We go back to a large slate in Week 8, as we only have two teams on a bye and the London game will be part of the main contest. As usual, there are quite a few matchups that appear to be lopsided, as well as those the set up for great battles. Fourteen games over two days usually does not disappoint.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 8 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It’s hard to imagine a world in which Russell Wilson and the Seahawks do not shred this Falcons defense apart. The only question is whether it’s a total blowout or mildly competitive, and that will depend on Matt Ryan’s ability to play. His presence completely changes the game compared to the outlook of Matt Schaub is under center.
Targets: Russell Wilson, Chris Carson, Rashaad Penny, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley – both only with Matt Ryan – Austin Hooper and Justin Hardy – with Matt Schaub especially
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Seahawks Defense – if Matt Schaub starts
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As of this writing, it is unclear of whether-or-not quarterback Matt Ryan will play on Sunday. Originally, I was confident that he’d miss the game. Now, I’m not so sure. Overall, it may not matter. If Ryan doesn’t play, then we can actually expect backup Matt Schaub to lean on his superstar wide receiver, Julio Jones – especially with Mohamed Sanu no longer on the team. Really, the ideal matchup is on the other side of the game, anyway, where quarterback Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks’ offense have the clear advantage over Atlanta’s defense. The Falcons have allowed the third-most net-yards-per-pass-attempt, and the Seahawks – who rank fourth offensively in the same category – are looking to rebound from their lowest point total of the year.
Targets: Russell Wilson, all pass-catchers from Seattle, and Julio Jones
Fades: Only defenses, as I can even understand the use of running backs in this game
Must-Owns: Wilson might end up being a ‘must-own’ by the time lineups are submitted
Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While targeting the Eagles secondary is one of my favorite things in the world to do, I will finally back off that train this week. The Bills suck the fun out of football – excluding the Miami game – because the Dolphins don’t count – the Bills have only played in one game that has exceeded 40 total points. I’ll be staying far away from this game.
Targets: Bills Defense
Fades: All offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Buffalo Bills don’t bother hiding the fact that they want to win every game with suffocating defense. So far, it has worked all-but-once. We have to give credit to the Bills and, by extension, lower our expectations for the Philadelphia Eagles’ offense on Sunday. But, if we’re looking for decent potential at a diminished price, it might be worth targeting both sides of this game. The Eagles have been horrible on defense for a large portion of the year – especially lately – and the Bills’ offense is in a good position. I would also look at Carson Wentz and Miles Sanders as ‘value’ plays in their respective positions. Sanders has been inconsistent with volume, but he has shown life in aerial attack.
Targets: Josh Allen, John Brown, Carson Wentz, and Miles Sanders
Fades: Both defenses actually, as this game might have more scoring than people expect
Must-Owns: Possibly Zach Ertz
Los Angeles Chargers at Chicago Bears
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: These are two of the most disappointing teams in the league in terms of their expectations coming into the season, and it is very difficult to trust either of these offenses right now. Both defenses should be able to to put pressure on the opposing quarterbacks constantly which makes my only targets in this game the players who figure to benefit from dump offs and short passes.
Targets: Austin Ekeler, Hunter Henry and Tarik Cohen
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Despite the late-game touchdown from the Los Angeles Chargers – and the surge that should have gotten them into the end zone again – the offense has failed to show up to a game, yet again. Conversely, the Chicago Bears approached last week as if defense were the key to victory, but then had their hands forced into an offensive gameplan. Personally, these were two of my favorite picks of last week – offense from Chicago and defense in the game featuring the Chargers. Now that the two meet, however, it is likely that we get back to their expected strengths. Los Angeles would like to move the ball well. Chicago would like to play stout defense. This likely leads to fantasy mediocrity from all parties. The only exceptions might be Allen Robinson and Keenan Allen.
Targets: Either defense, Allen Robinson, and Keenan Allen
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns: None
New York Giants at Detroit Lions
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Despite the Giants’ disappointment last week, they find themselves in one of my favorite matchups of the week once again. Both of these defenses are struggling immensely in every way imaginable. Thanks to some injuries to both offenses, there should be reliable volume, and solid value on both teams. And this is a great Golden Tate revenge game as well.
