Opening Day is always exciting, but one of its greatest characteristics is the value is gives in daily fantasy football. Pricing for the first slate of the year includes a combination of last season’s performance and this week’s expectation. The reality is that it will soon change to reflect what happens in 2023 but, until that’s the case, we will have immediate value. It starts now.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 1 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our DFS Overview column.
Please Note: Starting in 2023, we have revamped this column to be centered around two slates: main Sunday (1pm and 4pm eastern) and the Primetime games (Sunday night and Monday bundled together). All of the names in a given category are with respect to their prices in the context of a classic format using DraftKings.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Bijan Robinson ($8,000), Bryce Young ($5,500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Miles Sanders ($5,600), Tyler Allgeier ($5,400), Drake London ($5,400), Desmond Ridder ($4,900), and Kyle Pitts ($4,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Hayden Hurst ($3,000) and Panthers Defense ($2,600)
Lottery Ticket: Jonathan Mingo ($3,200)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Bijan Robinson ($8,000),
Fair Value for Expectations: Miles Sanders ($5,600), Bryce Young ($5,500), Tyler Allgeier ($5,400), Drake London ($5,400), Desmond Ridder ($4,900), and Kyle Pitts ($4,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Adam Thielen ($4,600) if he plays, Hayden Hurst ($3,000), Mack Hollins ($3,900)
Lottery Ticket: Jonathan Mingo ($3,200)
Must-Own: None
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Joe Mixon ($6,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Nick Chubb ($8,200), Ja’Marr Chase ($8,100), Joe Burrow ($7,100), Tee Higgins ($6,800), and David Njoku ($4,200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Deshaun Watson ($6,000) and Amari Cooper ($5,800)
Lottery Ticket: Elijah Moore ($3,800)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Bengals Defense ($2,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Nick Chubb ($8,200), Ja’Marr Chase ($8,100), Joe Burrow ($7,100), Joe Mixon ($6,800), Tee Higgins ($6,800), Deshaun Watson ($6,000), and David Njoku ($4,200)
Underpriced for Expectation: Amari Cooper ($5,800)
Lottery Ticket: Marquise Goodwin ($3,000)
Must-Own: None
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Travis Etienne Jr. ($6,900), Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,200), and Jaguars Defense ($3,500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Trevor Lawrence ($6,500), Anthony Richardson ($5,600), Christian Kirk ($5,600), Evan Engram ($4,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: Calvin Ridley ($6,500)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Travis Etienne Jr. ($6,900), Christian Kirk ($5,600), Evan Engram ($4,700), and Jaguars Defense ($3,500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Trevor Lawrence ($6,500), Calvin Ridley ($6,500), Michael Pittman Jr. ($6,200), Anthony Richardson ($5,600),
Underpriced for Expectation: Deon Jackson ($4,100)
Lottery Ticket: Colts Defense ($2,400)
Must-Own: None
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Kirk Cousins ($6,300) and Vikings Defense ($3,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Justin Jefferson ($8,800), Alexander Mattison ($6,500), Chris Godwin ($5,900), T.J. Hockenson ($5,900), and Jordan Addison ($5,100)
Underpriced for Expectation: Mike Evans ($6,300), Rachaad White ($5,500)
Lottery Ticket: Baker Mayfield ($4,900)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Justin Jefferson ($8,800), Jordan Addison ($5,100), and Vikings Defense ($3,900)
Fair Value for Expectations: Alexander Mattison ($6,500), Kirk Cousins ($6,300), Mike Evans ($6,300), and T.J. Hockenson ($5,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Chris Godwin ($5,900), Rachaad White ($5,500)
Lottery Ticket: Baker Mayfield ($4,900)
Must-Own: None
Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Saints Defense ($3,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Derek Henry ($7,800), DeAndre Hopkins ($6,900), Chris Olave ($6,500), Jamaal Williams ($5,100), Treylon Burks ($5,000), and Juwan Johnson ($3,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Derek Carr ($5,300), Ryan Tannehill ($5,200), and Chig Okonkwo ($3,800)
Lottery Ticket: Rashid Shaheed ($3,700)
