There is always a fine line to be walked between a recent performance and a historical track record, but it is made even more important in Week 2 of any NFL season. It is at this point where we need to decipher if what we saw on Opening Day was the start of a new era for certain teams and their players or simply an outlier that will quickly be corrected. Our DFS targets for this week include a healthy mix of the two.
Based on our expected Week 2 DFS game flow analysis performed earlier, we can carry our thoughts into actual lineup positions. The long list of players that fit the requirements set forth by the projected flow of the game was cut dramatically by the requirements set forth by salaries.
Below are Sporfolio’s DFS Week 2 Plays:
Quarterback
Cam Newton – Many people are going to shy away from the Falcons and Panthers after seeing both of these offenses struggle last week. You’re going to hear all about the players in this game, but for Cam Newton, there is really not much explanation needed. His floor is tremendously high every single week because of how often he runs the ball. With the Falcons’ defense banged up, the matchup is nothing to worry about, and if this game turns into the high-scoring back-and-forth affair we are hoping for, Newton will be at the heart of a large majority of the offensive production between his running and passing.
Andrew Luck – Luck’s comeback game is being downplayed far too much for our liking. In his first football game in nearly two years, the man threw 53 passes – which is a lot for anybody, let alone someone testing out a surgically repaired throwing shoulder for the first real time. Indeed, many of those throws were shorter passes, but he completed 39 of them (73.5%) for 319 yards. It doesn’t matter what length the throws are, if he can be that efficient and produce that much, the 53 passes are worth banking on. He may not hit that number every week, but with their run game essentially non-existent, and their defense giving up points at an alarming rate, there is no reason to think he won’t average somewhere around 45 passes per game this season. With himself and the coaching staff seeing how positively he reacted to his first game back, it won’t come as a surprise if they start to let him air the ball out a bit further in the near future. If his recovery continues on track, it won’t be long before Luck is one of the hottest options at QB each week, so get ahead of the curve if you can.
Matthew Stafford – If one of the themes for Week 2 is the potential for a rebound, then it’s difficult to find a player with more ‘bounceback’ ability than Matthew Stafford. Stafford’s Opening Night disaster was not just uncharacteristically bad, but one of the worst games of his career. He did compile 286 passing yards and a touchdown in the debacle, and it is an indication that he will almost always produce, even if the overall outcome for the team is bad. And, with Stafford’s Lions entering Sunday as an underdog, he would be passing late for the spread to be correct. Otherwise, the Lions would rebound via a win, but it’s unlikely for that to happen without Stafford. The bottom line is that Stafford will be throwing.
Matt Ryan – Like Stafford, Matt Ryan absolutely needs a better showing than what we saw in his team’s Opening Night dud. Unlike Stafford, Ryan gets to return home and continue to force the ball to Julio Jones on nearly every play. The big statistical key for Ryan is that he failed to throw a touchdown pass in Week 1. He hasn’t gone back-to-back weeks without a touchdown pass since his rookie year. Which was a decade ago.