We almost had a week without movement in the games, but a swap between Sunday Night Football and a late afternoon matchup means we had to experience another small shuffle in the schedule. The good news is that everything appears to be in-order for a standard slate of games.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 7 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It is extremely difficult to imagine how this game does not become high-scoring given the makeup of these two teams. Both offenses have plenty of talent, and they are both coming off good games so confidence should be high for both teams. Despite decent showings from both defenses last week, do not be fooled into thinking either defense is anything better than bad. Add in the fact that this game is being played in a dome, and the only logical expectation is points galore.
Targets: All offensive players
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Nobody in particular at this point
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I like to ask myself if I can “trust” certain teams. I always argue that nothing in the world of sports should be considered “safe,” but do I trust that a team will do what it should? In the case of both the Atlanta Falcons and the Detroit Lions, the answer is a resounding “no.” I trust neither. Still, the setup is excellent for a high-scoring game that has plenty of fantasy upside, and it means that I will uncomfortably look to this matchup for at least one player in my lineups.
Targets: All offensive players
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The outcomes of almost every single Bengals game continues to be puzzling, but no matter what, we continue to see that they are still not a very good football team. They rank 25th in the league in yards of offense and yards allowed on defense. Their offense ranks 28th in net yards per pass attempt and 30th in rush yards per attempt. The Browns’ offense simply has not been the same without Nick Chubb, and despite the positive matchup, I don’t think we see a major correction this week — especially given Baker Mayfield’s injury concern and poor play recently. I don’t think this game looks anything like the high-scoring one we saw when these two teams met in Week 2.
Targets: Kareem Hunt and either defense
Fades: Most offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Perhaps the most surprising outcome of Week 6 was not only that the Cincinnati Bengals held a commanding lead against the Colts, but that they did so by thriving on offense. This is the same team that tallied 205 total yards the week before, only to pop for 398. I’m not so sure it continues against the Cleveland Browns, but the reality is that neither team is likely to explode offensively. Cleveland saw how dangerous it is to let quarterback Baker Mayfield throw often, and we are almost certainly looking at another run-heavy attack against a Bengals defense that is allowing the fourth-most yards-per-carry.
Targets: Kareem Hunt, Cleveland’s defense, Giovanni Bernard — it’s hard not to like him with Joe Mixon out
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While it seems almost impossible that these two teams are two out of three of the remaining unbeaten teams, that is the world in which we live. While we continue to want to knock the Titans, they have looked extremely good on offense, and they have a few impressive wins on their season. The Steelers defense continues to amaze, but we have to question just how impressed we should be by the Steelers 5-0 start. They have played arguably the easiest schedule in the league so far based on their opponents and the fact that four of their five games have been played at home. It may not feel right, but the Titans are the better team right now, and they should come out and prove it this week.
Targets: Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson, Ryan Tannehill and A.J. Brown
Fades: James Conner and Steelers defense
Must-Owns: Anthony Firkser (if Jonnu Smith is out or less than 100%)
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If we have been given any ‘good breaks’ because of delays and rescheduling, it is that we have the fantastic matchup between two 5-0 teams in the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans. Both have won games using their preferred methods, which means that Pittsburgh suffocates opponents while Tennessee relentlessly runs the ball while also turning to the pass game when needed. This also presents a battle of opposing forces, where we might have to scale back exposure to both sides.
Targets: Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, Ryan Tannehill, and Pittsburgh’s pass-catchers
Fades: None in particular
Must-Owns: None
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Saints have not been overly impressive this year, but their offense has managed to find a way to score at least 24 points in every game so far. On the flip side, their defense has also allowed at least 23 points in every game. To that point, it is hard to see how this game doesn’t have at least a good amount of offense, especially with the Saints coming off their bye week. Alvin Kamara should continue to feast against this Panthers defense that ranks last in the league in fantasy points allowed to running backs.
Targets: Teddy Bridgewater, Mike Davis, Robby Anderson, Drew Brees, and Emmanuel Sanders
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Alvin Kamara
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I am not yet prepared to move entirely away from the New Orleans Saints’ offense, but I also don’t want to fall into the trap of perception and bias. The Saints’ offense has historically been excellent, but it only ranks 12th in the league in yards-per-game. The Carolina Panthers are actually 11th in yards against and in yards gained. Quietly, the Panthers’ offense is on par with New Orleans’. At least, according to the numbers. I won’t avoid the game completely, but I also won’t go overboard.
Targets: Mike Davis, D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, and carefully at least one player from the Saints (although he’s listed in my ‘must-own’ section)
Fades: Too much exposure to either offense
Must-Owns: Alvin Kamara
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Unless something drastic happens, my days of showing even the slightest support for the Jets are done. That is especially true with the Bills coming off far and away their two worst games of the season and looking for a rebound. If there were ever a “get right” game, this is it for the Bills. If Sam Darnold is active, then Jamison Crowder is worth owning any given week, but outside of him, the Jets are untouchable.
