Another decently-sized slate of games means that we have a healthy mix between lopsided matchups and closely-contested ones. What’s even better is that we’re finding entire ‘units’ of teams worth targeting. Usually confined to only defense, we are now seeing an entire passing attack or run game worth a look. As the sample size continues to grow, this should become more prevalent throughout the season.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 7 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Los Angeles Rams at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Rams are in a bit of a free fall right now and have some serious ground to make up in the highly competitive NFC West. Luckily their offense has one of the best matchups imaginable against this putrid Falcons defense. The Rams’ offense should be able to score at will which should put Matt Ryan in yet another spot for a big fantasy day.
Targets: Jared Goff, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks – seems like a good game for him to finally explode this season – Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley and Austin Hooper
Fades: Julio Jones – injured once again and will like be squaring up with newly acquired Jalen Ramsey
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I won’t go all-in on the game between the Los Angeles Rams and Atlanta Falcons being high-scoring, but I’m comfortable leaning in that direction. One of the reasons is that, when each team has had success individually, it has usually come from excellent offensive play. With recent struggles for each, it’s expected that they will go back to what has worked in the past. This also puts the passing game at the forefront. This is Atlanta’s strategy, anyway, as the team ranks first in passing attempts and passing touchdowns and second in passing yards.
Targets: Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Austin Hooper, Jared Goff, Cooper Kupp
Fades: Both defenses and running backs
Must-Owns: None
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Dolphins almost won last week after putting Ryan Fitzpatrick in the game, but blew what will probably be their best chance for a win all season by failing on a 2-point conversion. The Bills defense should feast on this team as the Bills cruise to victory.
Targets: Devin Singletary and Frank Gore
Fades: Dolphins offense
Must-Owns: Bills defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I always write how I don’t like to go with the ‘easy’ answer, but I don’t see how I will ever write about a game involving the Miami Dolphins and not peg the opposing defense as a ‘must-play.’ In this particular matchup, I can’t even recommend a single offensive player from the Dolphins. Maybe they’ll score, but it will be so limited that it isn’t worth the risk. The other side of the game is a bit trickier, as we never know which bad version of the Dolphins’ defense will show up to the game – and make no mistake, every version of the Dolphins’ defense is “bad.” Opposing running backs are always in-play because of the game flow that undoubtedly ends with the team leading and running out the clock.
Targets: Frank Gore
Fades: Everyone from Miami
Must-Owns: Bills defense
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game is likely to be pretty ugly which is almost always going to be our assumption when the Bengals are on the field. The Jaguars defense, even without Jalen Ramsey, still has more than enough talent to handle this Bengals offense. Leonard Fournette could have a field day this week against the Bengals league-worst run defense that is allowing an unfathomable 184.5 yards per game on the ground.
Targets: Jaguars Defense, D.J. Chark Jr., and Dede Westbrook
Fades: Bengals Offense
Must-Owns: Leonard Fournette
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Between the team’s recent play and the now-finalized news of Jalen Ramsey being traded, the Jacksonville Jaguars’ defense has not exactly been its strength. Against a terrible Bengals team, that might change, but I am not against taking a chance with a few offensive players from Cincinnati. For Jacksonville, I missed with quarterback Gardner Minshew, last week, but I have no hesitation using him again. The real play is Leonard Fournette, however, as the Bengals have allowed the most rushing yards, touchdowns, and yards-per-carry in the league.
Targets: Gardner Minshew, D.J. Chark, Andy Dalton, Joe Mixon
Fades: None, actually
Must-Owns: Leonard Fournette, although he might be the highest-owned player of the slate
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: These are two teams that under perfect conditions want to win games by running the ball and playing good defense. Given the matchup against one another and the nature of an important division game, this feels like a game where both teams can follow that game plan all the way to a closely contested slugfest.
Targets: Dalvin Cook and Kerryon Johnson
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Minnesota Vikings of the past few years have been stout defensively, and it looks like this season’s version is starting to show the same signs of dominance. This doesn’t hurt the Detroit Lions in a significant way, but we probably have to be careful to not go too overboard with offensive players. The same can also be said for Minnesota. Despite the Lions’ defense ranking fourth-worst in yards-per-game, the nature of this divisional matchup will probably lead to a tightly-contested game throughout. If the Lions’ offense isn’t working, the defense should be able to rise to the occasion.
Targets: Both defenses, but the Lions’ defense is probably more ‘contrarian’
Fades: Both offenses
Must-Owns: None
Oakland Raiders at Green Bay Packers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I think it’s safe to say the Raiders are overachieving right now, and while I’d normally stay away from a team in that category, I think this is a perfect opportunity for them to surprise the world again. The Packers don’t feel like a team that should be 6-1, and seem ripe to be upset. Oakland is coming off a bye week while the Packers are beat up and coming off an emotional Monday night victory.
