I knew it. I wrote it in last week’s introduction, but this year’s infamous Week 2 just felt different than the rest. It was less about overreaction — the key to a good Week 2 set of picks — and more about… close losses. That’s really what happened in the end. Many of the picks were settled within a point or so from the final spread, and we ended up on the wrong side of many of them.
As always, this happens, and we move on from it.
The key is to find something positive that we can take into Week 3. Thankfully, we have it.
Unlike last week, there are plenty of ‘traps,’ and they found in the prototypical forms of outdated perceptions.
Put another way, it’s not too late for this year’s Week 3 to be as good to us as prior years’ Week 2 has been.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or Fanatics Sportsbook (formerly PointsBet). All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2025 Season: 6-6 (Last Week: 2-4)
(2024 Season: 65-57) (2023 Season: 63-61-4) (2022 Season: 54-54-5) (2021 Season: 55-50) (2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (11-Year Total: 646-561-30)
All Picks Against Spread – 2025 Season: 14-18 (Last Week: 5-11)
(2024 Season: 148-136-1) (2023 Season: 142-135-8) (2022 Season: 143-132-9) (2021 Season: 158-126-2) (2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (11-Year Total: 1554-1379-76)
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
We are absolutely getting put to the test right away in Week 3, as the division opponents in the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills carry quite a few different trends with them.
The first is, as I just wrote, the divisional nature of the game. As we see constantly, it can occasionally have surprising results — take, for example, one of the wildest games I can remember between the Giants and Cowboys last week.
Outside of the reality that each team knows what it is about to face, we also have them individually coming off performances that were, in the grand scheme of what we are trying to pick here, surprising. Sure, many people wouldn’t be shocked to see one of the best teams the league — Buffalo — beat up one of the worst — the Jets — and the pitiful performance by Miami was a direct encore to a disaster on Opening Day. But that’s the point.