That was nice.
Even though I wrote that we should not expect a better week because of how much more ‘normal’ it seemed, we had one of our best in the history of this website. That, in itself, is abnormal. As I often write after weeks with an outstanding success rate, we simply cannot rely on that on a regular basis. Otherwise, we would always wait for such a setup and only target those opportunities.
The good news is that we have those wins from last week and can apply them to how we want to view this next set of games. Because the other benefit of what we just saw is that favorites had an outrageously good weekend. Depending on where you look, it seems like only two or three failed to cover the spread. Since I like to lean on underdogs as much as possible, pairing one of our great weeks with one in which favorites also thrived gives us a nice boost in advance of other weeks when underdogs will start to show their value.
Until then, we can move into the second-half of the season with a little positive momentum. There will certainly be some teams looking to do the same.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or Fanatics Sportsbook (formerly PointsBet). All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2025 Season: 28-20 (Last Week: 4-1)
(2024 Season: 65-57) (2023 Season: 63-61-4) (2022 Season: 54-54-5) (2021 Season: 55-50) (2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (11-Year Total: 646-561-30)
All Picks Against Spread – 2025 Season: 62-59 (Last Week: 10-3)
(2024 Season: 148-136-1) (2023 Season: 142-135-8) (2022 Season: 143-132-9) (2021 Season: 158-126-2) (2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (11-Year Total: 1554-1379-76)
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins
For the past few weeks, everything I have written about the Baltimore Ravens centered around the status of quarterback Lamar Jackson. The same is true to an extent, this week, but we have an even better way to target this game.
The Miami Dolphins finally learned how to win a game and do so by actually playing well — as opposed to facing a Jets team that finally secured its first victory last week. Is it enough for the football-watching world to suddenly believe in the Dolphins? Absolutely not. But there appeared to be no hope prior to last week. It was undoubtedly rock bottom.
This is good news