Targets: Any relevant offensive player on either team
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Golden Tate
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The New York Giants have been a massive disappointment after the first few starts of quarterback Daniel Jones’ career – and the expectations that quickly followed – but they actually have an extremely positive matchup against a Detroit Lions defense allowing the second-most yards-per-game. New York’s isn’t much better, allowing the fifth-most yards-per-game. I will almost definitely own someone from this matchup.
Targets: Matthew Stafford, Daniel Jones, and any pass-catchers from either team – Golden Tate has a ‘revenge game’ against the Lions
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Saquon Barkley
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Tennessee Titans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The presence of Ryan Tannehill under center actually brought a little life to the Titans passing game. Given their matchup against a strong run defense and a weak pass defense, playing the Titans passing game may be truly logical for the first time all season. Coming off a bye week, I like the odds of the Buccaneers offense putting together a good game.
Targets: Jameis Winston, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Ryan Tannehill, Corey Davis, A.J. Brown, and Adam Humphries (revenge game!)
Fades: Defenses and Running Backs
Must-Owns: None – but this game has sneaky shootout potential and may be a good game stack opportunity.
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Tennessee Titans finally showed some signs of offensive line in their last game, but I’m not so sure we can thank the quarterback change to Ryan Tannehill as the reason for the spark. The reality is that the Titans took a few more chances and pushed the envelope more than they have in the past. If this continues – and it’s possible against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers – then we might actually have some offense on Sunday. The problem is that Tennessee still prefers to run, and the Buccaneers are fantastic against opposing running backs. Really, the new-look Titans – if we can call them that – would be best suited to push Tampa Bay to move the ball. This puts Jameis Winston on my radar and, although he had been eerily quiet, I also don’t mind using Mike Evans. Clearly, the Buccaneers made an effort to get the ball in his hands in the last game they played, and that shouldn’t stop on Sunday.
Targets: Jameis Winston and Mike Evans
Fades: Derrick Henry – he could break through, but I’d rather avoid
Must-Owns: None
Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Colts continue to impress, and have a great opportunity to put together another win this week. They will likely get a lot more out of Marlon Mack this week, as the matchup with the Broncos favors the run game significantly. The Broncos’ offense is bad, but with them likely playing from behind, and with Emmanuel Sanders out of town, there is some potential value here.
Targets: Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant
Fades: Colts Passing Game
Must-Owns: Marlon Mack
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It’s hard to look worse than Denver Broncos quarterback Joe Flacco looked on Thursday Night Football of last week, but the team simply has no other option at the position. Their true backup is injured and can’t return until Week 11, at the earliest. The Broncos will have to keep rolling out Flacco and make the best of it. The good news for Denver is that they have been relatively successful when getting both of their running backs involved, especially as receivers. And, with Emmanual Sanders now with the 49ers, there are fewer mouths to feed in the Broncos’ passing game. For the Indianapolis Colts, I am not scared away from using Marlon Mack, yet again, even though Denver’s defense has allowed the fourth-fewest yards-per-game.
Targets: All running backs
Fades: All pass-catchers
Must-Owns: None
Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Rams – in London
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The poor fans in London likely won’t be seeing much of a game this week. The Bengals simply don’t stand a chance pretty much any week because of their complete inability to play defense or protect their quarterback. This game should be fairly one-sided.
Targets: Tyler Boyd, Auden Tate, Rams Defense, Todd Gurley, Darrell Henderson Jr. and Cooper Kupp
Fades: Andy Dalton and Joe Mixon
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There is arguably no easier team to look past than the Cincinnati Bengals, but this is probably when it is best to buy into them. After all, the best storyline we have for the game between Cincinnati and the Los Angeles Rams – besides the change of scenery to London – is that Bengals head coach Zac Taylor was most recently with the Rams’ organization. This helped when Cincinnati played against Seattle on Opening Day – the division familiarity certainly played a role – and the Bengals exploded via quarterback Andy Dalton’s passing attack. It’s not crazy to think he could do it again. More importantly, Taylor worked with the wide receivers and quarterbacks in Los Angeles over the last two years, so I wouldn’t buy into either on Sunday.
