That was a nice way to start the playoffs! Only one game went against us, and one other was even close to the spread. That’s the way it should be, and it was refreshing to see the results come from the read of the numbers as opposed to being protection against them.
It’s important to remember that as we head into the Divisional Round. This particular set of games offers plenty of value and, if it’s anything like last week, then it will give us a great opportunity to take advantage. If, however, it reverts back to what we saw from the regular season, then we need to be careful. My approach is to not overlook the value on Saturday and Sunday but simply be aware of how fickle this year has been.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or PointsBet. All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2023 Season: 61-61-4 (Last Week: 3-0)
(2022 Season: 54-54-5) (2021 Season: 55-50) (2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (9-Year Total: 518-443-26)
All Picks Against Spread – 2023 Season: 137-133-8 (Last Week: 5-1)
(2022 Season: 143-132-9) (2021 Season: 158-126-2) (2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (9-Year Total: 1264-1108-67)
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens
Last week, I specifically wrote that it was simply more fun to root for rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans compared to veteran Joe Flacco and the Browns. Not only did that prove to be true, but we saw exactly why it was easy to support Houston.
There is no ceiling for the team.
Of course, there is a risk of relying on a rookie quarterback as the Texans move deeper into the playoffs, and that’s because they will eventually run into a group of veterans that is battle-tested and thoroughly prepared.
Like the Baltimore Ravens.