As much as I truly love writing my weekly picks column, diving into the season-long predictions for the entire league has become something I actively anticipate as the summer months arrive. This might be because the success rate has been so high with the picks over the past two years – 12-4 combined . Or simply because it helps me get excited for the next season of football.
The entire set of picks – all fourteen of them – is available to registered members of Sporfolio, but please enjoy some full season predictions, with top over/under win-total plays highlighted where applicable:
Buffalo Bills – 6-10, 3rd in AFC East – Under 7.5 Wins
One of my favorite trends to follow is the universal use of the term “rebuilding.” And, it’s not because it’s flawed – it often isn’t – but because it is almost always used at the wrong time. Too often, a team is hit with the “rebuilding” tag because analysts believe that’s the current plan. Then, when said analysts believe the “rebuild” is over, they declare that “now is the time.”
But, do you see which word I used to indicate the analysts’ positions? “Believe.” It’s an opinion.
And it’s usually wrong.
Last year, the Seahawks were “rebuilding.” No, they weren’t. They were a playoff team. Again.
Now, everywhere I look, I hear about the Bills being “ready.” “The rebuild is over.”
I’m not so sure. My stance on a rebuild is that, when the right pieces are in-place, we can declare the rebuild “over.” I don’t mind making this claim before the action unfolds on the field – I do it all the time – but I do take exception when I see it applied to players who haven’t shown enough for me to, ironically enough, believe.
Buffalo’s Josh Allen is the player who most concerns me with the “Buffalo is now ready” argument. I don’t see it. In his first season, he threw more interceptions – twelve – than touchdown passes – ten – and led his team to more than 24 points only twice in his eleven starts. In fact, with the exception of the Week 17 dismantling of the Dolphins, Buffalo averaged just 16.3 points-per-game in Allen’s starts. Over a full season, that would have landed the Bills as the third-worst offense in the league. Which is exactly what they were.
I’ll be ‘selling’ the Bills in a division that may have the punching bag Dolphins, but both the Patriots and, now, Jets to prevent Buffalo from thriving.
Baltimore Ravens – 6-10, 3rd in AFC North – Under 8.5 Wins
There’s an incredibly obvious trend to my picks that can be followed from one season to the next. That is, if I don’t buy into a quarterback, but the general football world does, I’m almost always going to ‘sell’ that team. Think of last year’s 49ers with Jimmy Garoppolo or the Broncos of a few years ago with Brock Osweiler – don’t forget, people loved what he did as a backup – or even Matt Cassel of days long gone after he filled in for an injured Tom Brady. It’s an easy formula, and it gets repeated constantly. Lamar Jackson is the newest to get such treatment.
Jackson already has a major negative in my book simply by being a run-first quarterback. I don’t care about the success rate of this approach in a given game, because the reality is that any player who runs a lot is at greater risk for injury. If running backs – who have trained for contact since childhood – can’t extend their careers, why should we trust quarterbacks to do the same? Andrew Luck just retired before his 30th birthday because of the amount of hits he endured. And he was a quarterback who could run, tallying at least 60 rush attempts in four different seasons. Jackson had 119 in his seven starts.
Most importantly, the Baltimore Ravens under Lamar Jackson were able to use the element of surprise to propel them into the playoffs. But, when the competition increased and the season was on-the-line for an opponent, Jackson was completely stymied in the Wild Card Round. He led his offense to the fewest points the team scored since he was named the starting quarterback – 17 – fumbled three times, threw an interception, and the Ravens totaled just three points for 50 minutes of gametime before adding two meaningless touchdowns at the end.
Baltimore doesn’t have a choice in the matter. It has to stick with Jackson for the 2019 season – at least, the start of it. But, it will be a problem in this pass-first league. I’ll be looking to ‘sell’ the Ravens, this year.
Kansas City Chiefs – 10-6, 2nd in AFC West, Wild Card Berth
Before we go any farther with the writeup on the Kansas City Chiefs, I want you to do us both a favor. Without peeking, try to guess what the over-under win total should be for a Chiefs team that went 12-4, last year, losing three games by a field goal or less, and all four by no more than seven points. Get a number in your head.
I’d have to imagine said number is at least 11. Maybe 11.5.
In real life – at least, before Andrew Luck’s retirement – the over-under win total for the Chiefs was 10.5.
Ten-and-a-half-games.
My strength is in reading the lines like a narrative. But I certainly don’t make the lines.
I would have made the wrong line. In fact, it is taking everything in my power to not give the Chiefs more than ten wins. There is no reason why they shouldn’t get to eleven. And yet, the number is total bait. It’s asking us to dive in without any worry of failure. So, let’s look at how the Chiefs can fail.
In the early portion of last season, I started to argue that Patrick Mahomes’ passing touchdown rate was completely unsustainable. At one point, it slowed. It had to. We need to carry this over into 2019. 50 touchdowns is simply unreasonable to expect for a second consecutive year.
