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The first few weeks of any season tell us a lot about what to expect over the coming months. Certainly, things can chance, but we have little snippets of possible previews. The irony is that we argued against this sort of rapid reaction to the first week of the season. If we do the math, however, we can quickly start to take everything a bit more seriously.
One-eighth of each team’s season is now complete. Think about the insanity of that statement. We haven’t even seen Russell Wilson win a game yet. Or Ryan Fitzpatrick lose one. Or the Arizona Cardinals attempt an extra point. And yet, every team is more than ten percent into the new season.
This is one of the reasons why a team that starts with an 0-2 record is so statistically unlikely to make the playoffs. There just aren’t enough games to make up the ground. That, and an 0-2 squad is often a bad squad. Still, we are about to emerge from the opening drive of the game to see what each team has in its new position.
How do the 2-0 Miami Dolphins handle their sole possession of first place in the AFC East? Which of the 0-2 teams playing in Houston on Sunday will effectively see their season come to an end? And will anybody in the NFC North – a division I argued was one of the deepest in the league – try to grab control?
We will start to get some answers over the next few days, but not just because we will be three weeks into the season. This particular schedule of games heavily features matchups in which two worlds collide. Some are division battles of the utmost importance, while others affect our long-term plays of season win totals. But we also have plenty of regression competing with positive correction.
It is through these fascinating connections where we find the likelihood of each possible outcome. And how we can get a glimpse of the next few months before it arrives.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2018 Season: 7-7-1 (Last Week: 3-5)
(2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (4-Year Total: 236-206-11)
All Picks Against Spread – 2018 Season: 16-14-2 (Last Week: 8-7-1)
(2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (4-Year Total: 552-486-30)
New York Jets at Cleveland Browns
It’s storytime again!
Every New York Jets game will be a rather big deal in my circle of friends for the next few weeks. In the preseason, I had made the claim that the team could go 10-6 with Sam Darnold at the helm, and I will certainly face my share of criticism for it. As I continue to argue, however, the bold statement was not built from fandom, but an objective assessment of the team.
Naturally, I still had to defend myself. In doing so, I was presented with the Jets’ schedule and asked to prove how the team could get to ten wins.
Nobody likes to hear that the National Football League is a jumbled mess of outcomes in which one could approximate the big picture, but certainly fail on the small scale. A good example of this would be plotting out a team’s division record. On paper, the Jets should conceivably sweep the Bills, split with the Dolphins, and get swept by the Patriots. But, as we all have seen time-and-again, playing these games under the right or wrong circumstances could lead to a 4-2 or 2-4 record in a heartbeat.
I had to generalize. And, with the big topic of conversation centering around the Jets playing three games in ten days, I had to separate that trio from the rest. Thankfully, that was done easily enough.
“They’ll go 2-1 in their first three games,” I said.
Laughter followed. Some chorus of, “They might actually go 0-3” and “Maybe they’ll beat the Dolphins, but that’s it” was thrown back to me.
Now, it was my turn to laugh.
Using the same roller coaster we see constantly from teams that are neither great nor terrible, it was easy enough to craft the roadmap for the Jets. I was completely confident in the team beating the Lions on Opening Night which would, in turn, set up for a home loss to a Dolphins team that is severely overlooked and underrated. Then, because the Jets will have already experienced a high and a low, they would be able to win in Cleveland.
More laughter. Which, for the sake of my picks, is always an indication that I’m on the right track. Now, the general commentary was, “No way they’ll beat the Lions and Browns. Cleveland is a lot better than you realize.”
“You’ll see,” I said with a smile, and then I did my best to wait for those first ten days of the season to unfold without bursting from all the excitement.
And here we sit. Nearly ten days since the start of the season, with the Jets at 1-1 via a win against the Lions and a loss to the Dolphins. Of course, throughout the latter game in which New York was clearly ill-prepared for Miami, the text messages flooded my phone. The Twittersphere was in an uproar. And the entire nation of Jets fans who pumped out their collective chests after the first win shriveled into oblivion as the team was sent back to earth.