Must-Own: Michael Thomas ($5,100)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Chris Olave ($6,500), Treylon Burks ($5,000), and Saints Defense ($3,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: DeAndre Hopkins ($6,900), Jamaal Williams ($5,100), and Juwan Johnson ($3,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Derek Carr ($5,300), Ryan Tannehill ($5,200), and Chig Okonkwo ($3,800)
Lottery Ticket: Rashid Shaheed ($3,700)
Must-Own: Derek Henry ($7,800)
San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: George Kittle ($5,700), Brock Purdy ($5,400), and 49ers Defense ($3,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Christian McCaffrey ($8,700), Najee Harris ($6,100), Deebo Samuel ($5,500), and Brandon Aiyuk ($4,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Diontae Johnson ($5,300), Kenny Pickett ($5,200), George Pickens ($5,000)
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: George Kittle ($5,700), Deebo Samuel ($5,500), Brock Purdy ($5,400), and 49ers Defense ($3,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: Christian McCaffrey ($8,700), Najee Harris ($6,100), and Brandon Aiyuk ($4,900)
Underpriced for Expectation: Diontae Johnson ($5,300), Kenny Pickett ($5,200), George Pickens ($5,000)
Lottery Ticket: Steelers Defense ($3,000)
Must-Own: None, but I am almost certainly going to use Diontae Johnson, Kenny Pickett, or George Pickens in most of my lineups
Arizona Cardinals at Washington Commanders
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: James Conner ($6,400) and Terry McLaurin ($6,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Antonio Gibson ($5,200), Marquise Brown ($5,200), Sam Howell ($4,900), Jahan Dotson ($5,000), and Joshua Dobbs ($4,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,100), Commanders Defense ($2,800), and Cardinals Defense ($2,500)
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Antonio Gibson ($5,200),
Fair Value for Expectations: Terry McLaurin ($6,400), Marquise Brown ($5,200), Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,100), Jahan Dotson ($5,000), Sam Howell ($4,900), Joshua Dobbs ($4,600), and Commanders Defense ($2,800)
Underpriced for Expectation: James Conner ($6,400), Cardinals Defense ($2,500)
Lottery Ticket: Greg Dortch ($3,500)
Must-Own: None
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Mark Andrews ($6,200), C.J. Stroud ($5,400), Robert Woods ($5,000), and Dalton Schultz ($4,600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Lamar Jackson ($8,000), J.K. Dobbins ($6,600), Dameon Pierce ($5,800), Rashod Bateman ($5,300), Odell Beckham Jr. ($5,000), Nico Collins ($4,700), and Ravens Defense ($4,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Gus Edwards ($4,500), Zay Flowers (almost a must-own at just $4,000)
Lottery Ticket: Tank Dell ($3,000)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Rashod Bateman ($5,300), Robert Woods ($5,000),and Ravens Defense ($4,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Lamar Jackson ($8,000), J.K. Dobbins ($6,600), Mark Andrews ($6,200), Dameon Pierce ($5,800), C.J. Stroud ($5,400), Odell Beckham Jr. ($5,000), Nico Collins ($4,700), and Gus Edwards ($4,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Dalton Schultz ($4,600) and Zay Flowers ($4,000)
Lottery Ticket: Tank Dell ($3,000)
Must-Own: None, but there is a lot of value with Houston
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Justin Fields ($7,700), D.J. Moore ($6,100), Christian Watson ($6,000), D’Onta Foreman ($5,500), and Cole Kmet ($4,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Khalil Herbert ($5,300), A.J. Dillon ($5,200), Jordan Love ($5,000), and Darnell Mooney ($4,500)
Underpriced for Expectation: Packers Defense ($2,800)
Lottery Ticket: Jayden Reed ($3,000)
Must-Own: Aaron Jones ($6,300)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: D’Onta Foreman ($5,500)
Fair Value for Expectations: Justin Fields ($7,700), D.J. Moore ($6,100), Christian Watson ($6,000), Khalil Herbert ($5,300), A.J. Dillon ($5,200), Darnell Mooney ($4,500), and Cole Kmet ($4,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Jordan Love ($5,000)
Lottery Ticket: Chase Claypool ($3,400)
Must-Own: Aaron Jones ($6,300)
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Davante Adams ($7,900), Josh Jacobs ($7,700), Jimmy Garappolo ($5,300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Jerry Jeudy ($6,600), Samaje Perine ($5,100), Jakobi Meyers ($4,800), Greg Dulcich ($4,000), and Broncos Defense ($3,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Russell Wilson ($5,900) and Courtland Sutton ($5,200)
Lottery Ticket: Marvin Mims Jr. ($3,000)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Josh Jacobs ($7,700), Jimmy Garappolo ($5,300), and Jakobi Meyers ($4,800),
