Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Daily Fantasy Hockey Morning Coffee. Now that the All-Star break is over we’re back with a nice 12-game slate to work with for our DFS needs.
Tonight’s Slate
Ottawa Senators @ Carolina Hurricanes (Carolina, -170, 5.5 over/under)
San Jose Sharks @ Pittsburgh Penguins (Pittsburgh, -180, 5.5 over/under)
New Jersey Devils @ Buffalo Sabres (even, 5.5 over/under)
Florida Panthers @ New York Islanders (New York, -160, 6.5 over/under)
Anaheim Ducks @ Boston Bruins (Boston, -150, 5.5 over/under)
Minnesota Wild @ Columbus Blue Jackets (Columbus, -125, 5.5 over/under)
Chicago Blackhawks @ Nashville Predators (Nashville, -175, 6 over/under)
Montreal Canadiens @ St. Louis Blues (St. Louis, -180, 5.5 over/under)
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Winnipeg Jets (Tampa Bay, -120, 6 over/under)
Los Angeles Kings @ Dallas Stars (Dallas, -176, 5.5 over/under)
Vegas Golden Knights @ Calgary Flames (Calgary, -110, 5.5 over/under)
Colorado Avalanche @ Vancouver Canucks (even, 5.5 over/under)
Tonight I want to start much of my roster construction around the New York Islanders, and for tournaments purposes I wouldn’t mind grabbing both sides of this game. Tonight the Islanders get a Florida Panthers team that has allowed a league-worst 4.00 goals against per game over nine games in January. Over those nine games the Panthers have a league second-worst save percentage at .886 percent. Additionally, Florida has a terrible penalty-kill rate of 71.4 percent in January.
Over 11 games in January the Islanders have scored an NHL seventh-best 3.18 goals for per game. The Islanders always make an intriguing tournament option, as we noted in our “Top Stacks” column before the All-Star break, they either have none of the offense or all of the offense:
Jan. 5: zero goals scored
Jan 7: five goals scored
Jan. 13:seven goals scored
Jan. 16: one goals scored
Jan 18: two goals scored
Jan 20: seven goals scored
Jan 22: two goals scored
Jan 25: two goals scored
And the Islanders have a great chance tonight to get some offensive punch back in their game against a Panthers team that has three straight games and allowed 14 goals over that losing streak (four of the goals against coming on the power play.
Our New York Snapshot
| Scor | Scor | Scor | Goal | Goal | Goal | Assi | Assi | Assi | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Pos | G | A | PTS | EV | PP | SH | EV | PP | SH | S | BLK |
| John Tavares | C | 26 | 31 | 57 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 154 | 24 |
| Josh Bailey | RW | 12 | 42 | 54 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 23 | 19 | 0 | 80 | 22 |
| Mathew Barzal | C | 16 | 35 | 51 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 25 | 10 | 0 | 109 | 22 |
| Anders Lee | LW | 27 | 15 | 42 | 20 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 119 | 25 |
| Jordan Eberle | RW | 17 | 22 | 39 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 110 | 16 |
| Nick Leddy | D | 6 | 23 | 29 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 8 | 0 | 106 | 74 |
| Anthony Beauvillier | LW | 12 | 5 | 17 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 60 | 14 |
| Brock Nelson | LW | 10 | 7 | 17 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 87 | 20 |
| Cal Clutterbuck | RW | 8 | 8 | 16 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 73 | 32 |
| Ryan Pulock | D | 4 | 11 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 78 | 39 |
| Scott Mayfield | D | 2 | 10 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 63 |
| Adam Pelech | D | 1 | 11 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 60 | 86 |
| Thomas Hickey | D | 2 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 49 | 55 |
| Jason Chimera | LW | 2 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 63 | 13 |
| Dennis Seidenberg | D | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 28 |
| Alan Quine | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 9 |
| Team Total | 169 | 291 | 460 | 132 | 32 | 5 | 226 | 62 | 3 | 1562 | 763 |
Our New York Stacks
Line One
ANDERS LEE $6.6K
JOHN TAVARES $8.4K
JOSH BAILEY $7.0K
Line Two
ANTHONY BEAUVILLIER $4.1K
MATHEW BARZAL $6.3K
JORDAN EBERLE $5.9K
Power Play Stack
ANDERS LEE
JOHN TAVARES
JOSH BAILEY
MATHEW BARZAL
(D) NICK LEDDY $5.3K
Power Play Two Stack
ANTHONY BEAUVILLIER
BROCK NELSON $3.8K
JORDAN EBERLE
SEBASTIAN AHO $3.5K
(D) RYAN PULOCK $4.0K
The reason I want both sides of this game for tournaments purposes is New York has allowed 41 goals this month. Over their past 10 games the Islanders have the worst SCA/60 at 36.58 and the worst HDCA/60 in the league at 14.68.