Targets: Josh Jacobs and Darren Waller
Fades: Packers Offense – although value may open throughout the week depending on their injury news
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: A few years ago, when Derek Carr appeared to be emerging as a quarterback, a game featuring both him and Aaron Rodgers would have been grounds for creating a fantasy lineup from only the Oakland Raiders and Green Bay Packers. Then, Carr became one of the more unreliable quarterbacks in the league, and we had to look elsewhere. When the two meet on Sunday, we can, once again, go back to offense and the passing game. Perhaps this is the matchup we always wanted to see, but didn’t know. Green Bay ranks eighth in points-allowed-per-game, but 21st in yards-allowed-per-game. Oakland’s defense ranks sixth in yards-per-rush, but 26th in net-yards-per-pass-attempt.
Targets: Both team’s passing games and wide receivers
Fades: Aaron Jones and Josh Jacobs
Must-Owns: Darren Waller
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Games with the Texans are likely to draw a lot of attention in the fantasy community because of their dynamic offense and shaky defense. I’ll be backing off this week due to the matchup. The Colts’ defense is fresh off a bye week following a dominant performance in Kansas City. In this critical division game, I don’t see the offenses breaking out.
Targets: None
Fades: All offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Both the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans deserve credit for knocking off the Kansas City Chiefs over the past two weeks, but we do have to take away some ‘style points.’ The Chiefs bleed yards and point, and the fact that Houston and Indianapolis combined for ‘only’ 50 points in the two games is actually a bit concerning. Really, what we have seen from Indianapolis is the ability to win with offense, but strive when its defense plays well. Houston can make the same claim. The Texans are 3-1 when allowing no more than 24 points, and 1-1 when allowing at least 30. In terms of matchups, the running backs are collectively in a good position on Sunday.
Targets: Marlon Mack, Carlos Hyde, and both defenses
Fades: None, but I won’t too many offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Giants are likely to look like an entirely new team this week with the return on many of their top players, and after some extra prep time this week, this should be a good showing for them. The Cardinals’ offense had their best game of the season last week, and with another good matchup, and pass-heavy game script in line, the Cardinals could string together strong offensive weeks.
Targets: Kyler Murray, David Johnson (if he’s healthy, Chase Edmonds if he’s not), Larry Fitzgerald, Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley, Golden Tate and Evan Engram
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None – although this game has a strong possibility of being one of my favorites of the week
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As much as I don’t like the future of the Arizona Cardinals, I have had no issues buying into their offense on a semi-regular basis. Such is the case, again, on Sunday. Arizona has now won back-to-back games and, even if the Cardinals lose – obviously, a possibility given the fact that they are underdogs – they should be able to find success against the New York Giants’ defense – which has improved to be only the fifth-worst in yards-per-game. But, the same semi-regular basis that points me to the Cardinals’ offense also points me against their defense. Arizona has allowed the third-most yards-per-game in the league. Saquon Barkley should also be back, and he is a ‘must-start’ for me.
Targets: All offensive players from both teams
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Saquon Barkley
San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: After last week, two things are quite clear: the Redskins are still very bad, and the 49ers’ defense is for real. This game should feature a ton of success running the ball for the 49ers and basically no offense for the Redskins.
Targets: Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida
Fades: Jimmy Garoppolo and the Redskins Offense
Must-Owns: 49ers defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Much like the game between the Dolphins and Bills, the matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Washington Redskins is both lopsided and tilted toward defense. Washington’s defense isn’t good, by any stretch, but the 49ers have had three games with an absolutely explosive offense and two with only a decent output. I wouldn’t shy away from running back Matt Breida, if he plays – and, if he doesn’t, Raheem Morris might slide into ‘must-play’ territory for his price – but that’s the extent of the exposure I want to offense from this game.
Targets: Matt Breida or Raheem Morris – based on Breida’s health – and San Francisco’s defense
Fades: Everyone else on both offense
Must-Owns: Raheem Morris, if Breida is inactive
Los Angeles Chargers at Tennessee Titans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This is an interesting game as it features two teams that must feel like they are wildly underachieving. Both teams are quickly losing hopes of making the playoffs, and need to turn things around now. Unfortunately, with the Chargers’ offensive line continuing to struggle, and the Titans changing to Ryan Tannehill at quarterback, it’s hard to see the desperation of these teams leading to fantasy production.
Targets: Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry and Derrick Henry
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: How can we expect any offense, whatsoever, from the Los Angeles Chargers and Tennessee Titans? Whatever you think about quarterback Marcus Mariota, I can’t imagine the feelings are that much more positive for Ryan Tannehill. Really, the Titans’ overall gameplan and approach is arguably the bigger problem, and not the person throwing the passes. Regardless, I find it hard to believe that Tannehill is going to ignite the offense in any meaningful way. Can the Titans still win the game? Of course, but it would have to be through solid defense. With that, I’m probably using one of the defenses from this game in my lineup.
