My goal is to prove myself wrong.
I’ve now said it in multiple conversations, and I write it every so often when it applies. When I can find a way to convince myself that my own pick is going to lose, I can put myself – and my readers – in a position to win. And that’s exactly what happened in Week 5.
I noted in last week’s introduction that I was looking for the tide to shift and the gains made by underdogs to recede. But, by the time I finished the column, it was clear that we still had another week to make progress. And we did.
The ‘traps’ were out in full effect, last week, and it was beautiful to watch from the sidelines as bait continued to be devoured. But, as famously stated by Sir Isaac Newton, with every action, an opposite reaction is present.
For every push forward, there is another one waiting to drive it backward.
It’s finally here. Through fifteen games and their writeups, I used the word ‘trap’ to describe a matchup only once. And there are certainly opportunities for ‘traps,’ they just aren’t present.
Of the fifteen games, eleven have spreads of three-and-a-half points or fewer, while the other four are all at or above seven points.
There is nothing in the middle.
This is both in comparison and contrast to the league standings. Only two teams in each conference have four or more wins, while only six teams throughout the league have four losses. This is not necessarily uncommon for Week 6, but it does to speak to the approaching tipping point and universally small spreads.
With that, as much as we have greatly enjoyed the first wave to hit the 2018 season, we are aware that a change is coming.
And we are ready for it.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2018 Season: 23-12-1 (Last Week: 5-2)
(2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (4-Year Total: 236-206-11)
All Picks Against Spread – 2018 Season: 44-29-5 (Last Week: 10-4-1)
(2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (4-Year Total: 552-486-30)
Listen to Episode 2 of our free podcast here:
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
The NFC East was not built to be a powerhouse, but what we have seen so far from the division is downright unacceptable. There is not a single team with a winning record, including the defending Super Bowl Champions. Currently, the leader of the group sits at 2-2, and is only thrust into first place because it has played – and, thus, lost – fewer games than its competitors.
With how tightly bundled all four members of the NFC East are entering Week 6, the Thursday Night Football game between the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants has uncharacteristically large early season ramifications. The winner gains a nice edge – at least, if it is Philadelphia considering this is its first division game – but the bigger key is not to lose. This is obviously over-simplifying the task-at-hand but, for a team like the Giants, to still be able to make up ground despite a 1-4 start to the season means that every single game might represent the end of a playoff campaign.
Dramatic? Certainly. But, in a 16-game season, it’s not off-base. Because time is already running out on New York.