I’m going to let you in on a little secret. I made a slight change to my schedule this year and made a conscious effort to trim down how much I am writing for a given pick.
Halfway through the year, the results have been quite good.
But, let me be clear. As always, it is important to note that there is no singular pattern that works. There is no writing schedule that is inherently better-or-worse than another one. And there are no changes on my end that will lead to successes or failures — other than going against trends I believe are helpful.
I wanted to lead with this because it is interesting that, despite openly acknowledging that I made some changes and we have had a great first-half of the season, they are unrelated. It just feels like now is the right time to share it because it cannot be perceived as a negative change or approach.
Basically, I made it a point to focus less on how much I had to write for a given pick. Sometimes, over the last decade, I have felt that the pick can’t justify itself without a lengthy writeup. That just isn’t true. And it was freeing to remind myself that the pick is the pick and anything I write about it is simply to share my analysis. Sometimes that analysis is quick. So be it.
With that, we move into the second-half of the year. As always, I am inclined to urge everyone to exercise caution after back-to-back great weeks, but that doesn’t mean we can slow down in trying to figure out the best way to attack the games in front of us.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or Fanatics Sportsbook (formerly PointsBet). All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2025 Season: 33-21 (Last Week: 5-1)
(2024 Season: 65-57) (2023 Season: 63-61-4) (2022 Season: 54-54-5) (2021 Season: 55-50) (2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (11-Year Total: 646-561-30)
All Picks Against Spread – 2025 Season: 73-62 (Last Week: 11-3)
(2024 Season: 148-136-1) (2023 Season: 142-135-8) (2022 Season: 143-132-9) (2021 Season: 158-126-2) (2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (11-Year Total: 1554-1379-76)
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos
I’m not sure which one will be more impactful, but I’m also not sure if it matters.
The Denver Broncos just won their sixth consecutive game, and did so by another late miracle comeback. They are now 7-2 on the year and tied for the best record in the sport.
The Las Vegas Raiders just lost. Again. For the sixth time. In eight games.
Much like we’ve seen in other matchups, there is as great a disparity between the two combatants as it gets — especially in the division. But the mention of the “division” is not a throwaway comment.