. Most importantly, the Bengals are making a quarterback change and, while Andy Dalton has not been a problem – he was one of the top passers in the league a few weeks ago in terms of yards – Cincinnati should see a spark behind a rookie that is known for his accuracy. With that, quarterback Ryan Finley might make his way into one of my lineups. But, above all else, the Ravens’ running game should shred the Bengals’ defense, just like basically every other team has done.
Targets: Ryan Finley, Joe Mixon, and Lamar Jackson
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Mark Ingram II or Gus Edwards
Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Browns are favorites in this game for a reason, and that reason is because they will win despite the difference in records between these two teams. With Kareem Hunt returning, and being the bare minimum price, while supposedly having a real role in the offense, he is a prime salary saving target, but Nick Chubb is also a good tournament play against this Bills defense that is far more vulnerable against the run.
Targets: Devin Singletary, Browns Defense, and Nick Chubb
Fades: Both teams’ passing games
Must-Owns: Kareem Hunt – he is different than our usual must owns, but at this salary and with his upside, we cannot pass this up this week.
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I am not sure if we will see fireworks on Sunday, but I actually expect to see some offense from the Buffalo Bills and Cleveland Browns. Neither team has thrived in scoring points – they both rank lower than 20th in the league in points-per-game – but we are now halfway through a season in which the offenses need to show something. Buffalo has been far better, to date, but any movement from either team should force the other’s hands. And perhaps the biggest upside comes in the form of Cleveland’s running game. Indeed, the Bills are outstanding against the run, but Kareem Hunt returns from his suspension and should be a steal at his low price.
Targets: Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham, Jr., and Nick Chubb
Fades: Both defenses and the Bills’ offense
Must-Owns: Kareem Hunt
Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Assuming Patrick Mahomes returns this week, which seems to be the case, I will be all-in on the Chiefs’ offense. Matt Moore performed admirably, but the return of the league MVP will give this offense a huge boost as it will mark the first time they are at full strength since the start of Week 1, and we saw how good they looked then. The Titans defense isn’t usually a group we target, but with this Chiefs offense, the defense really doesn’t matter. The Titans offense has shown a greater willingness to throw lately, but their best shot this week is if Derrick Henry is able to take over the game, so expect to see the old Titans a bit more this week for as long as this game is close.
Targets: Tyreek Hill and Derrick Henry
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: All indications are that Patrick Mahomes will play for the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, which means that both the Chiefs and the Tennessee Titans get a boost offensively. Assuming Mahomes is healthy, he should be able to lead his team’s offense against a Titans defense that, while good, probably can’t completely shut down the Chiefs. Once that happens, Tennessee’s offense will get a chance to go against one of the weakest defenses in the league. I wouldn’t mind using players from this matchup, and I might even stack a few.
Targets: Actually, any-and-all offensive players from this game
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None, but I’d like to own a Titans player for the volume and matchup against the Chiefs’ defense
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Saints are a well-oiled machine, coming off their bye week, and should have no problem steam rolling this Falcons’ defense. If Matt Ryan is able to take the field, the Falcons’ offense may stand a chance to keep them in the game, which would set this game up to be high-scoring. If Ryan is out, the Saints’ defense probably helps keep this a lopsided game.
Targets: All offensive players – if Matt Ryan is out, that is a big downgrade to both teams
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: A few years ago, a matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints would essentially guarantee scores in the 30’s. We might still get it – especially with quarterback Matt Ryan expected to play for Atlanta – but the expectations need to be tempered a bit. The Falcons simply can’t get out of their own way and have been spiraling for weeks, while the Saints have grown stronger and gained a boost with the return of quarterback Drew Brees. But, with both teams coming off a bye, last week, we should see the best that each has to offer. That begins with offense, and it’s completely reasonable to pick-and-choose or stack from this game.
Targets: Both teams’ passing attacks – quarterbacks and pass-catchers, alike
Fades: Both defenses and both teams’ running backs
Must-Owns: Austin Hooper
New York Giants at New York Jets
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The battle of the fake New York teams doesn’t carry a ton of real-life intrigue, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t have it on our fantasy radar. The Giants’ defense continues to show they are among the very worst in the league, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the Jets’ offense has a good game. The Giants’ offense remains an enigma from week-to-week, but they have plenty of individuals good enough to produce good stat lines, and this matchup may be a good week to see one of their better games.
