I take my time with Week 17. It is the only week of the regular season where we need news in order to draw conclusions, as well as the only time I will even consider making a late swap with one of my picks.
Before we dive into anything, it’s best to frame Week 17 in the right mindset. That is, we should not expect teams to cover the spread simply because they have to win the game. Period.
Many franchises are in win-and-get-in situations, but the reality is that teams want to win whether it’s Week 17 or Week 7 — obviously, with the exception of those trying to secure a top Draft pick. Do not fall into the trap of “this team will cover because of the clinching scenario.”
I purposely used the word “cover” because we will likely see a large majority of teams still win their game when they must do so in order to keep their seasons alive. Still, even that carries some danger. We should not be surprised if — probably “when” — a non-playoff team pulls off a division ‘upset’ and knocks a playoff-hopeful out of the postseason picture. It happens quite often.
We know Week 17 is different from the rest. As long as we approach it with the possible set of ‘real’ outcomes where almost anything could happen, we can carefully weave our way through it.
Note from Mario: I am using all spreads as of Thursday afternoon, and I will not change a spread afterwards — ever — unless I actually change the pick. That’s really only a possibility in Week 17, in which case I would update the article and highlight what changed. Otherwise, it’s business as usual!
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2020 Season: 46-40-3 (Last Week: 3-3)
(2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (6-Year Total: 356-297-18)
All Picks Against Spread – 2020 Season: 118-116-6 (Last Week: 8-7-1)
(2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (6-Year Total: 831-722-49)
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
The AFC East has not failed to disappoint in 2020, as we have had legitimate storylines from top-to-bottom. In Week 17, said storyline sits at the top.
The Buffalo Bills enter the week already having clinched the division, while the Miami Dolphins are now in the driver’s seat for a Wild Card berth. All Miami has to do is win in Buffalo. Not easy.
But, it’s not “not easy” because of the competition. It’s “not easy” because of the situation in which the Dolphins find themselves. Stick with me. I’ll get there.