I know that, at its core, this article is supposed to feature an objective look at the upcoming Major League Baseball and identify the teams that have value on one direction or another. In terms of the teams and their projects, I will stick to that premise.
In terms of the sport, itself, I cannot.
Baseball is special. It holds a dear place in my heart, but I’m not alone in this affection.
Over the past few weeks, we were treated to some of the best that the sport has to offer. The drama of March rivaled anything we have seen in October for a long time, and it was aided by a sense of connection between countries all over the world. We cared about players from Venezuela and Israel and Australia, and we saw passion and pride for both the game and the players’ heritages.
Then, of course, we saw the perfect culmination.
I can’t believe I’m actually typing this because it is so improbable that it truly came down to the moment everyone wanted. Shohei Ohtani, undoubtedly one of the best baseball players we have ever witnessed — and a legend among Japanese players — took the mound with a one-run lead and faced off with Mike Trout, undoubtedly one of the best players we have ever witnessed — and a legend among American players. Because there are always ways to add drama to a narrative, I’ll throw in the fact that they are teammates on the Los Angeles Angels.
For those of us who live and breathe baseball, we didn’t just get the showdown we wanted, but we got it at the peak of intensity and it produced a fitting end. Ohtani challenged Trout with two fastballs right over the middle of the plate and then ended it with his best pitch — a ridiculous slider that showed like that same fastball and darted out of the strike zone. Trout swung all three times and missed.
Again, this was baseball at its best because it was two of the greatest in the sport challenging each other.
It’s moments like this that define baseball.
There is almost no chance that anything happening over the next few months will compete with the World Baseball Classic, but there is an undeniable buzz around the start of this season. The hope is that no momentum is lost because of rule changes and a general, albeit temporary, transition back to Spring Training before we dive into the action. Regardless, we were, once again, shown what this sport has to offer.
And it’s only the beginning.
Below are my predictions for the 2023 Major League Baseball Season. The green highlight indicates a season-long over/under win total pick. I wrote about any team that either had an over-under win total pick, is projected to make the playoffs, or is particularly interesting. All over-under win totals and futures are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. As always, please do your own research and due diligence before acting on anything written in this article. Click here for Mario’s 2023 fantasy baseball rankings.
American League Projected Standings
Baltimore Orioles – UNDER 76.5 Wins – No Playoffs
As a baseball fan, I loved every minute of the Baltimore Orioles’ surge to their first winning season since 2016. As someone who picked the team’s win total to go ‘over’ its projected number, I was even happier. Still, the Orioles put together an improbable season, regardless of the emergence of some young players. The reality is the team allowed more runs than it scored, and that is simply unsustainable to carry from one season to the next. On top of that, Baltimore has been rather quiet this past offseason and, unlike other teams that have proven capable of building a winner over a long stretch of time, we can’t give the Orioles the benefit of the doubt. They fall back into a losing record this year.
Toronto Blue Jays – UNDER 91.5 Wins – No Playoffs
I always care about perception when it comes to making picks, and I love a team that has a perception that is easy to read. One of those teams is the Toronto Blue Jays. For the past few years, Toronto has clearly had a reputation as a young team filled with sluggers, but lacking pitching. Last year, starter Alek Manoah and closer Jordan Romano emerged as two bright spots, and Toronto promptly made the playoffs for only the second time since 2016 — the other was the abbreviated 2020 season. The new perception around the Blue Jays is that it just needs to continue to pitch well in order to keep winning games and, while that is oversimplifying everything, it also subtly points to how the team can fail. The pitching staff is filled with looming negative regression — specifically, the two I mentioned earlier — and, unless the entire lineup can overcome the deficiencies on the mound, we are looking at another comparative disappointment relative to expectations.
Tampa Bay Rays – No Win Total Pick – Wild Card Berth
I will admit that I’m entering this season with a level of caution toward the Tampa Bay Rays. They are one of the smartest organizations in any sport, and they have found ways to win no matter what restrictions are in-place. The problem is that the number of restrictions continues to rise, and it will force Tampa Bay to be even more creative than they have in the past. If they can, again, adapt to changes like the banning of the shift, then we are looking at another big output by the Rays. Their ceiling is arguably as high as any team.