Why? This series of outcomes should not have surprised anyone. But, as always, the football world is reactionary instead of proactive. It waits until after the Jets split their first two games to determine that they aren’t as good as they looked in the win, nor as bad as they looked in the loss. And it waits until after the Browns almost beat the Steelers and Saints to conclude that Cleveland is dangerous.
We already knew this. At least, about the Jets. But, is it true that the Browns are, indeed, “dangerous?”
If we are strictly using the definition that points to the ability of a team to pull off a sneaky ‘upset,’ then yes, the Browns are “dangerous.” But, if we are asking if the Browns are a threat to make noise in the AFC, then the answer is a resounding “no.” This point was driven home by the recent news that Cleveland traded wide receiver Josh Gordon within the conference to the Patriots. Forget that the team probably got the most value in the deal it accepted. If it were truly ready to compete in the AFC, it would have moved Gordon elsewhere, as per the initial reports.
Cleveland’s defense has been the topic of most conversations regarding the Browns potential in 2018, but the team ranks 21st in yards allowed through two weeks, despite only allowing a combined 39 points. As always, this is a sign of negative regression. The Jets are not exactly ready to take advantage in this area, however, as New York is only 18th in yards gained. But, the big edge goes to the matchup of the Jets’ defense against the Browns’ offense. With exactly 327 yards of total offense in each of its first two weeks, Cleveland ranks 23rd in this category. New York has allowed the fifth-fewest yards in the league, and limited Miami to only 257 total yards in Week 2.
Thursday night’s matchup has been ten days in the making, and is the culmination of an underappreciated start to the season for a Jets team still on the rise. New York wins by six points and beats the spread.
Confidence Pick: New York Jets (+3)
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Individually, the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons are nothing short of maddening. Combined, we can add in the adjective of “frustrating.” But, at least we know that the two will be competitive when going head-to-head. Four-of-the-last-five meetings between the Saints and Falcons were decided by seven points or fewer.
Another commonality between Atlanta and New Orleans is that each has played at a level well below its perceived capabilities. Atlanta lost a sloppy game in Philadelphia on Opening Night in which it refused to score, despite the talent level of its offensive players. New Orleans played copycat for the better part of its home game against the Browns and, quite frankly, was fortunate to not be 0-2 by the end of the night. It would have been the Saints’ second home loss to start the season, as the first came from the resurgent Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
It’s no wonder that, given the uncertainty surrounding each squad, the spread for the game is the standard three points from the home team – although don’t be fooled; this is not a ‘rule’ as many like to argue, but a continued perception. It’s a sign that there are no hands to tip, nor tea leaves to be read.
Looking solely at the matchup, we see that the Saints – as has been the case for much of the last decade – have no defense. They have allowed the third-most points on the fourth-most yards in the league. And, even if we give credit to Tampa Bay for its sudden emergence, the combination of the Buccaneers and Browns would not normally lead to a team ranking so low defensively. Therefore, it is likely that the Saints’ struggles are organizational. But, can the Falcons take advantage?
It seems almost impossible to be asking this question after seeing what Atlanta’s offense could be. In 2015, it ranked first in points and second in yards, and it still has many of the same key players. And yet, in one of its better offensive games – last week, against Carolina – the Falcons still did not break 300 passing yards, nor did they find the endzone with superstar wide receiver Julio Jones.
Stepping outside the numbers, the problem that has most plagued Atlanta has been its inability to ‘close’ games. We saw it in the Super Bowl, two years ago, and we can point to remnants of this in last week’s win against the Panthers, in which the Falcons continued to allow Carolina back in the game. This is where the Saints excel, and it puts the pressure on the Falcons to be a better version of themselves than we have seen.
If we point back to the offense, however, we understand why this happens. The Falcons find success when they are outpacing opponents to a level that cannot be matched. When they slow down their production, they are beatable. The Saints – ranked fourth in passing yards – are the type of team to beat them.
New Orleans wins by a field goal and beats the spread.
Prediction: New Orleans Saints (+3)
San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs
As one who constantly loves to sell the hottest hand, I find a dilemma upon us. Statistically, Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes has to regress. His ten passing touchdowns in the first two weeks of the season is a new NFL record. It also puts him on pace for 80 touchdowns for the year. Eighty. You can laugh at loud at that number.
