If there’s one thing we love when trying to assemble a fantasy lineup, it’s a clear motivation by a team to use a specific player. In Week 3, we have desperation on-hand for a number of teams trying to salvage their season. Which means we have players who will be asked to carry their team. We can ask the same for our fantasy teams.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 3 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take: The New Orleans Saints survived their battle with the Browns by the skin of their teeth, and quite frankly, they should have lost. The only positives that I’d take away from that game were that they won mainly because of strong defensively play and they got some timely offense in crunch time. The key note is you likely won’t see them struggle on offense like that two weeks in a row which puts them right back on our radar. My main target is Alvin Kamara – who largely disappointed last week based on his standards yet still saw his price tag increase for Sunday. Those two facts will likely keep more people from rostering him which will be a mistake. Just like we expected last week, Christian McCaffrey dominated the game against Atlanta as a recover, and this week Kamara is going to do the same thing. For the Falcons, their offense came through for us last week, and they are back in-play. The Saints’ defense was better last week, but they are still clearly vulnerable against deep passes which makes Matt Ryan intriguing once again. If Tevin Coleman is starting again, he will be in position to replicate last week’s performance, and a hopefully healthy Julio Jones should be in-line for a big bounce back game. Also keep an eye on rookie Calvin Ridley. Ridley flashed plenty of skill last week, and could easily take over the role of number two option in the passing. In a potential high-scoring affair where big plays are available, Ridley may be worth taking a gamble on at his cheap price.
Mario’s DFS Take: By name value, alone, the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons lead one to believe that we are about to see nothing but offense. Not so fast. Since the start of 2017 and including the postseason, Atlanta is averaging 21.6 points-per-game. New Orleans was just held to three points for three quarters at home against the Browns. Making matters worse, three-of-the-last-five meetings between the Saints and Falcons saw combined point totals of 37 or less. Still, the path to victory for either team runs through its offense, and we have to expect the gameplan to steer toward a high-flying, back-and-forth battle. I remain attached to using Julio Jones until he finally reaches the endzone, mainly because quarterback Matt Ryan continues to force passes in his direction. Of course, Alvin Kamara has proven to be a reliable fantasy gem, no matter the game situation, but I would also be happy to use Drew Brees on Sunday. Kamara already has 165 receiving yards and a touchdown, so Brees doesn’t entirely lose value if his running back is producing.