Targets: All healthy and relevant offensive players are in play for this matchup.
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: Saquon Barkley
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Even if one team disappointed from preseason expectations, it is still unsettling to see both New York teams entering Week 10 as complete disgraces. But, there is plenty of fantasy appeal between the Giants and Jets. Both defenses have been terrible, at times and, as poorly as the offenses have played, there is a chance that we see some fantasy gems littered throughout the game. Thankfully, both teams also feature a running back who is involved in the passing game, as well, making either an option with a higher upside in point-per-reception formats.
Targets: All offensive players, but I might end up using a defense from this game due to each team’s likelihood of turning the ball over
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Probably Saquon Barkley, but I might lean on Le’Veon Bell if he is healthy to play
Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This is about as uncomfortable as I’ve been with a game all season. On paper, this game sets up as the most obvious fantasy target of the week. While I see the merit behind that, this feels like a game where we could see the bad version of Jameis Winston who completely and utterly wrecks a football game. The Cardinals seem to find a way to play just about every game close, so a bad game from Winston could turn this whole game into a mess.
Targets: As of this moment, I have no problem rostering either defense or any offensive players because I truly believe anything could happen in this game.
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I don’t want to be too ‘obvious’ with it, but the Arizona Cardinals and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the perfect ‘game stack’ for this weekend. Neither team plays defense – at least, not enough to change the game – and both offenses have thrived, at times. Arizona’s problem continues to be its inability to get into the end zone, but gaining yards has not been an issue. I’m still expecting both offenses to move the ball at-will, which puts almost everyone in-play. With that being said, turnovers have been a problem for the Buccaneers, which makes Arizona’s defense a sneaky play.
Targets: Arizona’s defense and all offensive players, with a preference to Kyler Murray and a wide receiver in a mini-stack
Fades: Tampa Bay’s defense
Must-Owns: None
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It has been a while since Marlon Mack has really had a big game, but this has to be the week. Whether Jacoby Brissett is able to play or not, there is no reason for the Colts to do anything other than hand the ball off to Mack all game long and let their offensive line dominate the game. The injuries and suspensions for the Dolphins make a few players likely to see a lot of volume, but the matchup and pace of play likely won’t allow for anything spectacular on the Miami side of things.
Targets: DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki
Fades: Colts passing game
Must-Owns: Marlon Mack
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Last week, I questioned how Washington would score a point against Buffalo. This week, I’ll ask the same question about the Miami Dolphins in Indianapolis. The Colts are expected to have quarterback Jacoby Brissett available for Sunday’s game but, whether-or-not he plays, the plan is almost certainly to limit exposure to the quarterback position and simply stifle the Dolphins using defense. Marlon Mack remains an integral part of the Colts’ offense, and should have another big day thanks to the expected game flow.
Targets: Only the must-owns listed below
Fades: Everyone from Miami
Must-Owns: Marlon Mack and the Colts’ defense
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Aaron Rodgers put it nicely when he said last week’s game was a slice of humble pie, and many people will likely not expect a big turn around in a not ideal matchup. I will be buying into a bounce back game for no reason other than the fact that players like Aaron Rodgers typically don’t stay down very long, and having Devante Adams one week further into his return, I’m expecting them to get this offense going again. Christian McCaffrey continues to prove he is not human, and even though his price tag is reaching new heights, he will be hard not to play considering this is quiet possibly the best matchup he’s had all season. Between the Packers soft run defense, and the shootout potential of this game, it’s hard to see McCaffrey not having another huge game.
Targets: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Devante Adams and Christian McCaffrey
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None, but those four players above will make for a a very appealing game stack potentially.
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I am absolutely all-in on the Green Bay Packers for this season, but what we saw last week was a much needed ‘reset’ given how well they had played previously. The reality is that, in a league in which teams constantly disappointing – be-it bad coaching, poor quarterback play, or the desire for a high draft pick – the Carolina Panthers are quietly improving. This may not lead to an all-out explosion of points, but the Panthers have scored at least 30 in four-of-their-last-six games. Of course, the Packers have no problem scoring, as well, which sets up nicely for a competitive, back-and-forth game. I wouldn’t go too crazy with a stack from this game only because the prices will be high and the scores needed to return value will clearly be inflated, but there will be enough offense to make it worthwhile.