And that’s the point. What Mahomes has done in the first two games of the year is downright laughable. It’s impossible. And it is, of course, unsustainable. Can the Chiefs continue to win and can Mahomes continue to dominate? Certainly, but there is a scale, and it has tipped.
The issue is that Mahomes’ eventual regression clashes poorly with Jimmy Garoppolo’s search for balance. I continue to argue that his overrated status from last year has carried over into 2018, and we will see how damaging this can be in the coming weeks. But, in each of the first three weeks of the season, Garoppolo has either faced or will face a force more powerful than his own.
The 49ers opened their season against one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl, this year. This team also acquired one of the better quarterbacks in the league and had anticipation bursting at every corner. Garoppolo was the second story.
San Francisco then went home to host a Lions team that was thoroughly embarrassed on Opening Night. The beating Detroit received was debilitating, and it left many questioning if, after 60 short minutes of football, we have seen enough to pronounce the Lions ‘dead.’ Again, Garoppolo was the second story.
On Sunday, the 49ers will travel to Kansas City to face a Chiefs team that is playing at home for the first time, this year. Put another way, Kansas City is finally able to get a front-row seat for the unveiling of their newest superstar-in-the-making. And Garoppolo will be the second story.
If we follow the path of both the Chiefs and Garoppolo, it’s straightforward to determine that the Chiefs will improve to 3-0. Kansas City opened the scoring in both of its first two games and has not trailed at any point, this season. San Francisco took the opposite approach, falling behind both opponents in the first quarter of each of its two games. Even with regression likely for Kansas City, both squads are set up for the Chiefs to jump out to an early lead and eventually emerge victorious. But, both teams also have the same pattern for the latter portions of games.
San Francisco has scored an impressive 30 combined points in the second half of its first two games – and this number holds a bit more weight when we consider that one of the defenses against which it played was Minnesota’s in Minnesota.
Conveniently, the Chiefs have allowed 32 second-half points to opponents through the first two weeks. And it isn’t just about the points. On three separate occasions, the Chiefs have seen double-digit leads evaporate to become no more than five points. If we can accept that Kansas City’s offense is going to keep propelling the team forward, we also need to worry about the team’s defense holding it back. At least, against the spread.
Kansas City wins again, knocking off the 49ers by four points, but San Francisco beats the spread.
Prediction: San Francisco 49ers (+7)
Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins
The Oakland Raiders are nothing short of strange. Over the first two weeks, they held second-half leads against the Broncos and Rams – who are a combined 4-0 now – only to lose both. And, the second of the two losses was via a late field goal to put the Raiders behind for the first time, all game.
Regardless of the outcome, the Raiders have been highlighted often in this young season. The team opened the season on national television, and then was one of the few late afternoon games in Week 2. Perhaps the spotlight wasn’t pointed directly at Oakland, but they weren’t hidden, either.
The team that was hidden in the first two weeks is the Miami Dolphins, arguably the quietest 2-0 team in the league. Perhaps Miami is being overlooked because the football world has downplayed the potential of quarterback Ryan Tannehill for years. Or maybe it’s because the Dolphins share a division with the Patriots. Or that the first game of the season was delayed so much by lightning that it finished after the late afternoon games, despite a three-hour head start.
The other element of Miami being overlooked is that it might be the most well-coached team in the league. One of them, anyway. Adam Gase led his team to a 10-6 record and a Wild Card berth in his first season with the organization, and then lost Tannehill in the preseason of last year. Still, he managed to extract six wins from the team. Already 2-0, Gase continues to prove his worth.
Miami is not built to be flashy or put up gaudy numbers, but it has been outstanding against the run – and it faced two offenses that like to run the ball via a relatively talented committee. It is also tied for the league lead in defensive interceptions.
In the end, the Dolphins are the slow-burn, micromanaged team that finds the small edge in games. With Oakland unable to close, Miami will be ready to pounce.
The Dolphins win by a touchdown and cover the spread.
Confidence Pick: Miami Dolphins (-3)
Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings
Nothing gets me more uncomfortable than an unnaturally large spread. It’s either bait or confirmation. It’s a huge cushion or a laughable metric.
It’s something the underdog undoubtedly sees and uses for motivation.