Targets: Andy Dalton and Bengals’ pass-catchers
Fades: Jared Goff and Rams’ pass-catchers
Must-Owns: None
Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: People are riding high on the Cardinals right now, but their current win streak is a bit of a grass considering their wins have come against teams with a combined three wins. This Saints team is the real deal, and whether Brees is in the lineup or not this week, I’m expecting a bit of a reality check for the Cardinals this week.
Targets: Larry Fitzgerald, Saints Defense, Alvin Kamara (if healthy), Latavius Murray (if Kamara is not healthy) and Michael Thomas
Fades: Kyler Murray and Chase Edmonds
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The clear storyline for the game between the New Orleans Saints and Arizona Cardinals is the potential return of quarterback Drew Brees. As of this writing, it is not confirmed that he will play. Whether or not he does, the Saints should have no trouble moving the football against Arizona. But, the same is true for the Cardinals. The Saints’ defense is far from the pushover that it used to be, the Arizona plays an unconventional style that is difficult to completely stop. Even if the Cardinals are slowed, they will produce.
Targets: All offensive players
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: I will almost certainly own Kyler Murray or Larry Fitzgerald somewhere
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: These are two teams that people aren’t normally quick to love, but this game may have sneaky potential. The Jets are due for a respectable bounce back game after being absolutely dismantled last week, and the Jaguars’ offense is so concentrated that they contain viable fantasy options each week, especially with a fairly positive matchup.
Targets: Sam Darnold, Le’Veon Bell, Robby Anderson, Leonard Fournette, DJ Chark Jr. and Dede Westbrook
Fades: Jaguars Defense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I have been a big supporter of Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Gardner Minshew over the past few weeks, but his pace has slowed. This lowers the ceiling for him and his offense. Really, the value lies on the other side of the game, where New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold will be coming off one of the worst performances in recent memory. The key to note is that he went against a ferocious Patriots defense, last week, and has no such task on Sunday. The Jaguars used to be known for their defensive prowess, but they now rank 19th in yards-allowed-per-game.
Targets: Sam Darnold
Fades: Jaguars defense
Must-Owns: Le’Veon Bell
Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Whenever I come to a 49ers game, my decision is fairly easy: ignore the game. I’m not going to try to figure out their running back carousel, and the passing game hasn’t shown anything all season. On the other hand, their defense has been stifling to say the least, and besides maybe playing Christian McCaffrey in some lineups, they are not worth targeting players against them.
Targets: None
Fades: All offensive players (except maybe McCaffrey or a 49ers Running Back if you’re feeling courageous)
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Carolina Panthers and San Francisco 49ers might be playing the best game of the weekend. Unfortunately, there is a chance that it becomes one of the most unpredictable games of the weekend, as well. Both teams have thrived defensively over the last few weeks, and it probably forces us to stay away from too many offensive players. But, each team has its playmakers – the Panthers have one of the best in Christian McCaffrey – and I wouldn’t stay away from the game completely. If anything, we could possibly find lower ownership on some key players.
Targets: Christian McCaffrey and maybe the Panthers’ defense
Fades: Everyone else on offense
Must-Owns: None
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This is an easy game for me to ignore this week. The Browns are coming off a bye week, but their offense has largely been a mess, and a matchup with the Patriots is bad news for a poorly coached, turnover prone team. The Patriots offense is efficient but not dynamic at this point and is fairly easy to fade right now especially against this Browns defense that should put pressure on Tom Brady and is finally getting healthy in the secondary.
Targets: Both Defenses
Fades: All offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: How can we look at the New England Patriots’ defense and expect anything different against the Cleveland Browns than what we just saw against the Jets? We can’t. The Patriots are playing at an elite level, and the defense is arguably the best it has had in a decade. Still, the Browns have had two weeks to prepare for this game and likely won’t be as dominated as the Jets were. I won’t buy into Cleveland too heavily, but I might take a chance with a single skill position player.
