Each week, we look for opportunities to buy or sell teams based on misaligned spreads. Until each team completes more games, however, the task remains challenging. That is, if we only focus on the records of the teams competing head-to-head.
The small sample size of the young NFL season assigns a standard 2-0, 1-1, or 0-2 record to each team. By virtue of seeing these numbers, we assume that the league is divided into three tiers.
Obviously, it isn’t.
The Packers sit at 1-1 after a rough, nationally-televised loss, but the Eagles jump out to 2-0 after winning on Monday Night Football. Are the 0-2 Saints buried? Are the 1-1 Panthers closer to perfection or failure?
The NFL standings are unintentionally deceiving. Even though it factors in strength-of-schedule for more complicated calculations, it assumes that every game is currently equal – or, at least, still in the process of having its value defined. With this knowledge, we can prepare for Week 3 by focusing heavily on teams with misleading records – and team statistics – and act accordingly.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2016 Season: 8-6 (Last Week: 3-3)
(2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2)
All Picks Against Spread – 2016 Season: 18-14 (Last Week: 9-7)
(2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4)
Houston Texans at New England Patriots
It is never easy when it comes to the New England Patriots, is it? Not only does the franchise defy all odds and win its first two games without Tom Brady to stand alone atop the division, but it does so in impressive fashion, improving to a perfect 2-0 against the spread.
If the suspension of Brady couldn’t slow down New England, will the injury to Jimmy Garoppolo finally bring down the Patriots?
The success that Garoppolo enjoyed in his brief stint as New England’s quarterback – 498 yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions, and a 70 percent completion rate – can be attributed to both the coaching staff and Garoppolo’s talent. It also doesn’t hurt that he trained behind one of the game’s greatest quarterbacks for the past two seasons.