There is a fairly common belief that Week 1 of any given season is the most difficult to predict.

Wrong.

While it is true that we don’t entirely know what to expect from a team before we have seen it in meaningful action we do, at least, know the intention. We know every single team wants to win on Opening Day, and we know they will put their best effort into the weekend. We cannot say the same for Week 17.

We have little proof that playoff-bound teams will care enough about the final regular season game to compete for 60 minutes and, worse, we cannot guarantee that another game won’t influence how the remainder of the first will be managed. For example, if the Saints start pulling away from the Buccaneers, will the Panthers hold back some players in Atlanta?

Thankfully, we actually do not have as many teams in direct competition as it might appear, given the overlap of games. Most teams are jockeying for position, and only a select few have a realistic chance to improve their standing. And, we can always look back to years past and find some interesting commonalities to what we have in front of us, especially with how the spreads foresee the closing of a given season.

Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.

*Confidence Picks – 2017 Season: 47-44-4 (Last Week: 3-3)

(2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (3-Year Total: 183-158-7)

All Picks Against Spread – 2017 Season: 123-107-10 (Last Week: 9-6-1)

(2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (3-Year Total: 415-367-19)

For the final week of the season, I decided to put my pick after each write-up for dramatic purposes. Let me know if you like this change and I’ll implement it for next year’s column. Either email me at contact@sporfolio.com or tweet at me @MarioMergola. As always, thanks for reading!

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

Between last year’s final standings and the nature of an all-divisional-matchup weekend to close the year, it must have appeared almost impossible for a Week 17 contest between the Packers and Lions to have absolutely no playoff implications, yet here we are. The NFC North is one-of-two divisions to send a brand new participant to the postseason – compared to last year – after having sent two from 2016. The Packers and Lions were those two playoff teams now left out of the 2017 version of the party.

The game may be devoid of impact, but it is rather noticeable by virtue of its large spread. Then again, the underdog is coming off a nationally televised pre-holiday outing in which it was shutout. We begin there.

I continue to update the statistic throughout the year, and it has held water on nearly every occasion. To paraphrase, teams that get shutout tend to have, at worst, a decent offensive output the following week. The most recent test subject was the New York Jets, who rebounded from a 23-0 loss in Denver to score 19 in New Orleans one week later. What has not continued to be fruitful is the ability to turn the offensive recovery into a win, as the last four teams to get shutout also lost the following week.

Thankfully, we aren’t

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