It’s also an indication of an incredibly lopsided game. But, we know this.
We know the Minnesota Vikings are much better than the Buffalo Bills. Nearly seventeen points better? Of course. They’re probably closer to twenty points better. But, such a claim is irrelevant when we are strictly discussing one game in a vacuum. So, we need to find others like it.
Look back over the first few weeks of any season and you’ll find a handful of two-touchdown spreads. But, that’s usually the maximum number this early in a year. And it often happens in a division game. Every so often, we’ll see the rare spread of seventeen or so points, and that’s when we have to take notice.
The fact that two teams play in the same division should creep the spread down a few points from an otherwise astronomical number and, conversely, two teams from opposite conferences should get no such luxury. Whether the number is inflated or accurate, it certainly won’t be cut because of some sort of familiarity.
My own searchable records of spreads dates back to the start of 2011. Since then, only two games in the first four weeks of any season featured non-conference opponents with spreads of at least 14 points. These were the 2011 Seattle Seahawks in Week 2 and the 2013 Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 3.
Seattle lost its first game of 2011 by 16 points. When faced with a 14-point spread in Week 2, it lost by 24. Jacksonville followed a similar pattern – actually more closely related to that of this week’s Buffalo Bills – losing by 26 on Opening Day, then by ten points in Week 2, only to face a spread of 20 points and lose by 28.
Both massive favorites covered their respective spreads, and it is the first signal that we should lean toward Minnesota on Sunday, despite the number of points it will be giving. But, to close the book on why we can trust the Vikings, we should consider how the 2011 Seahawks and 2013 Jaguars lost.
The Pittsburgh Steelers and, oddly enough, the Seattle Seahawks were the two teams to destroy the Seahawks and Jaguars, respectively, in these years, and they both share an interesting trait. That is, the 2011 Steelers and 2013 Seahawks led the league in defense. Both ranked first overall in points and yards allowed.
Conveniently, the Minnesota Vikings were the league’s top-ranked defense in both points and yards allowed, last year.
The number of points needed for the Vikings to cover is simply astronomical, but it’s also to be used as protection against too many people piling on Minnesota. Historically, that’s all the number is – a scare tactic – as a non-conference opponent with a stellar defense is poised to make quick work of a punchless opponent.
The Vikings win by twenty and cover.
Prediction: Minnesota Vikings (-16.5)
Indianapolis Colts at Philadelphia Eagles
One of the reasons why I love writing my conference preview columns right before Opening Day is so that I can project ahead a few weeks into the season. It helps fight recency bias and news that might move the spread, but should not move a team’s outlook. The game between the Indianapolis Colts and Philadelphia Eagles is the perfect example of this playing out in full-force.
The Colts were always in position to be better than people expected. Quarterback Andrew Luck is healthy and, under that simple pretense, he is more-than-capable to win games with his arm. And when he did exactly that in a road game against the Redskins in Week 2, those who hadn’t bought into Luck and the Colts should have started to pay closer attention.
They didn’t. But, not because of Luck. Because of his opponent on Sunday.
Philadelphia’s Carson Wentz is reportedly starting his first game for the Eagles since December 10, 2017. The spread has ballooned as a result, and the bandwagon for the defending champions is squeezing in the last few people who want to board ‘before’ the Wentz era continues.
They’re making a mistake. Get off the bandwagon, now, before it goes down in flames.
We’ve seen it with Carson Palmer and Joe Flacco in the past, and we’re seeing it, right now, with Deshaun Watson. Quarterbacks who suffer knee injuries need time before they return to form. Not just time to recover – it won’t even be ten months from Wentz’s surgery when he steps back on the field – but time to play at a high level again. Currently, the only rebuttal I hear is the use of Adrian Peterson’s name, as the former superstar running back famously returned from a knee injury and hardly missed a beat. This doesn’t tell me that Wentz might follow the same path. It tells me that Peterson is the exception, while the rest of the quarterbacks listed are the rules.
Philadelphia suffers a hard dose of reality when Wentz battles the rust and health of his body against an undervalued Colts team on Sunday. Indianapolis wins by four points and beats the spread.