Fair Value for Expectations: Davante Adams ($7,900), Jerry Jeudy ($6,600), Javonte Williams ($5,700), Samaje Perine ($5,100), Greg Dulcich ($4,000), and Broncos Defense ($3,600)
Underpriced for Expectation: Russell Wilson ($5,900) and Courtland Sutton ($5,200)
Lottery Ticket: Marvin Mims Jr. ($3,000)
Must-Own: None
Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jalen Hurts ($7,800), Ezekiel Elliott ($5,200), Mac Jones ($5,100), and Dallas Goedert ($5,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: A.J. Brown ($7,600), DeVonta Smith ($7,200), Rahmondre Stevenson ($7,000), D’Andre Swift ($5,400), Rashaad Penny ($5,000), Juju Smith-Schuster ($4,800), and Patriots Defense ($2,700)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Jalen Hurts ($7,800), D’Andre Swift ($5,400), Ezekiel Elliott ($5,200), Mac Jones ($5,100), and Rashaad Penny ($5,000), and Juju Smith-Schuster ($4,800)
Fair Value for Expectations: A.J. Brown ($7,600), DeVonta Smith ($7,200), Rahmondre Stevenson ($7,000), Dallas Goedert ($5,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Patriots Defense ($2,700)
Lottery Ticket: Mike Gesicki ($3,200)
Must-Own: None
Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Tyreek Hill ($8,200) and Tua Tagovailoa ($6,700)
Fair Value for Expectations: Austin Ekeler ($8,400), Keenan Allen ($7,200), Jaylen Waddle ($7,100), Raheem Mostert ($5,400), and Quentin Johnston ($4,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Mike Williams ($5,700) and Joshua Palmer ($4,000)
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: Justin Herbert ($6,900)
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Tyreek Hill ($8,200) and Raheem Mostert ($5,400)
Fair Value for Expectations: Austin Ekeler ($8,400), Keenan Allen ($7,200), Jaylen Waddle ($7,100), Justin Herbert ($6,900), Mike Williams ($5,700) and Quentin Johnston ($4,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Gerald Everett ($4,300) and Joshua Palmer ($4,000)
Lottery Ticket: None
Must-Own: None
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Geno Smith ($6,100) and Kenneth Walker III ($6,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: DK Metcalf ($7,000), Tyler Lockett ($6,700), Cam Akers ($6,200), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,900), Zach Charbonnet ($4,800), and Tyler Higbee ($4,800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Matthew Stafford ($5,700) and Van Jefferson ($4,700)
Lottery Ticket: Puka Nucua ($3,000)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: DK Metcalf ($7,000), Tyler Lockett ($6,700),
Fair Value for Expectations: Cam Akers ($6,200), Geno Smith ($6,100), Kenneth Walker III ($6,000), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,900), Zach Charbonnet ($4,800), and Tyler Higbee ($4,800)
Underpriced for Expectation: Matthew Stafford ($5,700), Van Jefferson ($4,700), Rams Defense ($2,700)
Lottery Ticket: Tutu Atwell ($3,000)
Must-Own: None
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Tony Pollard ($7,200), Daniel Jones ($5,900), Darren Waller ($5,300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Saquon Barkley ($7,600), CeeDee Lamb ($7,600), Dak Prescott ($6,400), Brandin Cooks ($5,100), Isaiah Hodgins ($4,700), Cowboys Defense ($3,600), and Jake Ferguson ($3,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: None
Lottery Ticket: Jalin Hyatt ($3,700)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Darren Waller ($5,300)
Fair Value for Expectations: Saquon Barkley ($7,600), CeeDee Lamb ($7,600), Tony Pollard ($7,200), Dak Prescott ($6,400), Isaiah Hodgins ($4,700), Cowboys Defense ($3,600), and Jake Ferguson ($3,400)
Underpriced for Expectation: Brandin Cooks ($5,100) and Michael Gallup ($3,900)
Lottery Ticket: Kavontae Turpin ($3,000)
Must-Own: None
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Luke’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Breece Hall ($6,000)
Fair Value for Expectations: Josh Allen ($7,600), Stefon Diggs ($7,500), Garrett Wilson ($7,400), Dalvin Cook ($5,600), Damien Harris ($5,300), Gabe Davis ($5,300), Allen Lazard ($5,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Aaron Rodgers ($6,100), James Cook ($5,800), and Dalton Kincaid ($3,300)
Lottery Ticket: Khalil Shakir ($3,400)
Must-Own: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Overpriced for Expectation: Breece Hall ($6,000) and Dalvin Cook ($5,600)
Fair Value for Expectations: Josh Allen ($7,600), Stefon Diggs ($7,500), Garrett Wilson ($7,400), Damien Harris ($5,300), Gabe Davis ($5,300), and Allen Lazard ($5,000)
Underpriced for Expectation: Aaron Rodgers ($6,100), James Cook ($5,800), and Dalton Kincaid ($3,300)
Lottery Ticket: Jets Defense ($2,700)
Must-Own: Garrett Wilson ($7,400)