Targets: Both defenses
Fades: All offense
Must-Owns: It’s probably a necessity to own one defense from this game
New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I had a feeling things were going to be tough for the Saints last week, and I have a very similar feeling this week. The Bears are coming off a brutal loss to the Raiders in London and have had their bye week to refocus and prepare for this game. Teddy Bridgewater has done a great job of keeping the Saints afloat, but this week figures to be another difficult low-scoring game.
Targets: Both defenses
Fades: Both offenses
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The game between the Chicago Bears and New Orleans Saints was one of the more difficult for me to project, and it’s because of the amount of unknowns – from the status of quarterback Mitchell Trubisky to the likelihood of the Saints continuing their winning ways without Drew Brees. But, for fantasy purposes, we actually have some players on which their teams should lean. I continue to target running back Alvin Kamara thanks to his integral role in the offense, but Michael Thomas is also receiving extreme volume. He had at least nine targets in each of the last three games. Chicago’s Allen Robinson is also steadily seeing looks, with no fewer than seven in any game, this year.
Targets: Teddy Bridgewater, Alvin Kamara, Allen Robinson
Fades: Both defenses, as I expect enough offense to render the defensive picks
Must-Owns: Michael Thomas
Baltimore Ravens at Seattle Seahawks
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Seemingly every year the Seahawks roster gets weaker, but every year Russell Wilson keeps them relevant. If it weren’t for Patrick Mahomes, I think you could make an easy argument that Wilson is the best quarterback in the league. This game features two teams that love to run the ball, and have quarterbacks who are extremely capable runners as well. Expect to see a game that features some of the lowest pass attempts all season long, but still some offense worth paying attention to.
Targets: Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram, Mark Andrews, Russell Wilson, Chris Carson, Luke Wilson
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I am constantly writing about how another team is going to try to push the Seattle Seahawks to the point where Russell Wilson and Seattle’s offense is forced to perform. Which it does. But, we might actually have the rare situation where the Seahawks are going to be the ones setting the tone and asking another team to keep pace. This puts players from both offenses in the spotlight, and is one of the rare times I may use Lamar Jackson in my lineup. He must produce if the Baltimore Ravens have any chance of staying in the game.
Targets: Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, and Mark Ingram
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None, but Jackson will probably be the quarterback of one of my lineups
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: These loser of this game is likely to fall into a tie for second place with the Giants – assuming they beat the Cardinals. That realization has to motivate these two teams that both had higher expectations coming into this season. As always, I have to like any team facing off with the Eagles’ secondary. Just about every week this matchup gets exploited and I’m not moving away from it now.
Targets: Carson Wentz, Zach Ertz, Dak Prescott, and Tavon Austin – depending on status of other receivers
Fades: Both teams running backs
Must-Owns: Michael Gallup
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Sunday Night Football looks like it won’t disappoint, yet again – last week notwithstanding. The Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys will meet after previously being called into question on the heels of losing, last week – and, for the Cowboys, after losing in each of the last three weeks. We always point out how teams tend to lean on their stars when searching for answers, and Sunday night is loaded with said “stars.” In terms of matchups, we have seen quarterbacks torch the Eagles’ secondary, so I will start my Primetime lineup construction with Dak Prescott and build from there.
Targets: Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott
Fades: Both defenses, unless you go full ‘contrarian’ and take offense from Monday night’s game
Must-Owns: Michal Gallup
New England Patriots at New York Jets
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game does not have all that much appeal to me. The Jets are a much better team with Sam Darnold than with Luke Falk, so expect a more competitive game than their last outing with the Patriots. It may seem crazy to say this considering the Patriots have scored 30 or more points in all but one game this season, but the Patriots’ offense has not been all that dominant. So many of their points have come from their defense scoring or giving them great field position that is has skewed their scoring numbers. Look for a fairly low-scoring affair here.
Targets: Julian Edelman, James White and Le’Veon Bell
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’ve been arguing for weeks that we have not seen the ‘real’ New York Jets play football since Opening Day. Now, we can safely say that “we saw the ‘real’ New York Jets play football.” And, they were good! At least, not terrible. The problem they face on Monday night is that they are going against an elite defense that feasts on young quarterbacks. Still, the ‘contrarian’ play of the night-only slate is to go heavy with the Jets, so I will be doing exactly that in at least one of my lineups.
Targets: Sam Darnold, Robby Anderson, Tom Brady, and Julian Edelman
Fades: It’s wholly based on strategy – the Jets’ offense is the easy fade if you’re sold on a big Patriots’ win, but the ‘contrarian’ route is fading the Patriots’ offense
Must-Owns: If leaning on the Patriots to win big, then their defense is a must-own