Confidence Pick: Indianapolis Colts (+7)
Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins
Forget picks and predictions for a moment. Let’s acknowledge that we are seeing greatness in the form of Aaron Rodgers. It’s always been the case, but it continues to get highlighted based on that fact that he is essentially playing on one knee. And, I frequently ‘sell’ quarterbacks who are returning from knee injuries. Rodgers is playing through one.
Now, we can bring the picks back into the equation. Because said equation has to include the acknowledgement of both Rodgers’ unbelievable first two games under his current condition and the injury, itself. Therefore, with Rodgers coming off another jaw-dropping performance – made more incredibly by the opponent he faced – and presumably more healthy than he was and in a more favorable matchup, shouldn’t the spread for Sunday’s game in Washington be larger?
It should. If Rodgers were truly healthy and a letdown unlikely.
Regardless of the numbers, Rodgers and the Packers were not expected to beat the Vikings, last week. It was to be a forgivable loss in which we praise Rodgers for his toughness and ability to work through the pain. Instead, he over-delivered. Which means he’s about to under-perform.
Aaron Rodgers is not healthy, and the more teams see of his revamped approach, the more likely they are to exploit it.
Washington played the lowly Arizona cardinals on Opening Day, so we need to take some numbers with a grain-of-salt. Still, the Redskins enter week 3 with a top-2 defense in terms of points and yards allowed. And, after suffering a tough home loss in Week 2, the gameplan will be significantly tighter against a conference opponent playing its first road game of the season.
Alex Smith connected on 33-of-his-46 pass attempts for 292 yards in Week 2, but the nine-point showing gives the impression that the Redskins’ offense has been scuffling. It’s the opposite, as a positive correction is in the works.
Washington wins by a touchdown and beats the spread.
Confidence Pick: Washington Redskins (+3)
Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers
Throughout the multiple phases of research that go into my preseason articles, I continued to land on one key trait for the Carolina Panthers. They are incredibly streaky. They have been since Ron Rivera took over as the team’s head coach.
The Panthers go on extended winning streaks and never slow down. They hit terrible skids from which they never recover. They are untouchable with a lead. They can’t come-from-behind. Whatever it is, at varying points throughout any timeframe necessary – based on the current trend – the Panthers are almost always locked in a pattern.
Right now, the Panthers are unbeatable at home.
Dating back to last season, Carolina has won six consecutive home games. Naturally, we need to lean toward the home Panthers on Sunday. But it is worth exploring to see if there are any other trends for this franchise so closely tied to them. And of course, I would not lead us into this tunnel unless there were greener pastures on the other side.
The Panthers were a perfect 4-0 against non-conference teams, last year, and have won five consecutive games against AFC opponents. Perhaps it’s the inability to gameplan against Cam Newton and his skills as both a runner and passer, but it’s clear that non-conference opponents have not solved the Panthers.
On Sunday, Carolina will play a non-conference team at home. Carrying the matchup one step further, this non-conference opponent just completed a critical division win at home on national television. A letdown is likely.
The Panthers keep both trends alive, beating the Bengals by a touchdown and covering the spread.
Prediction: Carolina Panthers (-2.5)
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Tennessee Titans had sneaky value, last week, and it led to an outright ‘upset’ over their division rivals from Houston. The setup was excellent. Quarterback Marcus Mariota was hurt, but was left active for the game. This gave enough uncertainty to create a nebulous atmosphere in which it was difficult to pinpoint every angle of the game. But, when the matchup was underway, Mariota did not take a single snap. And still the Titans won.
Tennessee pulling off the ‘upset’ of the visiting Texans was the sign of a solid gameplan in which the threat of Mariota playing was enough to attract attention. That, and the Houston Texans remain severely overrated.
Jacksonville is not. The Jaguars may cost an extra premium because of their impressive home win against the Patriots, but they are, indeed, as good a team as their numbers suggest. Then again, we can never pay a higher price without justification. So let’s find it.
If anyone had been fooled by the news of Mariota, last week, the same mistake won’t happen again on Sunday. The general assumption must be that Mariota is not playing and, if he is, this writeup might need an edit – but only if it’s certain that he will be the starting quarterback. This leaves us with Blaine Gabbert under center.
