Much better.
I wrote about it. I talked about it. And now we can see the results of it.
After a horribly losing week, the only way to proceed is to continue along the same path as if nothing happened. Because it is the small weekly wins that will outweigh the losses, even if the losses are large. Consistency is profitable. Trying to catch the swing is not.
What makes last week amazing is that it followed a few key trends, but did so in wild form. Kansas City – the team I continue to use as the barometer for certain numbers – failed to cover its spread, but still won by double-digits. New England not only missed out on covering, but lost by 24 points. And Nick Mullens did not win back-to-back Primetime games to start his career.
If we wanted some proof that the games adhered to numbers in any sense, we can look at the landscape of spreads from the weekend. Out of thirteen matchups, depending on the source you use for your spreads, anywhere from six to eight of them were seven points or higher. Roughly half. But, even these numbers weren’t enough. Ten games were decided by more than seven points.
Naturally, Week 11 displays the opposite set of numbers. Only two of the thirteen games have spreads of seven points or higher.
This two-week stretch aligns with the schedule, as well. When projecting ahead, Week 11 was the one that held one great matchup after another and, by comparison, Week 10 was dull. Now, here we are. And, not only do we have some incredible head-to-head pairings, but we also have significantly fewer ‘popular’ teams to wreak havoc on the numbers. New England is on a bye. The Rams and Chiefs are playing against each other.
And we have plenty of games in which we can find value that others will likely ignore.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2018 Season: 36-27-3 (Last Week: 2-5)
(2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (4-Year Total: 236-206-11)
All Picks Against Spread – 2018 Season: 77-63-8 (Last Week: 8-6)
(2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (4-Year Total: 552-486-30)
Listen to Episode 6 of our free podcast here:
Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks
What a matchup. There will be no complaints from me about the pitiful teams we are forced to watch on Thursday Night Football as the Green Bay Packers travel west to face the Seattle Seahawks. In fairness, I was equally as excited about last week’s game between the Steelers and Panthers that quickly turned into a dud. But, there’s a reasonable explanation for such an outcome.
The Steelers and Panthers were both fighting a regression, last week. At least one was going to fall from its high perch and, when it did, it fell hard.
The Packers and Seahawks are not in a similar position. They are each clawing to stay alive in a crowded playoff race. And, a playoff race that might be decided by a head-to-head matchup. This head-to-head matchup.
Seattle is out of the NFC West fight. Not mathematically, but realistically. If it were to make the playoffs, it would only be via a Wild Card berth. Green Bay is much more alive in its divisional chase, but would have to hurdle two teams in the process. Thankfully for the Packers, they have quarterback Aaron Rodgers, so anything is possible.