An early London game and four teams on bye weeks leads us to a small slate in Week 9. We do have some excellent matchups and lopsided games, and we look to them as the foundations of our lineups.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 9 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Washington Redskins at Buffalo Bills
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This will be the first start of Dwayne Haskins’ career, and if the past is any indication of the future, it may be ugly. The Bills’ defense has been good against inferior opponents this year, and after a bad loss last week, they should be in line for a bounce back performance at home. Terry McLaurin has moderate intrigue due to his college connection with Haskins, but that’s about all this offense has going for it.
Targets: Terry McLaurin and John Brown
Fades: Dwayne Haskins
Must-Owns: Bills Defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’ve reserved the same writeup every time the Dolphins take the field, but the Washington Redskins might be the next on the list of ‘complete disasters not worth targeting for fantasy lineups.’ That said, we get an even bigger bonus with the Buffalo Bills in-play. This makes Buffalo’s defense arguably the top play of the weekend – especially coming off a loss in which it was thoroughly embarrassed.
Targets: Frank Gore
Fades: Everyone from Washington
Must-Owns: Bills defense
Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: There are basically two ideas that we preach almost every week, and they are to play wide receivers against the Eagles and running backs against the Chiefs. This Chiefs’ defense has been absolutely shredded constantly by running backs, and now they have to contend with Dalvin Cook who has been elite all year and seeing consistent work as a receiver as well. Matt Moore showed me more than I expected last week, and with Andy Reid, I have faith that the offense can still succeed. I’m not sure the big dogs are worth owning at the price tags, but I think the offense does enough to steal this one from the Vikings, so some ownership may be warranted.
Targets: Sammy Watkins
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Dalvin Cook
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In my picks article, whenever a quarterback is injured and the status has not yet been released for the next game, I write that we can work around it. For fantasy football, however, this is simply not the case. If Patrick Mahomes plays, it changes a lot for the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense. And, actually, it changes a lot for the defense, too. Kansas City generally bleeds points because its offense can – and basically does – score at will. Therefore, if Mahomes plays, I’m actually giving a boost to the Minnesota Vikings’ offense as well as that of Kansas City’s. Otherwise, I might consider using Matt Moore in Mahomes’ place for his low price tag and the trust I have in head coach Andy Reid to get the most out of him – after all, Moore led his team to 24 points against the Packers in a Primetime game. The one player who will be almost impossible to avoid is Dalvin Cook, as he has an ideal matchup against a Kansas City defense allowing the third-most yards-per-rush. I might downgrade him a bit if Mahomes plays, though, as it would force Minnesota to throw more than it would like.
Targets: Matt Moore or Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Kirk Cousins, Stefon Diggs
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Dalvin Cook
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Jets’ offense put forth another disappointing effort last week, but a matchup with the Dolphins – who will be without their last remaining real defensive player in Xavien Howard – has to do something for this offense. The added boost is that head coach Adam Gase is facing off with his former team, so we has added motivation this week to make his offense function. The Dolphins could find themselves playing from behind, and with a weak Jets pass rush, Ryan Fitzpatrick may be able to make some plays against his former team.
Targets: Sam Darnold, Le’Veon Bell, Demaryious Thomas, Preston Williams and DeVante Parker
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: Robby Anderson
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: We keep seeing undeniable examples that the Miami Dolphins have no interest in winning games. Which means that all opponents have a clear edge in basically every element of the game. Sunday’s matchup with the New York Jets is no different. The only storylines of note center around possible ‘revenge’ for quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick – who has played well, of late – and head coach Adam Gase. Fitzpatrick’s upside is severely limited, however, and I can’t imagine using him over other options in my fantasy lineup.
Targets: All Jets players
Fades: All Dolphins players
Must-Owns: Le’Veon Bell
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Bears are likely getting close to really considering benching Mitch Trubisky, but if there is one thing that can cure a struggling offense, it’s a matchup with the Eagles – just ask Kirk Cousins. It may be to my own demise, but I’ll have my fair share of Bears offensive players this week. Jordan Howard gets a crack at revenge against his old team this week, and it actually sets up quite nicely for him. The Bears have had some struggles this year against power running teams, and the Eagles discovered last week that they can play that game fairly well. I’d expect that to be a big part of their game plan this week.
Targets: Mitch Trubisky, Taylor Gabriel, Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert
Fades: Eagles Defense
Must-Owns: Allen Robinson and Jordan Howard
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Philadelphia Eagles not only stabilized their season with last week’s win, but opened eyes in the process. The reality is that the Eagles should have played better earlier in the season, and I find it surprising how many people are climbing back on the bandwagon. More importantly, the matchup against the Chicago Bears is quite unforgiving. Conversely – and certainly playing a role into the perception heading into the game – the formerly loaded bandwagon of the Bears has emptied feverishly but, again, this is probably the wrong time for it. Philadelphia’s defense has been dreadful, and it has yielded big fantasy games for opponents. Not only will I be using Chicago’s players, but I will probably stack the Bears.
