I keep mentioning the shift of a few weeks ago, and it’s because we are still moving alongside it.
The shift, in this case, was in value. We had massive disconnects between the spreads and actual outcomes in the first four or five weeks of the season – think back to Opening Day when the Ravens covered by more than 40 points or the Colts winning outright in Week 5 as double-digit underdogs. Now, we’re seeing games like the one between the Steelers and Colts, where the spread bounces between one point and one-and-a-half-points in either direction, only to be settled by a field goal – where Pittsburgh won by two points.
The message here is that those who make the odds are starting to drill down on the right spread time-and-again. The edge we had against the numbers has dwindled.
But, we still have the edge if we follow the spreads. Which we always do.
When you read through this week’s column, take note of the ‘surprising favorites’ or the ‘small underdogs.’ These are plays we target on a weekly basis. Then, look at the other games. Notice how bland they appear. Like the Ravens giving ten points to the Bengals. Of course, the Ravens are giving ten points to the Bengals.
We need to be ready for a week of picks that is eerily close to the respective spreads. We’ve now seen it in back-to-back weeks, and it’s unlikely to change for the time being.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2019 Season: 30-26-2 (Last Week: 2-4-1)
(2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (5-Year Total: 299-254-15)
All Picks Against Spread – 2019 Season: 68-65-2 (Last Week: 7-6-1)
(2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (5-Year Total: 689-604-42)
Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders
We have been waiting for a large portion of the season. Waiting for the Los Angeles Chargers to make their move up the standings. Waiting for the Oakland Raiders to plummet.
And here we are, with the two teams sitting basically at an .500. No movement. No plummet. Half the season gone, and now it looks like it might begin.
For the Chargers, what can we make of the last two wins? Should we be inspired because the level of competition increased from the Bears to the Packers and Los Angeles still won? Or should we remain unimpressed because, after all this, the Chargers are still only 4-5?
Regardless of the answer, there is no doubt