In this column, I go through the night’s NHL games and give my reads solely based on lines, odds, betting trends, and how I perceive others perceive the game. It’s the reading of all lines, and I try to keep a free-flowing, train-of-thought approach. The purpose of these reads is to find an edge either in DFS, actual picks, or both. Sometimes, no edge exists — or simply can’t be found. I make it a point to note that, as well. As always, please do your own research and due diligence and play responsibly.
CGY/TOR – There’s definitely some level of protection with the point total as high as it is, and it makes me think we shouldn’t see more than seven goals — and that six is much more likely. The weird part is that people believe it, so why is the number so high? Again, it’s probably because it will land on either six or seven. That makes me want some offense here. The odds for TOR have dropped, but it’s partly because people are fine with taking CGY as an underdog. That changes when we look at the PL, as we’re seeing the infamous “if the favorite wins, they win big, otherwise it’s the underdog winning outright” setup. This game should really be 3-2/4-2/4-3, which means that at least one offense is a definite, and the other is a “probably.” If pushed, I’d actually call this game 4-3 CGY.
VAN/MTL – Somewhat similar setup to CGY/TOR in that the point total is high with the odds on the under and people buying into it. It’s a little less aggressive and protective, so I will say this game lands on six goals — which means that one team probably wins 4-2. Which? Again, people like the underdog (VAN) in a win or they like MTL to win by at least two goals. The real way to handle this setup is to