Despite the high number of ‘upsets’ in Week 3, we have not seen a drastic shift in team’s philosophies. The Saints still love high-scoring games while the Titans and Jaguars prefer defensive stalemates. The Patriots and Dolphins can get contributions from any angle while the Giants consistently lean on the same two players.This continuity plays well into our game flow analysis, as it strengthens the likelihood that we land on the right players if the matchups go according to plan.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 4 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take: Hopefully I wasn’t the only one reaping the benefits of Calvin Ridley’s outrageous performance last week, but either way, the rookie caught everyone’s attention and probably won’t be overlooked for the rest of the season. There are tons of stats being thrown around this week about his three-touchdown performance, and how Julio Jones has been struggling to find the end zone, and it has people making some crazy statements and decisions. This is the perfect week to jump back into Julio Jones who, despite his struggles with scoring touchdowns, is far and away the number one receiver on this offense and one of the best in the league. The stud receiver hasn’t performed up to his standards of late, but that typically doesn’t last long with a player of his caliber. The Bengals’ defense also quietly ranks in the bottom third of the league in passing yards allowed per game as well as rushing yards per game and points allowed per game. This Atlanta offense has been heating up, and it will not be surprising to see them continue their strong play at home this week, and have the offense funnel through an overlooked Julio Jones. Tyler Boyd has also become a fantasy sweetheart early in the season, and the return of AJ Green, after injuring himself before halftime of last week’s game, can work for and against Boyd. The simple fact is that the Atlanta defense is severely banged up, and the Bengals are going to need score plenty this week to keep up, so the entire Bengals passing game is in a pretty good position to succeed.
Mario’s DFS Take: Atlanta appears to be a function of its opponent, where it falls into a defensive battle against an Eagles team that did not want to push the envelope offensively, but also joins a slug-fest in consecutive weeks where scoring in bunches was necessary to win. Even then, the Falcons only emerged with a single victory. Therefore, when facing the Bengals on Sunday, we might see a surprisingly high-scoring game. Cincinnati’s offense, alone, is averaging more than 27 points-per-game, where Atlanta enters play with an average pace not far behind. Wide receiver A.J. Green may not be at full strength on Sunday, but he is always in-play if he is active. The same goes for tight end Tyler Eifer, who is still looking for his first touchdown since December of 2016. Andy Dalton is an outstanding value play, given the loss of Joe Mixon in the backfield. Giovani Bernard is more than capable of filling in for Mixon – he’s another nice ‘sleeper,’ too – but he operates less as a true running back and more as a wide receiver – which boosts Dalton’s value even more. From Atlanta, Julio Jones is still the main target for me, especially since four players have caught a combined seven touchdown passes, to date, and Jones is not one of them.