We’re now halfway through the 2020 season and teams are either starting to transition into a more complete version of themselves or still struggling to get out of their own way. No matter the direction, we are paying attention to all angles to determine how we can best capitalize.
Sporfolio’s NFL Daily Fantasy Sports game-by-game analysis columns are driven by expected game flow. Based on a combination of our Week 9 NFL picks against the spread and our expectations for a given game, we project the actions necessary to make these picks come to fruition. We aim to pinpoint players integral to our predicted game flow for each game of the week. We also include high-scoring and low-scoring matchups that can be used for either DFS plays or over-under picks in our new Top Games to Target column.
Please Note: Our ‘Must-Owns’ are either players around which we are building our entire roster or the top target we want, not considering salary restraints. Which means that some ‘must-owns’ will not make it into our final lineups.
Luke May is our resident NFL DFS expert, and Mario Mergola operates Sporfolio as our expert for NFL Picks Against the Spread.
Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While the Broncos’ comeback victory was impressive, it felt flukey to me, and looking at their performance over the last few weeks, I’m not buying the turnaround. The game flow, in a great matchup, very well may lead to a lot of volume for Drew Lock and some receivers, but my focus here is primarily on the Falcons. Their offense has accumulated over 300 yards of offense in every game this season, and in all but one of those games they totaled at least 370 yards. There is no reason to not invest once again, and some Denver ownership is likely viable as well.
Targets: Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant, Matt Ryan, Todd Gurley II and Hayden Hurst
Fades: Broncos running backs
Must-Owns: Julio Jones (if Calvin Ridley is out, but he is a target either way)
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Don’t look now, but the Atlanta Falcons are no longer bleeding points! Indeed, they still rank as one of the worst defenses in the league, but the Falcons have allowed no more than 23 points in four consecutive games. That’s a far cry from the 30 or more points allowed in the first four games of the season. The Denver Broncos’ offense is still one of the worst in the league — even with 31 points from last week’s game — and I’m no longer eager to attack Atlanta. I also won’t disrespect the Broncos’ defense and fill my roster with Falcons players.
Targets: Matt Ryan, Hayden Hurst, and Drew Lock
Fades: Mostly everyone else
Must-Owns: Julio Jones
Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Another week, and yet another game in which you shouldn’t hesitate to roll out Russell Wilson. This Bills defense is nothing to be overly concerned about, and frankly, there is no matchup that feels scary for Wilson and this offense. On the other hand, after an impressive start to the game last week, the Seahawks defense did get torched by Nick Mullens who came in after Jimmy Garopollo left with an injury. This defense still has major issues, and this is a game that the Bills’ offense has both the matchup and game flow that may force them to be productive.
Targets: Any regular offensive player for both teams
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None at the moment, but this game is a must target.
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I keep writing the same thing about the Buffalo Bills, even if there had not been an avenue for diving in completely. That is, the Bills’ defense is much worse than its reputation, and I finally get to use fantasy players against it in the form of the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle basically has no desire to try to win a game by scoring fewer than 30 points, and we can expect another offense-centric approach on Sunday. Of course, the Seahawks can’t stop anyone, and the Bills’ offense has a chance to balance out some of its numbers that were trending too fare down for its liking.
Targets: As usual with games involving the Seahawks, everyone from both teams
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None actually, but it’s probably a necessity to own at least one player from here
Chicago Bears at Tennessee Titans
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: All season I had been talking about these two teams winning at a pace they had no business winning at, and finally, the losses are starting to catch up. With that said, someone is going to have to win this game, and for me, it has to be the team that has a real offense: the Titans. The Bears just eclipsed 300 total yards of offense for the first time since Nick Foles became the starter, and I simply cannot get behind a team knowing that. The Bears defense is good, but they are not a team to be afraid to target players against. Ryan Tannehill is coming off two consecutive down games by his standards, and I like him to rebound this week and lead the Titans back into the win column.
Targets: Allen Robinson II, Darnell Mooney, Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown and Corey Davis
Fades: None
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Nothing has changed for the Chicago Bears as they have shown the ability to do something on offense, but not the sustainability required to keep our attention. Someone like Darnell Mooney was an ideal pick in last week’s game against the Saints, and he might be in-play again, but the key is to avoid too much exposure where possible. On the other side of the game, we’re finally seeing some weaknesses with the Tennessee Titans, but the rushing attack never quits. Chicago’s defense is better against the pass than the run, so we’re likely to see a heavy dose of running back Derrick Henry. Then again, we expected this same approach against the Bengals, last week, and Henry ‘only’ had 18 carries.