Targets: Josh Allen, Zack Moss, Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Cole Beasley, and Jamison Crowder
Fades: The Jets
Must-Owns: Bills defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It is with a heavy sigh that I have to write about the New York Jets, but what is there to actually say? They are completely incapable of doing anything positive in any element of the game, and their only signs-of-life would stem from the presence of quarterback Sam Darnold. If he’s healthy enough to play, then we do have some sneaky upside with the Jets rebounding from a shutout. There’s even a chance that rookie wide receiver Denzel Mims sees the field. Otherwise, if New York is without Darnold, it’s also without an opportunity to compete with the Buffalo Bills on either side of the ball.
Targets: Stefon Diggs and Josh Allen
Fades: Both defenses, unless Sam Darnold is out, in which case the Bills’ defense is in-play
Must-Owns: Jamison Crowder
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Everything about the Cowboys game last week was troubling, but there was nothing more troubling than the state of their offensive line. Seemingly every single play, Andy Dalton was under immense pressure, and now with the same dismantled offensive line, he has to face off against the very talented Washington defensive front. There is enough talent still for some fantasy production, just like we saw last week, but it is likely to be ugly once again for the Cowboys. Washington finally is in a position where we feel like they may score some points and have some actual value on offense given just how bad this Cowboys defense is.
Targets: Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Antonio Gibson, J.D. McKissic and Football Team defense
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Terry McLaurin
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Over the course of the week, this game has looked closer-and-closer with each passing day. Some of this is likely an overreaction to the Dallas Cowboys’ pitiful performance under the national spotlight, but there are also valid reasons for concern. Running back Ezekiel Elliott is probably not one of them, and he slides in as the first target from the matchup with the Washington Football Team. But Dallas has been unable to stop anyone, and I am fully prepared to take a few chances with offensive players from Washington in their best matchup of the season.
Targets: Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Antonio Gibson
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Terry McLaurin
Green Bay Packers at Houston Texans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This is without question my favorite game of the week to stack. The Texans offense has finally come to life as they have surpassed 400 yards of offense in consecutive games while also putting up at least 30 points in each game. They get to match up against a Packers defense that is outside the top twenty in the league in efficiency against the run and the pass. On the flip side, we have a Packers offense that was seemingly unstoppable to start the year, that is coming off a downright horrendous game. That game was against an elite Buccaneers defense, while this week they get to play a Texans defense that has been one of the very worst in the league all season long. I’m expecting a major bounce back from the Packers, and good ball movement from the Texans as they try to play keep up.
Targets: Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Robert Tonyan (if healthy), Deshaun Watson, Will Fuller V, Brandin Cooks and Darren Fells
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Aaron Jones
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Regardless of what actually happens, the common expectation for the game between the Green Bay Packers and Houston Texans is likely that Green Bay rebounds after a terrible performance against the league’s best defense — in yards-per-game — in Tampa Bay. It makes sense. Houston’s defense is allowing the third-most yards-per-game and, even with the swap at the head coaching position to former defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel, the Texans have allowed a total of 971 yards over the last two weeks. The good news for fantasy owners is that Houston has also tallied 898 yards over its last two games and scored a combined 66 points with no fewer than 30 points in either contest. In the first four games of the season, the Texans’ highest point total was 23.
Targets: Everyone, even though I can see a semi-‘trap’ where this game isn’t as explosive as we think in terms of points — but still delivers in yards
Fades: None
Must-Owns: Aaron Jones
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: After a disappointing loss in Week 5, the Chiefs cruised to victory against a solid Bills team, and there is no reason to expect any slip ups again anytime soon. Denver pulled off an admirable win, but they did so by shutting down a Patriots offense that is nowhere near that of the Chiefs. The Chiefs offense should be able to continue moving the ball and scoring points like we’re used to seeing. That will force the Broncos to lean on Drew Lock more this week, and after his 10-24 day last Sunday, I don’t have a ton of confidence in their ability to match the Chiefs just yet.
Targets: Patrick Mahomes, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Tim Patrick
Fades: Drew Lock and Broncos Running Backs
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While I often rely on solid offenses doing well against stout defenses, I do want to pause whenever I see a curious division game. The Kansas City Chiefs are traveling to play against a Denver Broncos team that completely stymied the Patriots’ offense, and it would be wise to pump the metaphorical brakes. Should the Chiefs be fine on offense? Of course. But we have the familiarity of a division game, the altitude in Denver, and the recent play of the Broncos as causes for concern. It won’t be enough to avoid them entirely, but be careful not to be overzealous when building your lineup.
Targets: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Le’Veon Bell (limit exposure, though), and Drew Lock
Fades: Too much exposure to either offense
Must-Owns: None
San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In a week full of potentially explosive offensive duels, this is a game I will be paying no attention to. The 49ers got back in the win column last week, as we had expected, but the offense wasn’t exactly dominant, and they are likely without Raheem Mostert after he got hurt once again last week. On the other hand, the Patriots offense was basically nonexistent last week, and I don’t have a ton of faith that they turn it around this week. This has all the making of a run-heavy game with not a lot of fantasy excitement.