Targets: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, and Christian McCaffrey
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Los Angeles Rams at Pittsburgh Steelers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Rams are at a point where pretty much every game feels like a must win as they are currently on the playoff bubble. This matchup with the Steelers elite pass rush is not great for their struggling offensive line, and will likely result in a ton of quick passes in the middle of the field. Jaylen Samuels is in line for another start, and after his 13 catch game last week, he is mildly tempting even at his increased price tag. Ultimately, I don’t think he will find a spot on my lineups because this isn’t a great matchup, and the upside of this offense as a whole is very limited. I doubt he gets that many catches again this week, and any fewer catches than that and he will have a hard time returning value now.
Targets: Gerald Everett
Fades: Jaylen Samuels
Must-Owns: Cooper Kupp
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It almost feels as if the Los Angeles Rams have been forgotten during their bye week. And, if that’s not the case, perhaps the Pittsburgh Steelers’ three-game winning streak has put them back in the spotlight. Regardless, Los Angeles has value on both sides of the ball, ranking third in the league in yards-allowed-per-carry and ninth-best on offense in net-yards-per-pass-attempt. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, we don’t have the same insane savings with Jaylen Samuels that we did, last week, so he is no longer a value option if James Conner is inactive.
Targets: Todd Gurley, Rams’ defense, and Jared Goff
Fades: Mason Rudolph and Jaylen Samuels
Must-Owns: Cooper Kupp
Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This is a primetime matchup of two of the very best running backs in football, and they should be the stars of this game. Both offenses are at their best when their star backs are shouldering the load. Add in some injuries to key wide receivers, and it is even more likely that these teams choose to lean heavily on their running game.
Targets: Dalvin Cook, Stefon Diggs, Ezekiel Elliott and Michael Gallup
Fades: Kirk Cousins
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In terms of perception, we probably have an even split between the Sunday night and Monday night games. Therefore, there is not a clear ‘contrarian’ play to target. This leads me to simply lean on gameplan and past history. Starting with the latter, Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins has not been great in night games and, even if he plays better than his averages, I’m probably starting my roster construction around the Dallas Cowboys’ defense. Which also means Ezekiel Elliott comes into play – and sometimes, for the ‘contrarian’ route, I’ll either add or consider as an alternate the backup in someone like Tony Pollard. There will probably be a decent amount of points scored in this game, but I’m not expecting an all-out explosion.
Targets: Dallas’ defense and Tony Pollard
Fades: Everyone from Minnesota
Must-Owns: Ezekiel Elliott
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Week-in and week-out, we see the same thing over-and-over again: this Seahawks’ defense really isn’t very good, but this Russell Wilson guy is something else. I don’t see how this week is any different as the efficient 49ers’ offense takes aim at the Seahawks. They should be able to run the ball effectively, especially with their offensive line getting healthier, and they should be able to put up points consistently. That will leave the Seahawks hopes up to Wilson, and he will have his hands full against this 49ers defense, but it is hard to imagine he won’t be up to the task as he single-handedly keeps his team in this game.
Targets: Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida, Emmanuel Sanders and George Kittle
Fades: Chris Carson and Both Defenses
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Between the two night games, Monday is where I want to focus most of my attention for building a roster. Granted, the spread is large enough that people are likely going to trust the Seattle Seahawks playing within the number, but the real part of the game to “trust” is quarterback Russell Wilson. Even if the San Francisco 49ers come out firing and knock down the Seahawks, it would only enhance Wilson’s potential. Think back to when the Saints won in Seattle or the Buccaneers had a large lead against the Seahawks. It ended with massive numbers for Wilson. The same will be true on Monday. And, if the 49ers are subdued, the offense runs through Wilson anyway. I’ll be stacking Seahawks in my Primetime lineups.
Targets: Russell Wilson, Chris Carson, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, and Josh Gordon
Fades: Jimmy Garoppolo and Emmanuel Sanders
Must-Owns: George Kittle