Targets: Bears offense and maybe Alshon Jeffrey and Jordan Howard for the ‘revenge game’ element
Fades: Everyone else from Philadelphia
Must-Owns: None
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game features one of the lower over-unders, and it is not that hard to see why. The Steelers offense is clearly still mediocre despite some big plays last week – those plays were against the Dolphins after all. They also may be without James Conner which would hurt their entire offense. The Colts offense has had a couple good games this year, but they are largely matchup and game flow dependent as they prefer to play a grinding, slow paced game focused on Marlon Mack.
Targets: Marlon Mack
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I am all about finding spreads that don’t make sense but, when I do, it doesn’t mean I’m willing to use either team in my fantasy lineups – at least, not without a clear gameplan. The Pittsburgh Steelers do not have a gameplan. At least, not one that I’m comfortable targeting. The fact that they beat the Dolphins means nothing, and more because it was as pathetic a “beating” as one could hand to Miami. I simply can’t trust that any matchup will be positive. But, this works in reverse, as well. The Indianapolis Colts were fortunate to escape last week with a win, but have not established themselves in any singular category.
Targets: Jaylen Samuels, Marlon Mack, and both defenses
Fades: Most other offensive players
Must-Owns: None, although Samuels will probably be so highly-owned that, if you want to flush him out, he probably has to be played at his low price
Tennessee Titans at Carolina Panthers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This is an interesting game because both teams are sort of in the mushy middle on both sides of the ball. With Ryan Tannehill, the Titans’ offense stands some chance to succeed, but they are still far from elite. The Panthers offense boasts the otherworldly Christian McCaffrey, but besides that doesn’t have a ton worth getting exciting about for fantasy purposes. Both defenses are also somewhere in the realm of solid, and all of this adds up to a game that simply doesn’t jump off the page for us.
Targets: Jonnu Smith (if Delanie Walker is out again) and Christian McCaffrey
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The offenses of the Carolina Panthers and Tennessee Titans have come alive at various stages of the last month or so, but both teams also have no problem leaning on defense to win games. When one team fails to push another, I tend to stay away from offense. Of course, there is star power in the form of Christian McCaffrey, but I won’t be loading my lineup with players from either team.
Targets: Christian McCaffrey and either defense
Fades: Everyone else
Must-Owns: None
Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game is another game that figures to be popular, and there is no way I would talk you out of it. The Lions have had four of their last five games go over 50 total points – with two games over 60 – and the only one that was under 50 had 45 points. Almost the exact same could be said for the Raiders, who have played five consecutive games with at least 45 points. Simply put, these two teams are playing high-scoring games, and a matchup with each other should help continue that trend.
Targets: All offensive players
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: At this point, no single player stands out, but this is a great game to load up on.
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m always hesitant to pick a high-scoring game just because two teams have shown the ability – or lack of ability on defense – to produce one, but it’s hard to imagine the Detroit Lions and Oakland Raiders not having some outstanding offensive performances on Sunday. The Raiders were torn apart by the Packers two weeks ago and, while they kept the Texans from serving a second-consecutive beating, they still allowed 27 points. Overall, Oakland has allowed the fifth-most points-per-game in the league. But, Detroit’s defense is no better. The Lions rank second-works in yards-per-game and have not allowed fewer than 23 points to an opponent since Week 2.
Targets: Honestly… everyone is in play
Fades: Both defenses, but I’d be shocked if anyone were looking at this game for defense
Must-Owns: Probably Darren Waller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This game has potential to be the highest-scoring one of the week, and I’ll be owning plenty of players from it. The Seahawks love to run the ball, but Russell Wilson is playing incredible football and will be able to tear this Buccaneers pass-defense apart, just as almost every team has done this year. The Buccaneers keep finding ways to lose, but that doesn’t stop their offense from producing huge fantasy games almost every week. The matchup this week points another successful game throwing the ball, and based on numerous factors, this should be a Chris Godwin week after Mike Evans stole the show last week.
Targets: Jameis Winston, Cameron Brate (if O.J. Howard is out), Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: Chris Godwin
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Whatever support the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had from the football-watching world is vanishing as the love for the Seattle Seahawks only browns. Is the latter justified? Absolutely, as quarterback Russell Wilson essentially never disappoints. But, he also puts his team in a position to allow opponents to score solely by virtue of his ability to press the issue on offense. Look at the Falcons from last week as a perfect example. Seattle led by 24 points at halftime in a game that was decided at that time. It let its foot off the metaphorical pedal, and Atlanta races back into the game with 20 points. Was it ever close? No. And that’s the point. The Seahawks just keep winning, but it allows other teams to score. Tampa Bay is absolutely viable on Sunday.