We also have to consider how teams can gameplan to slow down Mahomes. It was blatantly obvious numerous times, last year, that defenders couldn’t believe how far Mahomes could throw the ball. Defensive backs cheated up – as they tend to do when a quarterback is under pressure or on-the-run – and Mahomes out-threw them. With an offseason to prevent these mistakes, the element of surprise – and disbelief in Mahomes’ ability – is now removed.
Kansas City was also an extreme liability on defense, and it led to problems in the waning weeks of the season and, ultimately, the playoffs. Prior to a Week 17 thrashing the Chiefs handed to the Raiders, Kansas City was 2-3 from Weeks 11 through 16, and did not win either game by more than a touchdown. Thee Chiefs allowed 35.6 points-per-game in that span. In the first ten weeks, Kansas City had six wins by at least ten points. It allowed 24 points-per-game in that timeframe.
The reality is that the defense didn’t get worse, nor did this become the reason why the Chiefs slowed down their ridiculous pace. It is just an indication that, through the great positives the team had, there were also some negatives. Over the offseason, opponents were undoubtedly finding ways to exploit the weaknesses.
It would shock me if the Chiefs fell to the point where they miss the playoffs, but I am siding with the over-under win total here and expecting a regression that makes 2019 a bumpier road than we saw in 2018.
Chicago Bears – 8-8, 3rd in NFC North – Under 9.5 Wins
Scrolling through my projected standings, I smiled when I reached the Chicago Bears. The same way I smiled when I reached the Colts – before Luck’s retirement – or last year’s Eagles. It was a ‘thanks for the memories’ smile.
It was also a ‘you are no longer needed’ smile.
One of my favorite season-long picks to make is switching sides after a pick has been successful. This is because of the always-important perception that drives a pick. Last year, the Chicago Bears’ win total sat below .500. I loved the Bears before the Khalil Mack addition – and I actually worried that the trade would bump up their number or weaken the odds – and expected a big year from Chicago. This was ‘contrarian.’ What happened? We got a big year from Chicago.
Now, those who missed the boat are looking to pile on before it leaves. Too late. It’s out-to-sea. If you want to benefit from the Bears, you will have to pay a premium.
Only, we don’t. We were in on Chicago before it was expensive. Call it a ‘ground-floor investment.’ Which means that we’ve had our success. Thanks for the memories. You are no longer needed.
‘Selling’ the Bears in 2019 isn’t solely due to how well we did with them, last year. It’s also part of regression for a team that hadn’t enjoyed a winning season since 2012, then popped from five wins to twelve on the heels of a new head coach. And it’s the fact that Chicago ranked ninth-best in point-per-game, but only 21st in yards. And it’s that the team’s new projected win total isn’t even in double-digits.
Chicago may have a bright future – I’m a fan of Mitchell Trubisky in the long-term – but it needs to take a step back and breath after a frantic push in 2018. We will ‘sell’ at the peak and see if it’s worth buying back in at the dip, next year.
Los Angeles Rams – 9-7, 2nd in NFC West
I feel like the Los Angeles Rams are the most dangerous team to predict in either direction. This is because we have seen both a cause for concern and reason to believe that they are Super Bowl-bound.
During the regular season, last year’s Rams were virtually unstoppable. Los Angeles sported the second-best offense in the league in both yards and points, and the third-best in efficiency running and passing the ball. But, their postseason left something to be desired. The Rams tallied a pitiful three points in the Super Bowl, and arguably lost the NFC Championship Game if not for a missed pass interference call. The latter is not to discount what Los Angeles accomplished, but it is to highlight that, after scoring at least 23 points in regulation 15 times in 16 regular season games, the Rams needed a missed call to get to that mark in the team’s most important game, only to not reach the end zone in an even bigger game with two weeks to prepare.
Granted, Los Angeles won’t have to play the NFC Championship Game or Super Bowl in the regular season, and that’s what makes the team so “dangerous to predict.” I’m leaning on the Super Bowl loss to force the Rams down a few pegs, even if they stay afloat. The last five teams to lose the Super Bowl all had their win totals decrease the following year.
Seattle Seahawks – 11-5, NFC West Winner – Over 8.5 Wins
Let’s start off with the number, because it’s where my focus always goes. In order to win, we need the Seattle Seahawks to have a winning record. Period. In last year’s prediction article, I pointed out that quarterback Russell Wilson has never failed to deliver a winning season. On that merit alone, we have our pick. Wilson remains arguably the most underrated truly great quarterback in the league, and the longer we can extract value from this phenomenon, the better.
On-the-field, the team around Wilson is still somewhat of a concern – especially compared to the Super Bowl champions of years ago – but head coach Pete Carroll deserves as much credit as I have given Wilson for the team’s success. Seattle appears to be more of a ‘scheme-based’ team with an elite quarterback than a collective group of talent capable of rising-and-falling on a weekly basis. This is probably where it gets its consistency in the standings.
The Seahawks will obviously need to compete with the Rams in their division, but the diminished Cardinals and 49ers help offset whatever Los Angeles can do to limit Seattle. And, the Rams’ step backwards helps the Seahawks slide to the forefront in the NFC West.