That was a little better. But, in fairness, we knew it should be. This is a lengthy process and one that changes over time. Winning for a bunch of weeks and then losing one — even in spectacular fashion — should result in a reset.
And it did.
Now what?
Really, we continue into a dangerous territory. We’re past the point of wondering about the quality of certain teams and, as we saw in recent weeks, the spreads are starting to get eerily close to what is actually happening on the scoreboard. That’s not a good sign, because it means the margin-of-error has shrunk.
Our goal is to shift with the spreads now. Not literally in the sense that we will follow them, but in how we approach and analyze certain teams. Because there is always value to be found somewhere.
Below are predictions for each game against the spread. Spreads have been taken from various websites and are subject to change. The spread in parenthesis denotes the selected team. Spread is listed as advertised number and odds at either DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, or Fanatics Sportsbook (formerly PointsBet). All efforts were made to provide picks at -110 or better, with some stretching to a -125 if no reasonable advertised spread was found.
*Confidence Picks – 2026 Season: 19-15 (Last Week: 3-4)
(2024 Season: 65-57) (2023 Season: 63-61-4) (2022 Season: 54-54-5) (2021 Season: 55-50) (2020 Season: 53-42-3) (2019 Season: 57-43-3) (2018 Season: 63-48-4) (2017 Season: 53-48-4) (2016 Season: 53-67-3) (2015 Season: 69-45-2) (2014 Season: 61-46-2) (2025 Season: 63-53-1) (12-Year Total: 709-614-31)
All Picks Against Spread – 2026 Season: 41-37-1 (Last Week: 8-7)
(2024 Season: 148-136-1) (2023 Season: 142-135-8) (2022 Season: 143-132-9) (2021 Season: 158-126-2) (2020 Season: 132-128-7) (2019 Season: 142-118-7) (2018 Season: 137-118-12) (2017 Season: 137-119-11) (2016 Season: 123-136-8) (2015 Season: 143-117-7) (2014 Season: 149-114-4) (2025 Season: 151-133-1) (12-Year Total: 1705-1512-77)
Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos
If we want to peek ahead to what will be a running theme of this week — and was truly the same last week, too — then we should look no further than the spread. Specifically, the direction in which it is pointing following recent events.
The Seattle Seahawks are going on the road