I try to always exercise some caution as we enter this next phase of the regular season. That is, we have now had a few excellent weeks where the picks have aligned largely with how we like to approach them, and we might be overextended.
It’s fair. If it happens to teams, it can happen to us.
That does not mean we change our approach — especially after such a hot start. It’s just a hesitation we should give before diving too heavily into a shifting placement of value.
That’s really the key. The teams that were forgotten or overlooked entering this season are probably now in the spotlight. There are, of course, some places where we can still look for what we need, and that’s exactly where we will turn our attention in Week 4.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or Fanatics Sportsbook (formerly PointsBet). All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2026 Season: 14-7 (Last Week: 5-2)
(2024 Season: 65-57) (2023 Season: 63-61-4) (2022 Season: 54-54-5) (2021 Season: 55-50) (2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (2025 Season: 63-53-1) (12-Year Total: 709-614-31)
All Picks Against Spread – 2026 Season: 30-18 (Last Week: 9-7)
(2024 Season: 148-136-1) (2023 Season: 142-135-8) (2022 Season: 143-132-9) (2021 Season: 158-126-2) (2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (2025 Season: 151-133-1) (12-Year Total: 1705-1512-77)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
I truly can’t believe that either the Pittsburgh Steelers or Cleveland Browns will be 3-1 to start the season. Then again, I am making that comment solely because of name value, which means I need to immediately step back and determine how misplaced it is. Or isn’t.
Starting with the squad that generally has the worse name value of the two, it is quite easy to dismiss the Browns as they fight for an even more impressive record. After all, Cleveland was already floating the idea of a quarterback change after just one game. I find it highly suspicious to think that internal fear has been alleviated.
But it’s Pittsburgh that is more head-scratching, and it’s for a strange reason.