Targets: Odell Beckham, Jr., Nick Chubb, and the Patriots’ defense
Fades: Tom Brady, Patriots running backs
Must-Owns: None
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game almost has to be a shootout. The Texans are in a must win situation after losing to the Colts last week, and the Raiders secondary is one of the worst in the league, especially after trading away a starting cornerback. The Raiders figure to be playing from behind, so they should be passing a lot, and they also have a favorable matchup there.
Targets: Derek Carr, Raiders Wide Receivers (but it will be hard to settle on any one of them), Darren Waller, Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins
Fades: Defenses and Running Backs
Must-Owns: Kenny Stills and/or Keke Coutee
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I went back-and-forth on the game between the Houston Texans and Oakland Raiders in my against-the-spread picks, but the one area on which I landed is that we should see some offense from these two teams on Sunday. I don’t want to go too overboard with Houston’s players because it is dangerous to look at what Aaron Rodgers did to Oakland and plug in Deshaun Watson for the same type of day. Still, he should thrive. The Raiders’ offense has been steadily consistent – scoring at least 24 points in each of the last three games after combining for 24 in the prior two – and both sides have contributed. The Raiders now rank in the top-ten for yards-per-carry and net-yards-per-pass-attempt.
Targets: Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins, Derek Carr, Darren Waller, and I can justify almost anyone as a ‘target’
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None, but it is probably worth owning someone from this game
Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Assuming Patrick Mahomes is out, we were officially robbed of a great game. With Matt Moore starting, the Packers defense will likely sell out to stop the run and they should be able to significantly slow down this normally dynamic offense. The Chiefs defense is huge liability against the run, and given how I see this game playing out, the Packers will likely attack them on the ground constantly.
Targets: Aaron Rodgers, Jamaal Williams and Tyreek Hill
Fades: Matt Moore and Chiefs Running Backs
Must-Owns: Aaron Jones
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I still won’t commit to Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes shocking the world and playing on Sunday night, but I also can’t build my lineup around that expectation. If the news breaks that he will start, then I might add an additional pass-catcher for the Chiefs. But that’s probably as far as I will go. The real play has to come from the Green Bay Packers, as Kansas City’s defense has been a sieve, all year. In addition to Aaron Rodgers – coming off one of the best quarterback performances in recent memory – Aaron Jones is a near must-own. But, as always, I look for the ‘contrarian’ play on Primetime slates, and going with the Packers’ defense on Sunday night and picking offensive players from Monday might be the best way to differentiate your lineup from the pack.
Targets: Aaron Rodgers, Tyreek Hill, and possibly the Packers’ defense
Fades: Mostly the Chiefs’ offense
Must-Owns: Aaron Jones
Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Ryan Fitzpatrick led an admirable charge last week against the Bills, but they once again came up short. The Dolphins now have to go to Pittsburgh on Monday night to play a rested Steelers team. This game should be fairly easily controlled by the Steelers throughout as they look to turn their season around.
Targets: DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, Steelers Defense, Juju Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson
Fades: Ryan Fitzpatrick
Must-Owns: James Conner
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We are going to end up with way too many Primetime games that feature the Pittsburgh Steelers than we should, but they can make it a little more bearable by actually sticking to a fantasy-relevant gameplan. A few weeks ago, the Steelers played a Monday Night Football game in which, despite the ideal setup for running back James Conner, Pittsburgh opted to use Jaylen Samuels far more than it should have. He was essentially the ‘Wildcat’ quarterback. It’s possible the Steelers go back to this approach, and we might have to have some exposure to Samuels. Really, this should be Conner’s game with Mason Rudolph showing he can play quarterback at a high level against a pathetic opponent. And I can’t justify owning anyone from said “pathetic opponent,” as the Miami Dolphins played well in their last game, but it was also a division matchup against a familiar rival.
Targets: Essentially all pass-catchers from both teams and the Steelers’ defense
Fades: Everyone from Miami, unless you are going for the ‘contrarian’ lineup
Must-Owns: James Conner