NFL Picks: 2025 AFC Full Season Predictions

One of the biggest reasons why I love this preseason prediction articles is because it forces me to think in the mindset of turnover. The National Football League is designed for widespread reversals within divisions, and we see it on an annual basis.

I lead with this because it’s too simple to find the teams that played well last year, didn’t lose talent or key coaches, and then slot them into the playoffs this time. Occasionally, I do it — because there’s just no way around certain expectations — but the reality is that we know some teams will fail and some will surprise.

And that’s a good thing.

Not because it makes the league fun — which it does. But because it forces us to think differently.

We can’t lean on last year too heavily. But we know others will. And, as always, that’s where we look to find an edge between now and the end of the regular season.

Below are the full season predictions for the 2025 American Football Conference, with top over/under win-total plays highlighted where applicable. Over/under win-totals were taken as advertised from DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and Caesers Sportsbook. In the event that different win totals were shown across the Sportsbook by a half-game, the win total up to -160 was used. In the past, -140 was the limit, but Sportsbooks have since adjusted their numbers.

AFC East

Miami Dolphins – 4-13 – 4th in AFC East – UNDER 7.5 Wins (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

It wasn’t long ago that the Miami Dolphins were one of the most promising teams in the league with dynamic weapons on offense and a head coach that was beloved by the sports media because of his outgoing personality. Now three years into this most recent reign, the overall record has been decent at 28-23 but a comparative disappointment. Injuries have clearly been the biggest contributing factor, but that doesn’t seem likely to improve, especially since many sources have the Dolphins’ offensive line ranked toward the bottom of the league. Ultimately, this might be the beginning of the end for Miami’s current regime.

New York Jets – 5-12 – 3rd in AFC East

I should have known better last year. The hype for the New York Jets was extreme, but the numbers were a bit cautious. There was legitimate concern that the team would struggle. And struggle it did. So much so that New York ended up failing spectacularly in every single way possible — from bringing in veteran players midseason to firing its head coach. The expectation for the Jets is that they will now reset. Again. But, they also don’t appear to be rushing anything. The season-long over-under agrees and is on the tempered side of the equation yet again. I won’t be fooled here. The Jets should remain toward the basement of the league.

Buffalo Bills – 10-7 – 2nd in AFC East, Wild Card Berth

I remember struggling with the Buffalo Bills last year because they were the default choice to make the playoffs from the AFC East. Even if I didn’t select them as the outright winner of the division, there appeared to be no way around a Wild Card berth. By season’s end, there was no doubt that they were the best team in the division both because of how weak the other teams were and its own ability to fight regression. Therein lies the reasoning behind this year’s prediction. Once again, it’s hard — basically impossible — to keep them out of the playoffs, but the Bills ranked worse in yards-per-game offensively and defensively than in points-per-game. They have also won 13 games under current head coach Sean McDermott two other times prior to last season. Both times, Buffalo failed to match their total but still finished with an impressive 11 wins.

New England Patriots – 11-6 – AFC East Winner – OVER 7.5 Wins (-150 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

It is with a deep breath that I type out this pick, mainly because it follows some extreme optimism from the football-watching world. I don’t love that. But I do love New England Patriots new head coach Mike Vrabel, and I love the improvements the team has made throughout the offseason. It’s clear that the Patriots were building for this season, and I can’t ignore the possibility of a surge — especially since I am expecting two other division teams to be non-factors in the end. I’m not ready to claim that quarterback Drake Maye is the answer for New England, but I’ve seen what Vrabel did in Tennessee without any true superstar quarterbacks, and I have confidence in his ability to produce offense this season.

AFC South