Targets: Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, Darnell Mooney, and Jimmy Graham (if healthy)
Fades: None in particular, but I wouldn’t go overboard from this game
Must-Owns: None
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While this game stacks up as one of the best of the week, it is a matchup that is almost impossible to have any fantasy interest in. Both of these teams boast dominant defenses that have been incredibly difficult to put up big yardage totals on. On top of that, both offenses have been average at best, and neither team has had any players sustain fantasy relevance outside of Lamar Jackson. There is talent on both teams, so a big play can happen, but there is no reason to be targeting this game outside of purely making a contrarian lineup.
Targets: Either defense
Fades: All offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I have been buying into the Indianapolis Colts’ defense on a regular basis, as the team absolutely shuts down every passing attack. The problem with Sunday’s matchup is that the Baltimore Ravens are continuing to see how risky it is to lean on the pass with the offense built around the run game. As usual, Baltimore has enough weapons that pinpointing one is a risky proposition, but I will try to have some exposure to the Ravens’ offense. The Colts also lead a relatively balanced attack, as no singular player on the team has reached 40 targets on the year.
Targets: Lamar Jackson, running backs from either team, and possibly either defense
Fades: Most offensive players
Must-Owns: None
Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: As we say pretty much every single week, there is no reason to back off the Chiefs now. They have elite weapons at every single position, and they are going to find a way to produce no matter who they play. A matchup with a middle of the road Panthers defense is nothing to be nervous about whatsoever. The big question for this game is can the Panthers keep up at all? We have seen plenty of ups and downs throughout the season, but overall this offense has been fairly reliable and productive. The Chiefs defense continues to prove they are good, but I like the Panthers odds this week to be effective. Not effective enough to win, but effective enough to have plenty of offense and turn this into a high scoring game for both sides.
Targets: Almost all offensive players for both teams
Fades: Mike Davis (with Christian McCaffrey expected to return Davis is way overpriced now for his likely minimal volume)
Must-Owns: None, but I will have ownership for both teams in this game
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: If we’re looking for ‘storylines,’ then the first is the potential return of Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey. Simply put, if he’s playing on Sunday, he’ll be in at least one of my lineups. Elsewhere, the Panthers’ offense has been respectable in basically every game, and it should have a nice uptick in volume as it tries to keep pace with the Kansas City Chiefs. As always, I have no problem using someone from Kansas City to gain some exposure to the Chiefs’ incredible offense.
Targets: Everyone from either team is in-play
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Christian McCaffrey
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: After a rocky start to the season, the Vikings bounced back with a major win last week, and are now approaching a potentially very easy stretch of games. It starts this week against the Lions, and I am expecting them to continue what we saw last week. With Dalvin Cook healthy, this offense has no problems moving the ball, and their defense should start to show improvements after making progress last week. The only major question mark here is whether or not Matthew Stafford is going to be cleared to play or not. If he is active, there is some appeal in the Lions offense playing from behind, but if he is out, then this game has blowout written all over it.
Targets: D’Andre Swift, Marvin Jones Jr., T.J. Hockenson (all Lions subject to changes based on Stafford news) and Adam Thielen
Fades: None (unless Stafford is out then fade the Lions offense)
Must-Owns: Dalvin Cook and Vikings defense (if Stafford is out)
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: The Detroit Lions appeared as if they had turned a corner defensively, only to be shredded by the Colts for 41 points. Unfortunately for Detroit, I’m more inclined to expect them to stick with the poor defensive performances that we’ve seen than the slow transition to being able to stop teams. The good news is that the Lions almost never go away without a fight, and it means that their offense always provides some value. Indeed, Detroit will be without its best wide receiver on Sunday, but this may help us hone in on targets.
Targets: Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, Marvin Jones, Jr., Danny Amendola, and T.J. Hockenson
Fades: None, but all of Detroit’s offense gets downgraded if quarterback Matthew Stafford were to be inactive
Must-Owns: None
New York Giants at Washington Football Team
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Despite this being a potentially critical game within this division, there is no reason to target this game. These teams are two of three worst offenses in the entire NFL in total yards. There is some talent on each team, but for a slew of reasons, neither offense has been able to sustain any sort of efficiency at all. To make matters worse, Washington has one of the best defenses in the league, and the Giants defense has been surprisingly stingy all season. Washington likely wins this game, but there is nothing to like here outside of the defenses.