New York Yankees – No Win Total Pick – AL East Winner
It’s the same old story with the New York Yankees. They are built to win in the regular season. Whether I am writing as a fan or an analyst, it still points to the same conclusion: a team needs to make it to the postseason before it can win there. Barring some sort of collapse — which is possible, given the preseason injuries to the pitching staff — the Yankees should once again rise to the top of the American League East. It just won’t be as easy as last year with the overall negative regression almost certainly weighing the team down.
Chicago White Sox – OVER 83.5 Wins – AL Central Winner
For the second consecutive year, I struggled with how to sort out the American League Central. The good news? We have a winner. Not yet obviously, but the team that should surge to the top of the standings is the one that had tremendous hype heading into last year and failed. That is, the Chicago White Sox. The same potential remains with Chicago that has been around since it started promoting its prospects, and we will see it come together as it rebounds from a lackluster 81-81 season.
Cleveland Guardians – UNDER 86.5 Wins – No Playoffs
In the zero-sum game of Major League Baseball, if one team is moving the top of the division, another team is moving out of it. Such is the case for the Cleveland Guardians. Simply put, the Guardians overachieved last year, winning a few more games than the underlying numbers suggest. They did bring in Josh Bell to fill the middle of the lineup, but there were few changes elsewhere. That should lead to gravity taking over and pulling Cleveland out of the playoff picture.
Los Angeles Angels – No Win Total Pick – Wild Card Berth
Indeed, I’m taking the bait. The Los Angeles Angels had their two most prominent players featured heavily in the World Baseball Classic — so much so that I opened this article by talking about them — and it is going to cause inflation in the expectations of over-under win total. I won’t bite on that part — there just isn’t enough value to make them an official pick — but the Angels should compete for a playoff berth with arguably two of the best players in the sport — and one that can help on both sides of the ball.
Texas Rangers – OVER 81.5 Wins – Wild Card Berth
The Texas Rangers were a gift heading into last season. They were the prototypical team that made a bunch of splashy moves but were more interested in overpaying for players than actually fitting pieces together. Not only did they easily fall beneath their over-under win total, but they found a way to underperform beyond that. Considering how Texas only allowed 36 more runs than it scored over the course of the season, it could have hovered around .500 and fought for some respectability. Instead, the Rangers were closer to a 100-loss season than a winning record. The good news? Texas has remained aggressive but actually did improve its squad this year. Between the natural positive correction — the team did score more than 700 runs over the course of the season — and a few key additions, we could be looking at one of the sneaky ‘sleepers’ of 2023.
Seattle Mariners – UNDER 86.5 Wins – No Playoffs
Over the past few years, the Seattle Mariners have been one of the easier teams to read. For a long time, they were undervalued just by being forgotten in a top-heavy division. The finally emerged with back-to-back 90-win seasons and their first playoff appearance since 2001 — wow! The expectations are now enormously high, but that’s where we need to take pause. In addition to only winning 90 games — this is a great output, but it’s not much higher than this year’s over-under win total — there is definite regression surrounding Rookie of the Year Julio Rodriguez. The same level of concern can be said about many of the contributing factors from last year’s playoff team, and there’s likely to be a decrease before we see any further success from Seattle.
Houston Astros – No Win Total Pick – AL West Winner
It’s just too difficult to pick against the defending World Champions, even with the aforementioned increase in competition within the division. Normally, I would love it — I’m always a fan of ‘selling’ a team at its peak — but the Houston Astros are too well-built to suddenly fall off-the-map. Even with the loss of someone like Justin Verlander, the franchise will be able to continue churning out talent that can step up and approximate a portion of his value. The Astros aren’t going away just yet.
National League Projected StandingsPlease register or login to read the rest of the article.