Gabbert’s numbers have never been pretty, but we can’t be too simple by taking them at face value. After all, he did just win a division game. Instead, we can point to the fact that Gabbert was formerly the starting quarterback for the Jaguars, and history has not been kind to those in his position. In fact, last year had a game that featured two quarterbacks against their former employers. The result? A 15-10 pillow-fight.
No team is more prepared to stop whatever Blaine Gabbert has to offer than Jacksonville, and it will result in a long afternoon for the Jaguars’ former quarterback. If news breaks that Mariota will, indeed, start the game, then we can revisit it. Otherwise, Jacksonville is poised to move to 3-0 on the year.
Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5)
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens
I continue to ask the same question and not receive a valid answer. “Why did the Denver Broncos give quarterback Case Keenum the keys to the franchise?”
Admittedly, nothing has statistically proven this decision to be the ‘wrong’ one, as the Broncos sit tied atop the AFC West with a 2-0 record and a division win under their belt. But, how a team wins is something we always take seriously.
The Broncos have not looked as dominant as their 2-0 record would suggest. The team knocked off the visiting Seahawks on Opening Day by only three points despite tallying six sacks. But, it’s worth nothing that Seattle has been sacked twelve times through two weeks. By comparison, 25 teams have been sacked six times or fewer, to date.
Denver then traveled to Oakland, and the more realistic version of the Broncos appeared. That is, the one that played 59 minutes and 50 seconds of game time without leading, only to finally emerge victorious with a late field goal. Granted, I often argue that nothing valuable can be taken from a division game, but that relates to the final outcome from Week 2. That Denver is now 2-0 is the story we should be doubting.
Baltimore had its own wild path to Sunday’s game, destroying the hapless Bills in Week 1, and then losing to the Bengals in a largely noncompetitive game on national television. Neither outcome was truly surprising, but it’s now Baltimore’s turn to right its ship. And, with three consecutive road games immediately following this week’s home contest, the Ravens cannot allow an overvalued Broncos team to make the last strike like it did against Oakland.
So they won’t. Baltimore puts Denver away early as the Ravens win by ten points and cover the spread.
Prediction: Baltimore Ravens (-5)
New York Giants at Houston Texans
One of the things I write about frequently is the changing of a spread due to any tangible event – be-it an injury, news, or recent game. We have one for the contest between the Giants and Texans, and it is not only violent, but eye-popping.
At the time of this writing, Houston is a six-point favorite against the Giants. That’s a big number. But what’s truly important is that the spread was only three-and-a-half before Sunday night’s game between the Giants and Cowboys.
A nationally-televised division matchup in which one team looked thoroughly overmatched has led to a move so strong in the spread that it nearly doubled.
We’ve seen this before. In fact, we see it all the time.
The Jets were slight underdogs to the Dolphins before New York obliterated the Lions on national television. New York then became the favorite, and lost. The original spread was correct. In that same shift, the Lions went from three-point underdogs against the 49ers to six-point underdogs. And what happened? The Lions lost by three points.
The Houston Texans were favored by three-and-a-half points, because Houston winning by approximately a field goal was the most likely outcome. Nothing has changed.
The Texans win by a field goal, but the Giants beat the spread.
Prediction: New York Giants (+6)
Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams
It always looks easy when a team has an outstanding offense. Such is the case for the Los Angeles Rams, who finished 2017 atop the league in scoring. They had a bit of a slow start to 2018, as they were held to just ten points through the first half of their Opening Night game, but have now combined for 66 points over the last six quarters. Again, easy.
There is just one small problem about the Rams’ continued offensive success: they haven’t faced a competitive team.
Indeed, the Raiders played well enough to be leading at halftime, but it’s the same Oakland team that carried another lead late into a home game against Denver and lost. And then the Rams hosted Arizona. The game was out-of-hand by the coin toss.
The Los Angeles Chargers enter Sunday after facing a punching bag of their own, but last week was the only game in which the Chargers could relax. If anything, they “relaxed” too much on Opening Day, as they were ill-equipped to handle the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. Los Angeles won’t make the same mistake again.
