Well, that was ugly.
What are the odds, too? Right after I led last week’s article with praising the league and how consistently profitable it had been, we go out and deliver one of the worst weeks on record. It’s almost too coincidental.
Because it is too coincidental.
I write about the popular teams almost every week. I state how unlikely it is for any one entity to be profitable nearly 100 percent of the time. The reality is, this is true of all money-making endeavors, and my own picks are not immune to it. In fact, I specifically mentioned this toward the end of my podcast episode about the popular teams. It’s a natural regression that is unavoidable. Because, believe me, if we all could avoid it, we would.
It is, therefore, not a coincidence at all that the moment the success reached an unsustainable level, it was no longer sustained. But, there are two major takeaways from this outcome, and they both play well into our favor.
The first result of the losing week is the overall record, which remains well above the profitable line. As an added bonus, it is no longer too far above to continue bearing fruit, and we can consider last week a ‘pullback’ for the next leg of success.
The bigger conclusion to draw from last week is something I mention whenever we suffer widespread losses. That is, we are not alone in this dip. I only look into these numbers after a losing week – it wouldn’t make sense beforehand since they aren’t accurate until the results are in – but the industry, as a whole, suffered its largest losing week of the season.
And the industry does not lose over the longterm.
Remember that, when we have these crushing weeks that coincide with the industry suffering, not only do we get better bargains in the near future, but there is also a growing amount of false overconfidence from those who were on the winning side of this anomaly. The numbers then become even more appealing for us, as they can comfortably move in our favor. When that happens, the tide will also turn back in our direction.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2018 Season: 34-22-3 (Last Week: 2-4)
(2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (4-Year Total: 236-206-11)
All Picks Against Spread – 2018 Season: 69-57-8 (Last Week: 3-10)
(2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (4-Year Total: 552-486-30)
Listen to Episode 6 of our free podcast here:
Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers really are amazing. After starting the season with nothing but controversy over the handling of running back Le’Veon Bell’s contract situation, the team starts the first quarter of the season 1-2-1 with its only victory via a three-point margin against the now-3-5 Buccaneers. Since then, Pittsburgh has won four consecutive games by a combined score of 125-72, with no game decided by fewer than seven points. Pittsburgh is now 5-2-1 and alone atop the AFC North following back-to-back divisional victories.
To think, after all this, the Steelers