Targets: Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin
Fades: Running backs and defense
Must-Owns: No one in particular, but I will probably have at least one lineup with Wilson or Winston stacks with a pass-catcher
Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Broncos offense has been one we’ve targeted defenses against regularly, but now that they have some guy named Brandon Allen starting, that is more true than ever. The 27 year old is playing in his first NFL game, and that simply cannot go well. The Browns are a mess in their own right, but Nick Chubb has been very good this season – outside of the two fumbles last week in the rain – and this is his last week as the only running back as Kareem Hunt will be eligible to play in Week 10. Chubb should be see a ton of work given that upcoming change, and with this matchup and game flow, all signs point towards a big game for him.
Targets: None
Fades: Broncos Offense
Must-Owns: Browns Defense and Nick Chubb
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I have been incredibly critical of Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield, but the Denver Broncos are turning to a rookie who will likely be swallowed. The Browns’ defense is definitely in-play, but the reality is that Cleveland’s offense needs a game in which it delivers. I know Denver’s defense isn’t terrible, but it might be in such a bad position that it won’t matter.
Targets: Everyone from Cleveland
Fades: Everyone from Denver
Must-Owns: Browns defense
Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Chargers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Ever since Devante Adams has been out, I’ve been a fan of using both Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams. Without Adams, those two have been the focal point of the offense both as runners and receivers as well as the primary beneficiaries with finding the endzone. If Adams returns, that will reduce the volume for both guys, but primarily Williams. The Chargers finally got some luck last week, but they’ll be hard pressed to start up a winning streak. The interesting thing will be how their offense looks now that they’ve fired their offensive coordinator. Maybe a new play caller can find a way to get Melvin Gordon going against a beatable run defense as the Chargers look to play keep away from Aaron Rodgers.
Targets: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Melvin Gordon, and Hunter Henry
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It’s hard to not love what the Green Bay Packers are doing lately, as they haven’t only been winning games, but doing so by letting quarterback Aaron Rodgers take over the game. Everything is clicking for Green Bay, but I would pump the breaks before loading players from the Packers into a fantasy lineup. Can they still thrive? Of course. But, the Los Angeles Chargers are solid across-the-board on defense. The same is true for Green Bay’s defense, and it will likely cause me to look elsewhere for fantasy options.
Targets: Keenan Allen
Fades: None, but I probably won’t go heavy with this game
Must-Owns: None
New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Reading all of the headlines about this game, it seems as if everyone is convinced Lamar Jackson and his running ability will be too much for the Patriots to handle. This Ravens offense is clearly unique, but people seem to be forgetting just how good this Patriots defense is and just how smart Bill Belichick is. There is a reason that he basically never loses to a first or second year quarterback, and it is that they don’t have the experience to figure out what he is going to throw at them. Until something changes, I won’t be betting against the Patriots in this position. I think they win a competitive and fairly low-scoring game where the defense and quick passing game continues to lead the way.
Targets: Patriots Defense and Julian Edelman
Fades: Ravens Offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I keep writing that the game between the Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots might be the best of the weekend, but I am also expecting some sneaky offense. To date, New England’s defense has been utterly suffocating, but the offense has appeared to be lackluster, at times. The Patriots have a tendency to explode without prior warning and, against a team with a perceived great defense – the numbers don’t support this perception, as the Ravens rank at-or-below the average in most categories – we will likely see New England press the issue with offense. Baltimore will attempt to do the same and should be able to find success through its preferred method of allowing quarterback Lamar Jackson to run whenever he has the opportunity.
Targets: All offensive players, with a preference toward New England’s but, if targeting Monday Night Football as the higher-scoring game, then a defense from Sunday night is required.
Fades: Patriots running backs, as I expect them to lean on the passing game
Must-Owns: No one in particualr
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This NFC East clash features a rested Cowboys team that has proven they are more than capable of piling on points against poor defenses. The Giants may have added Leonard Williams to their defense, but that likely won’t be nearly enough to improve this group that has allowed 27 or more points in all but one game this season. This week will mark the first time that Daniel Jones has a completely full group on offense now that Sterling Shepard will make his return to the lineup. Coming off a good showing last week, I expect this Giants offense to put together another good game as they try to play catch up against this Cowboys team.
Targets: All offensive players
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Sunday Night Football game might be the best matchup of the week, but Monday Night Football has a great potential to be high-scoring. At least one of my lineups will be ‘contrarian’ in the sense that I’ll stack both teams from Monday. The New York Giants have allowed the fifth-most yards-per-game and at least 27 points to every opponent except Washington. The Dallas Cowboys’ offense is insanely better than that of Washington’s, and it would be stunning if the Giants completely stop them. Therein lies the value of the Giants, however, as the more they allow, the more they need to push the ball on offense.
Targets: Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley, Golden Tate, Evan Engram, Dak Prescott, and Amari Cooper
Fades: Possibly Ezekiel Elliott, to be more ‘contrarian’
Must-Owns: Daniel Jones if going ‘contrarian,’ or Dak Prescott if going with the chalk in the ‘contrarian’ game