The 2018 NFL season continues to deliver. And it’s not because of the recent stretch of wins.
I will often write about the “current wave” of a given season, where underdogs or favorites might be in the middle of a hot streak. We are always careful to not ride these waves for too long, as they will eventually subside. As a result, when we find a particular trend becoming too reliable, we exercise caution. Like we did last week following a 6-1 record in confidence picks.
We then hit on five-of-our-seven confidence picks in Week 5.
Again, the record is not what’s important, right now. The wins and losses will happen, but the read of the games is what cannot change. Right now, the story being told continues to cost those who will not listen.
We know better.
We look for ‘traps.’ And, if we aren’t combing the ground for them, we still acknowledge that we cannot run briskly over the land.
This is particularly important to note in Week 5.
With how well underdogs have been performing against-the-spread, I entered my research phase with the slight expectation that we would need to lean on favorites in the coming days. Everything balances out, and this is no exception.
As I noted the spreads for some key games, another trend began to appear. It’s one we love, because, as I just stated, it is designed to catch those who are not careful.
Week 5 features the highest number of ‘traps’ we have seen, to date. And, if we recall how many times my introductions have stated something similar in the past, we know that it is rather late in the year for this to be the first push for a major wipeout. But, that’s exactly the point. I was wrong to assume this trend would slow down when, in fact, it is just gaining steam.
This season has already been moving nicely to capture those who aren’t paying attention, but it is about to take a more drastic sweep of the land.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2018 Season: 18-10-1 (Last Week: 5-2)
(2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (4-Year Total: 236-206-11)
All Picks Against Spread – 2018 Season: 34-25-4 (Last Week: 7-6-2)
(2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (4-Year Total: 552-486-30)
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
That didn’t take long.
The New England Patriots entered Week 4 with the stakes at an unnaturally high level. Had they lost, they would have fallen three games behind the Dolphins in the AFC East. New England is not the type of team to take something like this lightly, and it promptly demolished the Dolphins. Was it a message? Probably. And it was heard loud-and-clear. To the tune of a double-digit spread in its next game.
Granted, New England is playing at home in Primetime, and this is a setup in which the team has excelled in the past. The numbers are laughable, actually, where the Patriots are an unconscionable 18-4 in regular season night games at Foxborough since the start of 2017.
The mountain is tall for the Indianapolis Colts. The 1-3 Colts, that is.
Undoubtedly, the manner in which Indianapolis lost in Week 4 has drawn criticism, mainly in the fact that the Colts could have guaranteed themselves a tie instead. In truth, I agree with how the Colts approached their final offensive play in overtime. It backfired in execution, but it was both an aggressive play with potentially massive gains and a message. And, if we heard what the Patriots had to say via their big win, we should keep our ears open to what the Colts are saying in their gamble.