We’re playing the long game.
Week 3 was outstanding. Not only did we go 11-5 against-the-spread, but hit every confidence pick except one – and that was already behind us by Friday morning. It was beautiful. It was comforting.
It was misleading.
At the end of the day, I am fully aware that my win-loss record is the factor that most correlates to the growth or dissipation of my readership. It’s the nature of the business. I am, however, grateful for those who have seen the worst that this column could offer and still stayed-the-course – and were rewarded with another winning season, last year. Those readers will always have my heart.
With all this being said, an 11-5 week is nothing more than a nice cushion. It is not a new trend that could be established, nor is it sustainable – if anyone were to pick games correctly at a rate of 68 percent for years, it would be headline news throughout the industry.
It also carried a bit of luck. We know that we can’t control the outcomes of games, nor can we be exactly perfect even when the situation is. Sometimes, despite the numbers and matchups and factors that go into a pick, a random defender will decide that, instead of sealing the win by securing an interception and going to the ground, it is more fun to return it for a touchdown. And then we lose. Even though, in every context besides the final score, we didn’t.
We had the opposite outcome in Week 3. Quite literally, a defender did return a meaningless interception for a touchdown – Chicago against Arizona – but the play was negated because of a penalty. We had some luck. And it was nice.
Remember that, for every time I argue about a bad break not truly determining our losses, we also can’t grow over-confident from our successes.
Which is where we find ourselves entering Week 4.
The 11-5 week is exhilarating, and we can use this momentum for good, despite my cautions otherwise. Because, at the end of the day, when we look back at what transpired in Week 3, we know that we expected much of it to happen. That – and only that – is what we should take away from the winning week.
Forget the record. But remember what we knew should happen.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2018 Season: 13-8-1 (Last Week: 6-1)
(2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (4-Year Total: 236-206-11)
All Picks Against Spread – 2018 Season: 27-19-2 (Last Week: 11-5)
(2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (4-Year Total: 552-486-30)
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams
We want answers. It’s only natural. We see something that appears misaligned and we question it.
How did the Minnesota Vikings lose to the Buffalo Bills? Really, how?
As always, there are multiple factors at play when trying to assess a result. One such factor could be the unknown of Buffalo’s quarterback, Josh Allen. He may not be as good as he looked in Week 3, but it’s possible that few even knew he was capable of such an outing. Or perhaps Minnesota lost because quarterback Kirk Cousins had a career record of 27-30-2 prior to Week 3 and he rarely deviates from this average.
Or the Vikings could have simply overlooked the Bills.
“Why?” You ask. “How? These are professionals, after all.”
Indeed, these athletes are “professionals” in the sense that, as the best in the world at what they do, they get paid money to work in this industry. This does not alleviate their human emotions.
Buffalo was a bad football team before Minnesota hosted it, and it will be a bad football team in the weeks to follow. The Vikings were unable to get past this and compete at a level that represents this disparity in talent. Because the most likely answer as to why Minnesota fell asleep at the wheel is