The Chargers have as dynamic an offense as any, and it should not come as a surprise if they were the Los Angeles team that led the league in scoring, this year. But, if we’re tempering expectations based solely on what we’ve seen, to date, we need to be fair and recognize that the Chargers lost to the Chiefs – at home – and then pulverized a terrible Bills squad. They haven’t proven capable of translating offensive potential to wins. Yet.
The Chargers possess an offense deep enough to keep pace with anybody, which immediately points to them beating the spread. In order to beat the Rams, however, the Chargers will need to prove that their current defense – ranked ninth in yards allowed – is about to positively correct from its eighth-worst ranking in points allowed. But, as noted in previous columns, the Rams’ formerly top-notch scoring offense is statistical likely to regress to the league average, and an increase in competition helps get it there.
The Chargers win a competitive, back-and-forth battle by a field goal and beat the large spread.
Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers (+7)
Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals
I write about a particular statistic every year and, with some of the pitiful offenses we have seen only midway through September, it looks like it will emerge many more times throughout the year. That is, a team that gets shutout is statistically likely to put forth a much better offensive effort the following week.
Of the last 22 teams to suffer this fate, the average number of points it scores in its next game is a cool 19.5. Not outstanding, but not to be overlooked. Those teams are also 11-11 following a shutout loss.
Will Arizona follow the trend as far as a win? Possibly, since Chicago’s rookie head coach just got the proverbial monkey off his back by securing his first career victory one week after a historically bad collapse. But, even if we can’t look for an outright victory, we can certainly expect some offense from the Cardinals.
How do we know this? The same way we know most of what we have solved about the National Football League. The spread.
The team that is traveling to Arizona to grab an easy win against a scuffling franchise just completed the aforementioned victory on national television. As a result, the Chicago Bears should be viewed favorably following said win. But, as the spread flashed temporarily, Chicago actually lost ground, despite the win.
The spread opened at four-and-a-half points, and then proceeded to move down to four. It has since jumped back up above its starting position, and it currently sits at six. This gives us both the edge we need in the story – the Cardinals are the sneaky play – and the cushion to go in with confidence – we have some wiggle-room with six points.
Chicago was one of the teams we were buying before the Khalil Mack acquisition, and nothing has given us a reason to doubt it. The Bears pull off the road win, but the numbers show that it won’t be via a blowout.
Chicago wins by a field goal, but Arizona beats the spread.
Confidence Pick: Arizona Cardinals (+6)
Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks
Before we go any further in completely burying the Seattle Seahawks, consider this: Seattle, known to have one of the best home field advantages in the sport, has not yet played a home game. Also, consider that the Dallas Cowboys just faced a division opponent that was incapable of moving the football or stopping the pass rush. Now, we can continue. And, we’ll do so by addressing the latter point.
Simply put, since Dallas was able to dominate the Giants’ offensive line, why wouldn’t it do the same to Seattle’s?
In short, it should. The Cowboys’ defense should make Seattle’s Russell Wilson need to move his feet. But, that’s where Wilson shines.
The difference between Wilson and New York’s Eli Manning is that Wilson eludes pressure as well as anybody over the past decade. He has to out of necessity, but he continues to produce, regardless. Despite being sacked a league-leading twelve times, Seattle has the fifth-most passing touchdowns.
On the other side of the ball, Seattle’s run defense is as tough as it gets. The team has not allowed a rushing touchdown in two weeks, despite facing talented running backs. Dallas’ Ezekiel Elliott is arguably the best of the group, but he is also the key to Dallas winning. In games Elliott started – including the playoffs – the Cowboys are a whopping 14-3 when he rushes for a touchdown, but a more human 6-5 when he doesn’t. Seattle may not have the impenetrable defense of years past, but it is built to stop the Cowboys, especially in its home opener with an 0-2 record.
Seattle wins by six points and covers the spread.
Confidence Pick: Seattle Seahawks (-1)
New England Patriots at Detroit Lions
One of the main themes of this week’s column has been the high number of opposing forces converging. It happens again on Sunday night, as the New England Patriots – coming off a loss – are traveling to Detroit to face an 0-2 Lions team. This is only the beginning.
One of the main storylines for Sunday night is one that will undoubtedly be highlighted constantly during the broadcast: Lions head coach Matt Patricia was with the New England Patriots’ organization since 2004 before receiving his most recent promotion. Immediately, we can argue that Patricia’s time as New England’s defensive coordinator gives him an edge against the Patriots’ offense, but we shouldn’t be so casual about it. After all, New England is usually in a class by itself.