Targets: Giants defense
Fades: All offensive players
Must-Owns: Football Team defense
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I’m not going to completely ignore the game between the Washington Football Team and New York Giants, but I can’t expect anything more than a sneaky one-off. In that regard, I will consider a pass-catcher from New York as we are starting to see some life from different areas of the offense. Still, my exposure will be low because of the matchup with Washington’s fourth-ranked defense. The one-off from Washington is simple. I’m basically always looking at Terry McLaurin unless a head-to-head battle with a specific defense — or defender — is concerning. Here, it isn’t.
Targets: Both defenses or small exposure to a pass-catcher
Fades: Everyone else
Must-Owns: None, but Terry McLaurin, as usual, is close
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Don’t let their bye week distract you from the fact that the Texans offense has produced at least 365 yards of total offense in each of their last four games. Within that four game stretch, they put up a whopping 486 yards against this same Jaguars team. In that game, the Jaguars had Gardner Minshew, and they still could not compete. Look ahead to this game, they are now starting Jake Luton at quarterback, and their defense is still a complete and total disaster. It’s hard to see how the Texans don’t win big in this one.
Targets: Deshaun Watson, Will Fuller V, Brandin Cooks and Texans defense
Fades: Jaguars offense
Must-Owns: David Johnson
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Football fans tend to overreact to injuries — especially at the quarterback position — but the Jacksonville Jaguars are undeniably in trouble. They barely had an offense with Gardner Minshew under center, and it’s unlikely that rookie Jake Luton is the answer. I’ll probably use running back James Robinson in a point-per-reception format, but not much else. Otherwise, I love the idea of stacking the Houston Texans, as they slide in as this week’s version of last week’s Chiefs.
Targets: James Robinson, Texans defense, and everyone on offense from Houston — with a preference to Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb in the passing game
Fades: Everyone else from Jacksonville
Must-Owns: At least someone from the Texans — I will be using quarterback Deshaun Watson somewhere
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: In case you aren’t sure just how good Justin Herbert has been, the Chargers rank second in the league in total yards. With that in mind, and the fact that the Raiders defense cannot stop anybody — don’t let last week’s hurricane game against the Browns trick you into thinking otherwise — it is hard to see the Chargers offense not having a big game this week. We are usually pretty high on the Raiders’ offense in general, and considering the Chargers somehow always find a way to lose, the Raiders offense will have to be good in order to keep up and eventually find a way to win. This game has the makings of a back and forth, high scoring, divisional showdown.
Targets: Passing game for both offenses
Fades: Josh Jacobs and both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Simply put, the only way that the game between the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers is not high-scoring is if the organizations collectively decide to slow down the pace of the contest and try to win in methodical fashion. This could happen considering the Chargers cannot win a game despite extraordinary offensive production. Still, unless a conscious effort is made otherwise, we should expect both offenses to have a big day on Sunday.
Targets: Everyone on both offenses
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: None
Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: When I look at the skill position players still on the Cowboys roster, I want to say it is impossible for them to continue scoring ten or fewer points like they have for three straight games now. While that thought does exist, it is hard to have even a glimmer of hope in Garrett Gilbert or Cooper Rush leading this offense to a good game against an elite Steelers defense. The Steelers should walk all over the Cowboys this week, and if you want to put money on the opposite, all I can say is good luck.
Targets: Chase Claypool, Eric Ebron and Steelers defense
Fades: Cowboys offense
Must-Owns: James Conner
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: I keep writing about how willing I am to own every player that faces the Dallas Cowboys’ pathetic defense, and nothing changes on Sunday. Everyone is in-play from the Pittsburgh Steelers. I also keep writing about how scared I am to target offensive players against the Steelers. No one is in-play from the Cowboys. That’s a little bit dramatic. Dallas will probably not get shutout, and it does have a tremendous amount of talent where I can actually see the road to a ‘contrarian’ lineup doing quite well. Still, I won’t expect anything big from Dallas.