The Islanders heat map is very telling:
map courtesy of NaturalStatTrick
We can from the heat map that New York is allowing a ton of scoring chances but also generating a lot of scoring chances. While they are last in the league over their past 10 games in SCA/60 they are ninth-best in terms of SCF/60 at 29.96. In terms of CF% the Islanders have the second-worst percentage in the NHL over their past 10 games at 44.97 percent. Look to EVGENY DADONOV, ALEKSANDER BARKOV, JONATHAN HUBERDEAU, VINCENT TROCHECK as tournament options on the Florida side to help fill out your lineups tonight.
Tonight I’m also going to dip back into the Boston Bruins well once again (this is not a homer move, I swear). It’s difficult to ignore their current five-game winning streak. And while they only put up three goals against the lowly Ottawa Senators before the All-Star break we can see the Bruins simply dominated the action:
Credit: Hockey-Reference
-One note, the game started with a 6 over/under and it has since moved to 6.5.
The Bruins lead the NHL in scoring in January with an average of 4.10 goals for game. In addition, Boston’s power play clicked on a league ninth-best 25.0 percent of their power play chances. Over their past 10 games Boston has a CF% of 54.35 percent (second-best in the NHL) while Anaheim has a CF% of 48.88 percent over that same time frame.
I expect a good game tonight — and Anaheim has won four of their past five games — but I am interested in the Boston power play as Anaheim has allowed six power play goals over their past six games. And while Boston will be without Brad Marchand as he serves his suspension, it gives us an amazing value play in DANTON HEINEN. As of this writing it seems Heinen will get into that left wing slot on Boston’s top line with PATRICE BERGERON and DAVID PASTRNAK. We also should get this line together on Boston’s first power play unit — making for a line that gives us great upside.
In just over 70 minutes of ice time together in 5v5 situations this first line has a CF% of 52.55 percent, a GF/60 of 3.4 and an offensive zone faceoff start percentange of 76.92 percent.
Our Boston Snapshot
| Scor | Scor | Scor | Goal | Goal | Goal | Assi | Assi | Assi | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Pos | G | A | PTS | EV | PP | SH | EV | PP | SH | S | BLK |
| Brad Marchand | LW | 21 | 29 | 50 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 104 | 17 |
| David Pastrnak | RW | 20 | 26 | 46 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 17 | 9 | 0 | 130 | 17 |
| Patrice Bergeron | C | 20 | 22 | 42 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 149 | 33 |
| Danton Heinen | C | 11 | 22 | 33 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 9 | 0 | 74 | 25 |
| Torey Krug | D | 7 | 21 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 91 | 43 |
| Jake Debrusk | LW | 11 | 14 | 25 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 95 | 21 |
| David Krejci | C | 8 | 16 | 24 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 53 | 18 |
| Riley Nash | C | 7 | 15 | 22 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 73 | 44 |
| David Backes | RW | 8 | 11 | 19 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 81 | 14 |
| Ryan Spooner | C | 7 | 11 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 44 | 9 |
| Zdeno Chara | D | 4 | 9 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 79 | 83 |
| Tim Schaller | C | 6 | 6 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 73 | 43 |
| Anders Bjork | LW | 4 | 8 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 30 | 11 |
| Kevan Miller | D | 1 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 38 | 55 |
| Sean Kuraly | C | 3 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 94 | 13 |
| Noel Acciari | C | 6 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 24 |
| Matt Grzelcyk | D | 1 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 18 |
| Brandon Carlo | D | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 47 | 52 |
| Frank Vatrano | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 8 |
| Adam McQuaid | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 14 |
| Team Total | 153 | 265 | 418 | 117 | 32 | 4 | 199 | 61 | 5 | 1497 | 651 |
Our Boston Stacks
Line One
DANTON HEINEN $5.0K
PATRICE BERGERON $8.1K
DAVID PASTRNAK $7.4K
Line Two
JAKE DEBRUSK $4.3K
DAVID KREJCI $5.7K
RYAN SPOONER $4.7K
Line Three
ANDERS BJORK $3.4K
RILEY NASH $4.4K
DAVID BACKES $5.2K
Power Play Stack
DANTON HEINEN
PATRICE BERGERON
DAVID PASTRNAK
RYAN SPOONER
(D) TOREY KRUG $5.5K
Power Play Two Stack
JAKE DEBRUSK
DAVID KREJCI
DAVID BACKES
(D) MATT GRZELCYK $3.5K
(D) ZDENO CHARA $4.2K
The Pittsburgh Penguins are 7-3 over their past 10 games and have an offense that heated up in January with an average of 3.64 goals over 11 games this month. Over their past 10 games the Penguins have the third-best CF% in the league at 54.17 percent. Their SCF/60 over their past 10 games of 34.06 is the third-best in the NHL and their HDCF/60 over the past 10 games of 12.42 is the fourth-best in the league. Pittsburgh’s power play has clicked a great rate of 36.4 percent in January and on the season have the best power play in the NHL with a success rate of 27.1 percent.