After we get past the familiarity between one organization and the other’s coach, we can look at the almost infallible record of the Patriots after a loss. But, we have to look a long way back to find what we need. Three seasons, to be exact. Because the last time the Patriots lost back-to-back games was at the end of the 2015 season. Otherwise, they are a perfect 5-0 after losing a game.
To this point in our analysis, it appears as if the Patriots are, once again, going to rebound from a loss. But, once we add the spread into the discussion, we see that it breaks one of our rules. That is, we almost always take the underdog when it is getting at least seven points at home. There is a happy middle ground. We can pick the Patriots to win and the Lions to beat the spread, right?
Except, what have the Lions shown us to prove that they can compete with one of the league’s elite. They just lost to the 49ers in a game in which they trailed by as many as 17 points in the fourth quarter. And, before that, they were completely dismantled on national television at home. And therein lies our edge.
If we recall, last week’s column began with a confidence pick of the Cincinnati Bengals playing at home on Thursday Night Football. And the reasoning was simple: the Bengals were in the exact same position, one year prior, and put forth one of the most pitiful performances imaginable. They would not make the same mistake again.
The Detroit Lions are in the exact same position as they were in Week 1. Detroit is hosting an AFC East opponent on national television. It will not be embarrassed again.
The Patriots are simply too masterful at rebounding after a loss, and the trend continues on Sunday night. But, the Lions also have a quarterback who is coming off seven consecutive 4,000 yard campaigns and is more-than-capable of beating a Patriots defense ranked fifth-worst in yards allowed.
New England wins by a single point, but the Lions beat the spread.
Prediction: Detroit Lions (+7)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Despite being down on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a whole in 2018, we have found tremendous value in picking them against-the-spread in the early portion of the season. This is largely because it’s difficult for the football-watching world to fully buy into a Ryan Fitzpatrick-led offense.
That is, until Ryan Fitzpatrick leads the league in passing over the first two weeks of the season.
And beats the New Orleans Saints and Philadelphia Eagles.
And wears a ridiculous outfit to his postgame press conference.
Make no mistake, everything is in-play when it comes to finding any possible edge, and Fitzpatrick wearing DeSean Jackson’s clothes is worth noting. Why? Because everyone saw it. And, in the process, everyone is paying attention to what Fitzpatrick and the Buccaneers are doing.
So much so that the spread has moved away from the Pittsburgh Steelers – a franchise that has gone 45-19 over the last four seasons with a playoff appearance in each. Did the spread move because of Fitzpatrick’s apparel? No. But it does mean that people are taking notice of Tampa Bay. That, or they are giving up on the Steelers.
Neither is advised. The Buccaneers might have been cast aside as a “fluke” after their first win, but they are now a “threat.” Pittsburgh can ill-afford to sleepwalk through another game and come away 0-2-1 and give the Cincinnati Bengals at least a two-win lead in the division race.
Thankfully for Pittsburgh, the Buccaneers have allowed the second-most passing yards and fourth-most net-yards-per-pass-attempt in the league. The Steelers thrive through the air, currently ranked second in passing yards. More importantly, Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger turned the ball over six times in a sloppy Opening Day tie with the Browns. In better weather, the Steelers did not record a single giveaway.
Pittsburgh gets its first win of the season as Tampa Bay’s high-flying reign comes to an end. The Steelers win by four points and cover.
Confidence Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (-1)
Compiled List of Week 3 NFL Picks Against the Spread
For ease of use, we have compiled all of this week’s picks below. We still urge that you read the write-ups for each game, but here is an easy access list of our predictions for this week:
Confidence Picks: New York Jets, Miami Dolphins, Indianapolis Colts, Washington Redskins, Arizona Cardinals, Seattle Seahawks, Pittsburgh Steelers
All Other ATS Picks: New Orleans Saints, San Francisco 49ers, Carolina Panthers, Minnesota Vikings, Jacksonville Jaguars, Baltimore Ravens, New York Giants, Los Angeles Chargers, Detroit Lions
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