If there is one singular trend that I follow on a weekly basis, it is the collective overreaction to games that went in our favor, but against the general expectations from a previous week.
It makes sense.
There was a certain level of faith placed in a group of picks, and they disappointed a large number of people. In essence, these looked like ‘surprises.’ They weren’t.
The football-watching world is fickle. It changes its mind on a whim. But, when making such shifts, it usually fails to inspect why something missed.
The assessment only scratches the surface. It doesn’t check out the foundation. With a deeper look, we can identify exactly how these teams suddenly flipped. And we will need to take this approach, because nearly all of Week 7’s matchups include major changes in perception as each team pens its midseason resume.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2017 Season: 20-15-1 (Last Week: 4-1)
(2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (3-Year Total: 183-158-7)
All Picks Against Spread – 2017 Season: 50-38-3 (Last Week: 8-6)
(2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (3-Year Total: 415-367-19)
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders
As stated in the introduction, one of the most opportunistic setups of a given week involves two teams coming off respective games in which they ‘disappointed’ a large support base. This setup grows more enticing when it includes two teams that were picked correctly by this column one week ago.
To the dismay of many, the teams performed as expected, and should neither be penalized nor rewarded for their output. They can now move into the following week with a relatively clean slate. Of course, we can view it as such. Most others won’t.
Both the Chiefs and Raiders entered Week 6 as home favorites in their respective games and each left with a loss. For Kansas City, this was the first of such outcomes. It was also the first time the suddenly offensive-minded Chiefs scored fewer than 24 points – only 13. Even with the extreme drop in production, Kansas City still ranks second in the league for points scored and yards gained. The winning streak might have snapped, but the Chiefs’ offense is still dangerous.
Oakland is in the middle of its own streak and, to its dismay, it’s of the losing variety. And, in another contrast with Kansas City, the Raiders are witnessing quite the decline on offense. The team has now lost four consecutive games, scoring an average of 13.25 points-per-game over this span. Not once did they break the 17-point barrier.
Removing the overreactions to last week’s events, we can simply view each team relative to its current trajectory. Indeed, both lost, but the Raiders appear to be spiraling out of control, while the Chiefs just hit their first speedbump. They slowed, but will be stopped? As always, we turn to the spread for our answer.
The opening spread of two-and-a-half points in a division game was relatively small. So small that it is easy to excuse the Chiefs’ Week 6 loss by admitting that Pittsburgh is still one of the better teams in the league. So small that it is easy to further sell the Raiders after losing to a Chargers team whose record looks far worse than its level of play. So small that it is a ‘trap.’
Kansas City can have its excuse, but Oakland deserves one, as well. During the four-game losing streak, the Raiders attempted 122 passes. Derek Carr – a legitimate MVP candidate one year ago – has been responsible for fewer than 65 percent of said passes. The losing streak suddenly looks much more reasonable.
Carr may not be completely healthy, but he is currently off the injured list and returns to an offense that is swelling with talent that has not yet been fully exploited. That changes on Thursday night against a Chiefs defense that is ranked 29th in the league in yards allowed. Kansas City will get back to its scoring ways, but so will Oakland.
The Raiders win by four points and beat the spread.
Prediction: Oakland Raiders +3
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams – in London
I tend to place a high importance on patterns in the London games – and the week leading up to such games. Part of this is due to uncharted territory – most of the industry does not necessarily separate these games from the rest of a week’s schedule – and part is due to the breaking of a routine for a group of professional athletes – where old habits no longer apply. What, then, do we do when we discover new findings for a London game?
The Cardinals and Rams both won in Week 6, which goes against one of my most cited statistics – that is, the significant losing record for teams the week before traveling to London. It was only the second time since games have been played in London where both participants won their prior contest. But, that’s not the only oddity.
The Rams – now located in Los Angeles – will be playing basically on the opposite end of the globe when they travel to London. The eight-hour difference in time zone would normally be a major, hidden factor when assessing the game, but not for Week 7. Instead, the Rams left for London after a game in Jacksonville, Florida. Arizona was not so fortunate.
The Cardinals hosted the Buccaneers in Week 6 and, leaving from Arizona, actually have the more intense trip. And, amazingly enough, this will be the first of such a trip for the Cardinals, who had never previously played in London.
To date, the Rams