Targets: Jerick McKinnon, George Kittle, and James White
Fades: All other offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It always feels dangerous to universally move away from a particular matchup, but I can’t see how we can comfortably find enough fantasy options in the game between the San Francisco 49ers and New England Patriots to force them into any lineups. Of course, the pathetic play of New England’s offense in its last game should lead to a better effort in Week 7, but how much better? We likely aren’t looking at a high score for either squad and, even if we get some offense, there are too many mouths to feed on both teams.
Targets: Patriots’ defense
Fades: Everyone else
Must-Owns: None
Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Ignore the fact that these are two one win teams, the Chargers are a significantly better football team than the Jaguars in just about every way possible. The Chargers could easily have two or three more victories than they have while the Jaguars are lucky to have one at all. I’m fully expecting the Chargers to have taken their bye week to catch their breaths and prepare to turn their season around as they head into a very winnable stretch of games.
Targets: Jaguars Wide Receivers, Justin Herbert, Joshua Kelley, Justin Jackson, Keenan Allen (if healthy) and Mike Williams
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Gone are the days where we would hesitate before starting an offense against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and I am now actively seeking players to start against Jacksonville’s horrible defense. That opportunity presents itself beautifully on Sunday, where the Los Angeles Chargers return from their bye and get to host the Jaguars. I’ll usually ask Jacksonville to rack up some ‘garbage points’ via quarterback Gardner Minshew and possible running back James Robinson as a pass-catcher, but the team has managed 16 or fewer points in three-of-its-last-four games.
Targets: Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, and James Robinson
Fades: None, but I would be careful using too many Jaguars against the Chargers’ defense
Must-Owns: None, although Robinson is close
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Las Vegas Raiders
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: This is one of the tougher games of the week for me to get a read on. We have the highly efficient and effective Raiders offense going up against arguably the best defense in the NFL in the Buccaneers. On the flip side, we get the Buccaneers offense that ranks 20th in the league in yards (and is being propped up by their great defense) against a Raiders defense that hasn’t really been able to slow down anyone this year. With all of that in mind, I don’t see how this game isn’t a fairly closely contested game throughout, but it isn’t screaming fantasy gold to me either.
Targets: Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, Josh Jacobs, Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller
Fades: Mike Evans and Henry Ruggs III
Must-Owns: Ronald Jones II
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ defense has moved into the league lead for fewest yards-yards-allowed-per-game, and it puts any offense in a dangerous position as a result. The Las Vegas Raiders will almost never abandon their running game, and the steady volume is welcomed for fantasy owners. On the other side of the matchup, we have a Buccaneers offense that may soon be adding wide receiver Antonio Brown. We might see an uptick in production from the other pass-catchers as they each have an increased share for at least this week.
Targets: Josh Jacobs and all Buccaneers pass-catchers
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Despite what that game looked like on Monday night, I was not overly impressed by the Cardinals. Their defense took advantage of a brutalized offensive line, and their offense was mostly inefficient outside of a few splash plays. Arizona is also now coming off a short week while Seattle is coming off their bye week. I fully expect Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense to come out hot and continue their strong start to the season. Despite some inconsistencies, the Cardinals offense has enough talent to make big plays — especially against a very beatable defense like the Seahawks.
Targets: Russell Wilson, Chris Carson, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Kyler Murray and Christian Kirk
Fades: Both Defenses
Must-Owns: DeAndre Hopkins (assuming there is no injury concern)
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Earlier in this article, I wrote about the putrid defense of the Cowboys and the likelihood of points being scored in the matchup between Green Bay and Houston, yet the divisional showdown between the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals might be the most appealing of all. Seattle ranks dead last in yards-allowed-per-game and has given up at least 415 yards of offense to all five opponents. But of course, the story of Seattle is its offense, which ranks eighth in yards, fourth in net-yards-per-pass-attempt, and eighth in yards-per-rush. As a team, the Seahawks are also averaging the most points-per-game. In summation, start everyone.
Targets: Everyone. Really, everyone.
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If you’ve been reading this article weekly, you should already know my feelings on this game. Based on total yards, the Rams have the tenth best offense in the league and the fourth best defense in the league. By the same metric, the Bears defense ranks seventh, and their offense sits at a dismal 28th in the league. No 5-1 team in the NFL should have an offense that ranks 27th in net yards per pass attempt and 25th in rush yards per attempt. The Rams defense should comfortably control this Bears offense from start to finish. The Rams offense doesn’t have a great matchup, but they have the talent and creativity to be effective enough to get the win in this game.
Targets: Allen Robinson, Darrell Henderson Jr., Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Rams defense
Fades: Nick Foles and David Montgomery
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Rams are a perfect Primetime matchup because of the two completely opposite ways to play it. If you’re targeting the Rams, then you have the ‘chalk,’ but with enough players to fill a lineup with relative ease. Otherwise, the Bears make for the perfect sneaky ‘stack’ as they have been thoroughly unimpressive on offense, but could surprise under the national spotlight.
Targets: Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and the Rams’ defense (if picking an easy win for Los Angeles), Nick Foles and the Bears’ defense (if picking Chicago to compete)
Fades: Chicago’s running backs
Must-Owns: Allen Robinson