I’ve written it for weeks, but this has been one of the best regular seasons we have had in quite some time. Indeed, the finale was not what we wanted, but it could not undo the foundation we built.
We now shift gears as we head into the playoffs. There are still plenty of opportunities for value — which is where we direct most of our attention — but there are likely to be fewer ‘traps’ on a regular basis. That’s because almost no outcome should surprise anyone. Indeed, there are some teams that are expected to win a given matchup, but no single result will be as shocking as a random ‘upset’ in the middle of the year between a Super Bowl hopeful and a team vying for a top pick in next year’s Draft.
With that, we head into the playoffs — and a week with a handful of small spreads — with a goal that matches that of the games’ participants: we simply want to keep winning.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or Fanatics Sportsbook (formerly PointsBet). All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2025 Season: 62-50-1 (Last Week: 3-4)
(2024 Season: 65-57) (2023 Season: 63-61-4) (2022 Season: 54-54-5) (2021 Season: 55-50) (2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (11-Year Total: 646-561-30)
All Picks Against Spread – 2025 Season: 147-124-1 (Last Week: 6-10)
(2024 Season: 148-136-1) (2023 Season: 142-135-8) (2022 Season: 143-132-9) (2021 Season: 158-126-2) (2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (11-Year Total: 1554-1379-76)
Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers
I wrote in the introduction to this column that we have “a handful of small spreads” this week. The first matchup of the weekend is not one of them. It is the extreme outlier.
As I do every year, I write my weekly picks column for the Wild Card Round of the playoffs in conjunction with my postseason predictions article so that I can move between the two and see if any numbers are misaligned. Looking at the Los Angeles Rams and Carolina Panthers, they are directly synchronized between the massive spread and their respective odds to win the Super Bowl.
The Rams have the second-shortest odds to win the Super Bowl and the largest spread of the weekend. Conversely, the Panthers have the longest odds — and even longer than last year’s longest — and are obviously on the receiving end of the number on Saturday.
Once again, this makes sense. Not only have