Targets: Everyone from Pittsburgh, including the defense
Fades: Everyone from Dallas, including the defense
Must-Owns: JuJu Smith-Schuster
Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: While I may have been wrong about the outcome of the Dolphins game last week, I completely stand by logic. Everything that happened in that game went in their favor to an almost impossible degree. I cannot, and will not, get excited about a team that won a game with 145 total yards of offense and two turnovers. They may have won comfortably, but it was not a formula for sustaining success, and in another tough matchup all around, I will still be way down on the Dolphins. That feeling gets even further amplified by the fact that the Cardinals are coming off a bye week and got to sit at home last Sunday and watch every single play from Tua Tagovailoa’s first start in order to prepare for him this week.
Targets: Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins and Cardinals defense
Fades: Dolphins offense
Must-Owns: Chase Edmonds
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: With both the Miami Dolphins and Arizona Cardinals ranking no better than 20th in yards-allowed-per-game, we can see a clear route to points at first glance. I’m not so sure it happens that easily. Arizona has allowed 20 points or fewer in four-of-its-seven games, and the Dolphins are currently allowing the least points-per-game in the league. There will be offense, of course, as Arizona ranks best in yards-gained-per-game, but I would be careful before diving into this matchup too eagerly.
Targets: Kyler Murray, Chase Edmonds, DeAndre Hopkins, and DeVante Parker
Fades: Everyone else
Must-Owns: None, but Chase Edmonds is close
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Something about the Saints has simply looked off all season long. Almost everyone who has watched them has said they haven’t looked right, but the important question to ask is, “Do the numbers support the eye test?” The Saints rank tenth in total yards for and seventh in points for and have managed to score at least 24 points in every single game this season. Their efficiency numbers aren’t quite as good, but one way or another they are finding a way to get the job done offensively, and with the dink and dunk style of offense they run, I don’t see a matchup with the elite Buccaneers defense being a major issue for them. With all of that said, I think the Buccaneers have something to prove to these Saints after their Week 1 ugly showing, so my money is on a Bucs victory. The addition of Antonio Brown to this offense could be what they need to really push them over the edge and make them nearly impossible for a defense to match up with them.
Targets: Pretty much any offensive regular
Fades: Both defenses
Must-Owns: Alvin Kamara
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: For starters, the main storyline for Sunday Night Football’s showdown between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints focuses entirely on the teams’ wide receivers. The Buccaneers are expected to debut Antonio Brown, while the Saints might finally see the return of Michael Thomas. Both are a must for me, even if it means sacrificing elsewhere. I know it’s the obvious route — and I hate ‘obvious’ — but I’ll have to load up on offense from this game in my Primetime lineup.
Targets: Tom Brady, Ronald Jones, Mike Evans, Alvin Kamara, and only the defenses if you want to be ‘contrarian’
Fades: None, but Drew Brees is close
Must-Owns: Antonio Brown and Michael Thomas (if active, otherwise Alvin Kamara slides into this space)
New England Patriots at New York Jets
Luke’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: It’s always a bit of a letdown when a Monday night football game is meaningless and likely ugly game to end the week, but that is the case this week. The Jets’ offense ranks dead last in the league in total yards and is also the worst team in the league in terms of net yards per pass attempt. The Patriots offense has looked horrendous since Week 4, but even during this stretch of poor play, they have shown they are still a capable running team. They rank 4th in the league in yards per attempt on the ground, and considering the Jets defense is nothing to worry about, the Patriots will likely lean on the run game all game long. This has the makings of a low scoring, run heavy game where the Patriots control the ball for most of the game before it ends mercifully for everyone.
Targets: Cam Newton, Damien Harris, James White, Patriots defense and Jamison Crowder (Braxton Berrios or Denzel Mims if Crowder is out)
Fades: Most of the Jets offense
Must-Owns: None
Mario’s DFS Take
Storyline/Notes/Thoughts: Even though I just wrote about using the offensive players from Sunday Night Football in a Primetime lineup, I’m not completely sold on the idea of ignoring Monday night’s game for offense. The best part is that I can justify the use of players from both the New England Patriots and New York Jets. For New England, it faces a Jets team that has allowed at least 30 points in five-of-their-last-seven games. For New York, it’s simply the most ‘contrarian’ play we could have, coupled with the fact that the Jets’ horrific offense will be on full display for the entire football-watching world to see. It’s hard to imagine they remain completely inept under the national spotlight, as their best offensive game of the year took place in Week 4 on Thursday Night Football.
Targets: Simply put, if you’re going ‘contrarian,’ then load up on Jets’ offensive players — Sam Darnold, Denzel Mims, Jamison Crowder — and, otherwise, lean on the defenses and Cam Newton
Fades: Jets running backs
Must-Owns: None