We have to give credit where it’s due. In a year with nothing but uncertainty, those who make the spreads have been incredibly accurate.
I don’t necessarily mind it. While I often hear that the goal is to “beat Vegas,” that simply isn’t true.
The goal is to beat the number. Period. And the number isn’t set for Vegas to be right. It’s set for others to be wrong.
The goal, therefore, is to “beat others.”
Still, these past two weeks have been thoroughly impressive in terms of the odds. Let’s look at some examples using the odds as per my column from just Week 2:
Cleveland Browns -6, won by 5.
Bears -5.5, won by 4.
Bills -5.5, won by 3.
Steelers -7.5, won by 5.
Seahawks -4, won by 5.
Those are five games that finished within two-and-a-half points of the spread, and not a single one was decided by a last-minute field goal. All five had other scoring events throughout the entirety of the game that still ended right around the spread’s number.
This is, in an honest moment, truly impressive.
It’s also tricky to navigate.
When picking games against the spread, the goal is simply to be in the best position to win as possible. Usually, we can rely on the numbers telling a story that’s hidden beneath the surface. But, as we just saw in eye-popping fashion, the story isn’t hidden.
More specifically, those who make the odds aren’t necessarily taking chances. Despite the slim margin in the aforementioned games, there was plenty of wiggle room in others. The 49ers, Ravens, Colts, and even Cardinals could have been larger favorites and still covered their spreads.
We might start to see the numbers grow in the coming weeks, but the key is to recognize why they are changing. Normally, it’s because an opportunity presented itself as the week progressed. With nothing about this season being “normal,” we can break away from our habits and simply not look too deep.
Those who make the odds aren’t taking chances. Neither should we.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. An asterisk denotes a confidence pick.
*Confidence Picks – 2020 Season: 9-4 (Last Week: 3-3)
(2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (6-Year Total: 356-297-18)
All Picks Against Spread – 2020 Season: 16-16 (Last Week: 6-10)
(2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (6-Year Total: 831-722-49)
Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars
We’ve seen this play out in the past. A nondescript, relatively “boring” Thursday Night Football game is on the schedule, and it turns into must-watch television.
Maybe it won’t happen. Maybe the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Miami Dolphins will turn into a pillow-fight.
Or maybe we’ll see the future of the Dolphins make a surprise appearance.
It’s silly to rely on one specific possibility as the driving force of a pick, so I won’t. There are other factors at play. But it would also be irresponsible to ignore what could happen. The job is to identify all angles that lead to all outcomes.
Tua Tagovailoa making his debut in the middle of the game is one angle to a Dolphins win.
If we’re playing the odds, it’s unlikely we see Tagovailoa on Thursday night. But, it isn’t impossible. It’s exactly what happened two years ago when the Browns and Jets were playing on a Thursday in Week 3. Tyrod Taylor started for Cleveland, and Baker Mayfield took over to begin his National Football League career. Granted, there was an injury to Taylor that led to the move, but the point is that the winless Browns knew they had their quarterback and were simply biding time for him.
The winless Dolphins know they have their quarterback and are simply biding time for him.
Again, Tagovailoa making an appearance is not the main source of support for Miami, but it is the sneaky explanation for why the spread is so small. Keep in mind that Jacksonville beat a solid Colts team on Opening Day and then played the Titans to within three points in Week 2. The Jaguars are not rolling over and dying like many — myself included — expected. With that — and with the Dolphins looking lifeless on Opening Day — the spread should be much larger. It isn’t, and we’re keen to it.
Miami wins by six points and beats the spread, with-or-without Tagovailoa stepping on the field.
Confidence Pick: Miami Dolphins (+3)
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
We have to seriously consider if something is inherently wrong with the Atlanta Falcons. The team simply doesn’t know how to win games. And it definitely doesn’t know how to close out games.
There’s a difference.
Winning involves scoring more points than the other team. Sometimes, this is easy. Sometimes, the other team can’t keep pace and slowly withers away on its own.
Other times, the team fights back. This is where “closing out games” takes priority. It means that a squad not only has to score more points than the other team, but make the plays necessary to keep it that way.
A regular season loss to the Cowboys is not a cause for concern, in itself. But, the entire football-watching world knows that the Atlanta Falcons famously crumbled in the Super Bowl. What’s worse, they know that the same head coach was in charge for both the Super Bowl collapse and what we saw in Week 2 of this year.
Where do the Falcons go from here? Where is the ability to remain mentally tough? It can’t be present, otherwise the disaster against the Cowboys wouldn’t have happened.
We need to remember this because