The improbable continues to transition to reality.
Over the last three weeks, we have watched plays upon which we normally rely fail, and last-minute weights tip the scales. We don’t look to make excuses for these losses but, instead, learn from them. To anybody who has asked, we have provided the same reply: the areas that have burned us are temporary. Teams and trends only perform at an unsustainable level for so long. By definition, it cannot sustain itself.
In Week 6, only four favorites – as per our numbers that locked on Wednesday – covered the spread. While we absolutely love to target underdogs – and we did, last week – it was clearly not the emphasis on underdogs that hurt us, but rather the selection of underdogs. Of course, this appears obvious. Until we consider which teams have pulled us down.
The specific franchises we have targeted week after week act as microcosm of the season, in general. For example, if we pick the Bears every time they play, their 1-5 record against the spread obviously is reflected in our own. Their downtrend is our downtrend. But all teams have peaks and valleys throughout the season, especially against the spread. When Chicago takes off, we do not want to miss the flight.
Therefore, it should come as no surprise that the weeks providing losses have given us the opportunity to re-invest in previously unattractive assets. Only at a discount.
Buy low. Sell high. Right now, our picks and our teams are undervalued.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2016 Season: 20-21-1 (Last Week: 3-4-1)
(2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2)
All Picks Against Spread – 2016 Season: 44-46-2 (Last Week: 5-8-2)
(2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4)
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Why not begin the week with a battle of perceptions? After all, we find this to be the most important element to picking games against the spread.
Are the Green Bay Packers now bad? Are they, as many want to suggest, ‘in trouble?’ Let’s investigate.