San Jose is the 5-3 over their past 10 games with a CF% of 54.17 percent. Over 12 games this month San Jose has allowed an NHL seventh-worst 3.33 goals against per game and have had rough time on the penalty kill with a kill rate of just 76.5 percent this month. Over their past 10 games San Jose has a SCA/60 of 28.89 — 10th-worst over that time frame — and they have been allowing a lot of high danger chances with a HDCA/60 of 12.29 — fifth-worst in the NHL.
Our Pittsburgh Snapshot
| Scor | Scor | Scor | Goal | Goal | Goal | Assi | Assi | Assi | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Pos | G | A | PTS | EV | PP | SH | EV | PP | SH | S | BLK |
| Phil Kessel | RW | 21 | 37 | 58 | 12 | 9 | 0 | 13 | 24 | 0 | 183 | 13 |
| Sidney Crosby | C | 17 | 38 | 55 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 17 | 21 | 0 | 141 | 22 |
| Evgeni Malkin | C | 23 | 29 | 52 | 11 | 12 | 0 | 15 | 14 | 0 | 147 | 14 |
| Patric Hornqvist | RW | 15 | 14 | 29 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 151 | 45 |
| Kris Letang | D | 3 | 25 | 28 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 1 | 143 | 67 |
| Jake Guentzel | C | 15 | 10 | 25 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 114 | 28 |
| Conor Sheary | LW | 12 | 7 | 19 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 95 | 22 |
| Bryan Rust | RW | 4 | 15 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 63 | 26 |
| Olli Maatta | D | 3 | 15 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 111 | 67 |
| Riley Sheahan | C | 4 | 11 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 53 | 25 |
| Carl Hagelin | LW | 4 | 10 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 98 | 17 |
| Justin Schultz | D | 2 | 12 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 58 | 47 |
| Dominik Simon | C | 4 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 9 |
| Ian Cole | D | 2 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 51 | 75 |
| Tom Kuhnhackl | RW | 2 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 39 |
| Brian Dumoulin | D | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 63 | 85 |
| Matt Hunwick | D | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 48 |
| Ryan Reaves | RW | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 16 |
| Carter Rowney | RW | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 17 |
| Chad Ruhwedel | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 23 |
| Team Total | 149 | 260 | 409 | 96 | 48 | 5 | 159 | 95 | 6 | 1765 | 743 |
Our Pittsburgh Stacks
Line One
DOMINIK SIMON $4.2K
SIDNEY CROSBY $9.1K
CONOR SHEARY $4.9K
Line Two
CARL HAGELIN $3.5K
EVGENI MALKIN $8.3K
PATRIC HORNQVIST $6.1K
Line Three
JAKE GUENTZEL $5.3K
RILEY SHEAHAN $3.4K
PHIL KESSEL $8.0K
Power Play Stack
PATRIC HORNQVIST
EVGENI MALKIN
PHIL KESSEL
SIDNEY CROSBY
(D) KRIS LETANG $5.9K
Power Play Two Stack
DOMINIK SIMON
JAKE GUENTZEL
CONOR SHEARY
(D) OLLI MAATTA $4.1K
(D) JUSTIN SCHULTZ $4.2K
Notes
-Nashville is an interesting play tonight (and they have one of highest implied goal totals of the night) against the Chicago Blackhawks. Chicago only has two wins in their past seven games and have allowed four power play goals over their past four games. As a tournament strategy I may go with the blue line duo of Ellis/Josi. They will skate together at even strength and on Nashville’s first power play unit. It’s a lot to pay to fill out your “D” positions … but a strategy that could pay off.
-Carolina draws the Ottawa Senators tonight so they are instantly on my DFS radar. Look for a mini stack of Staal/Lindholm/Faulk as the basis for some of your rosters.
-Stats in this article are courtesy of Corsica, ESPN, NaturalStatTrick and Hockey-Reference and are up to date as of Jan 29.
-As always, please double check all line combos, injuries, and starting goalies prior to puck drop.